Forex Trading: NZDUSD 100 day moving average at 0.7665

The 100 day moving average (I sound like a broken record) comes in at 0.7665 (see chart below).  The pair has gotten below the level for three days in a row, but has not been able to close below the level.  A close below the level should attract longer term traders.  The pair closed below the level one day in 2008 (on January 21st - see chart below).  The next day, the pair rallied sharply higher. 

On Wednesday evening in NY, a key Retail Sales figure will be released. Growth has been slowing in New Zealand due to record interest rates.   The chances are that inflation will remain elevated due to higher food and energy prices.  However, if growth slows abruptly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, may be more inclined to ease given the restrictive monetary policy.