Housing is BAD.. we all know that, but...

Employment is the one bright light.  Although growth in employment is not stellar, it did rebound this month.  However, the inital claims last week showed a chink in the armour, climbing to 337,000. 

The key going forward for the Fed and the dollar will be how employmnet reacts.  If Initial Claims maintain the weaker employment tone this week, and we start seeing more layoffs, how can spending domestically be maintained?  Moreover, if US spending is needed for overseas economies to continue to expand at the rates they have, there could be some problems with the US multinationals who are relying on strong economies overseas to supplement earnings while domestic demand slows.     

I don't know how things actually pan out.  However, given the global economic dynamics, the greater reliance on trade, and the stock market implications including some rather lofty increases over the last few years, it makes markets much more risky at this point in the cycle.