EUR/USD

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Closes Right Above 100 Day Moving Average (Click for Chart)

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:07:45 -0500

The start of 2009 has continued to bring the extraordinary volatility we experienced in 2008, particularly in the latter part of the year. After a EUR/USD rally to close 2008, a seemingly profit taking sell-off brought the pair to the lows seen in yesterday's session. However, an interesting technical event occurred at the close of the trading day with the pair moving right above the 100 day moving average with a last minute rally. The pair has been unable to hold above that indicator to start the trading day and there seems to be no strong long-term support for the pair above the 10/28/08 lows. Looking at a daily retracement analysis for the pair from the 10/28/08 lows to the 12/18/08 highs we see some retracement levels that could act as support (50% / 61.8%) if the pair were to move toward a full retracement around the 1.23 handle.

Forex Trading News: EUR/USD Tests 100 Hr Moving Average

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 21:25:37 -0500

Revisiting yesterday's EUR/USD retracement analysis from the 11/21 lows to the 12/18 highs, we see the pair did in fact test the 100 hr moving average during the European session but proceeded to fall off. The pair has been trading up and down the 1.39 handle for most of the time and obviously reacting to indicators on light volume during the holiday season. We will continue to watch the 100 hr mavg for resistance and target the rising 200 hr mavg as support.

Forex Trading News: EUR/USD Looking Technical in a Thin Market (Click for Chart)

Alex Chernomordin — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 22:13:26 -0500

As the holidays and New Year approach, the markets as always thin out with a lot of real money on the sidelines. Looking at our hourly retracement analysis (11/21 lows - 12/18 highs) on the EUR/USD pair, although the moves last week look extraordinary, they are following some technicals, which we will continue to adhere to through the end of the year. After dropping from last weeks highs on Friday, highlighted on the chart below you see the pair trade to the 38.2% retracement level and immediately bounce up. Although the pair never had a chance to test the 100 hour moving average, we will use that as resistance and look for the 200 hour moving average to act as support over the next few sessions.

Forex Trading News: EUR/USD end of a rally? (Click for Chart)

Alex Chernomordin — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 17:52:57 -0500

After a wild week for the EUR/USD where we saw the pair jump over 14 Big Figures, we witnessed a dramatic pullback of over 5 big figures in one session. Looking at an hourly retracement analysis on the pair from the 11/21 lows to today's highs we see the pair hit the 23.6% retracement and bounce back toward the 100 hour moving average, which has been providing resistance through most of the NY session. After all the dramatic buying there could be a significant pullback here before the 2009, perhaps toward the 38.2% retracement (~1.3843). This could be a stretch as all the big money that has been dumped into the Euro the last few weeks, could look to defend their position. We will be watching these levels closely in the New Year.

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Approaching Key Level

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 23:09:34 -0500

Taking a step back on the EUR/USD from a daily perspective we see critical levels coming into play. On a retracement analysis from the July 15th all time highs to the late October lows the 38.2% retracement level (1.3744) is right above us followed by the 100 day moving average right above that, currently at 1.3775. The pair could test these levels in the very short-term, possibly in the next few sessions when they should converge. We will be keeping a close eye for you.

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Rallies But Fails at 200 Week Moving Average

Alex Chernomordin — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:04:44 -0500

With dollar selling across the board over the last few weeks, we see the EUR/USD pair rally further today on USD weakness but unable to go through the 200 week moving average. We will be watching this level into tomorrow's data rich NY session. A break could begin to lead the pair toward levels not seen since October.

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Fails to Retrace November High

Alex Chernomordin — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:47:09 -0500

Looking at the retracement analysis on the EUR/USD from the 11/05 high to the 11/13 low, we see that the pair was unable to fully retrace the early November highs. Although the move north might not be complete for the pair ahead of year end, we will be watching the full retracement level (~1.3114) as short-term resistance. We will also be watching the converging moving averages to provide support as they move higher with the pair.

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Supported by 200HR Moving Average

Alex Chernomordin — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 22:02:09 -0500

In what is shaping up to be a very quiet Asian session on a Japanese Holiday, we see the EUR/USD pair trading in a tight range supported by the 200hr moving average. With equity futures receiving a bid on the open the EUR/USD pair traded north and then lower as the futures gave back the early gains. We will watch for 200hr mavg to provide some short-term support and the trendline depicted below to provide some resistance.

Forex Trading News: Revisiting GBP/CHF & EUR/USD

Alex Chernomordin — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:19:31 -0500

Revisiting yesterday's EUR/USD wedge and the GBP/CHF retracement analysis we see how our support/resistance levels have held, although it is has been a relatively quiet market from what we have experienced the last few months. On the EUR/USD the support trendline has held, but it's interesting to note the pair has been unable gain a bid even with some mild equity strength, suggesting perhaps that the strong EUR/USD equity correlation could be weakening. The GBP/CHF has also failed to penetrate the 38.2% retracement and has traded lower as a quiet market has not affected the demand for the risk averse Swissy.

Forex Trading: EUR/USD Forming a New Wedge

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:37:44 -0500

Looking at the EUR/USD pair on an hourly chart, with the wild price action over the last few trading sessions, we see a new wedge develop with a much steeper support slope than the one on the resistance side. The creation of the wedge was assisted by the equity rally last Thursday (11/13) creating the second hit on the topside, followed by the gap opening lower yesterday which helped create the support slope (both moves are noted below.) The third downside move today was also supported and we will now be looking for a short-term move to the upside from the support line, possibly to resistance?