USDCHF

Forex trading: What can I say? USDCHF hunts stops and bounces hard

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:49:34 -0500

The USDCHF has been followed closely as it tracked the 100 hour moving average. The pair has tested the key moving average around 100 times since November 6th and by and large the pair has bounced off the Moving average. On one occassion, the pair hunt out stops, hit them and rebounded.

It has now happened for a second time.

The pair broke through the 1.1963 level and moved sharply to 1.1943. One minute later it was back above the key level and moved sharply higher from there.

The action in the USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD this morning suggests to me that the action is still in the hands of shorter term traders. The moves can be reversed and reversed again at the drop of a hat. It is simply hard to trust. Be on alert.

Forex Trading: USDCHF stops hit on break of 1.1963

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:18:38 -0500

Stops were hit sending the pair down to 1.1943 low, and it bounced back to the key level. A move back below 1.1963 and close on the hourly will be key as the market has seen these stop hunting before. Low is 1.1943 for the day. A move below 1.1963 and 1.1943 will give confidence to the sellers.

Forex Trading: USDCHF testing the key moving average

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:14:35 -0500

It bounced once. The next time expect stops to be hit.

Forex Trading: USDCHF moving back toward 100 hour moving average

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:37:49 -0500

If you have been following the FXDD commentary, the 100 hour moving average has been the support level for the USDCHF for some time. There have been no fewer than 10 tests of the level since November 6th. The level comes in at 1.1962 currently. A break should lead to further liquidation in the pair. Watch the level closely.

Forex Trading: Dollar rallies. USDCHF makes new highs

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:46:17 -0500

Ironically, the weaker US data has led to increased dollar buying against the EUR, GBP and CHF. The USDJPY suffers. The flight to quality bid continues to be the trade du jour.

The USDCHF has moved back above the high for the day at 1.2025 as it continues its slow grind high.

The GBPUSD has moved below the consolidative range and also made new lows on the day. Support at 1.4890, the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above).

The EURUSD dipped below the trendline support at the 1.2593 level.

Forex Trading: USDCHF remains supported above key support. Retail Sales ignored

Greg Michalowski — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 10:51:41 -0500

Today in Switzerland, the YoY Retail Sales came in at a greater than expected +6.4%. This was much higher than the expected 0.8% rise. Despite the strong rise the Swiss Franc did not strengthen which is indicative of either the market does not believe the fundamental news and/or a bid remains for USDCHF.

The USDCHF continues to track the 100 hour moving average higher. The pair will need to break this moving average to scare the bulls. The current level comes in at the 1.1922 level. Watch this level going forward.

On the topside, 1.2025 is the high for the day. Yesterdays high was 1.2007. A failure to break above the high and a move below the 1.2000 level should lead to some profit taking later in the day.

Forex Trading: USDCHF still tracks the 100 hour moving average in choppy uptrend

Greg Michalowski — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 09:54:50 -0500

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The USDCHF made another test of the 100 hour moving average this morning and bounced. The pair has tested the line on 9 separate occassions since November 6th. On one occassion, the pair dip below on stop selling but rebounded strongly (CLICK HERE FOR THE EXPANDED CHART). The activity is choppy but the trend remains to the upside. A break bellow the line will be needed to attract profit taking.

Forex Trading: USDCHF tests support at the 1.1856 level

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:24:19 -0500

The USDCHF is back testing the key 100 hour MA support at the 118.56 level. The level has been a level of good support for the market (the one move was stops being hit but was quickly reversed). The level should attract some profit taking buying. A move below should solicit sellers, however.

Forex Trading: USDCHF remains bullish as it tracks higher

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 10:23:03 -0500

The USDCHF has been tracking the 100 hour moving average, maintaining closing levels above the key moving average (see blue line above). The move below at "3" triggered stops on the move but quickly moved higher (stop hunting).

A break below the key moving average would be needed to solicit profit taking from the USDCHF bulls. That level currently comes in at 1.1851. The support below that level comes in at 1.1774, the 200 hour moving average (green line). Until a break,however, the burden of proof is on the USDCHF bears to push the pair lower.

Forex Trading: USDCHF moves higher. Above 200 week moving average

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 12:09:12 -0500

The USDCHF has moved above the 200 week moving average (at 1.1965). This is the first time above the level since early in 2006.