NFP

Forex Trading: Week comes to a quiet close after a horrible Unemployment Report but another historic week.

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:45:25 -0500

The US Unemployment report was expected to be weak and it did not disappoint. The Unemployment moved sharply higher and has risen from 5% to 6.5% in six short months. Unemployment begets unemployment and it seems that we have a ways to go as the trickle down from job losses have not fully permeated small and big businesses alike With the auto sector looking fragile and the financial sector going through consolidation, the effects of just those big businesses on other businesses, is difficult to predict.

On top of it all, exports are also slowng as the strong dollar makes exports less competitive and growth overseas is slowing anyway.

Sure, there is a new enthusiastic President Elect who seems to be willing to step away from tax hikes at this fragile time, but as he says "there is only one President at a time" and as a result, the US will need to muddle through until January. Of course the holiday season gets in the way of the end and the new beginning but we are all hoping for the best, but deep down expect the worst. It just is not a good time.

Forex News: NFP worse than expected. Revision much lowerUnemployment rate 6.5%

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:31:36 -0500

NFP -240K
NFP Revision: -284K much worse
Unemployment Rate 6.5%
Manufacturing -90K
Earnings: 0.2

Revision and current NFP much worse. Unemployment rate rises sharply to 6.5%

Job losses for the year 1,179,000.

Unemployment rate moves from 6.1% to 6.5%

If it weren't for Government (+23K) and Health (+21K) would have been worse. Last month the only sectors with job growth was Mining (+8K) and the ubiquitious "Other Services" (3K). Governement and Health showed declines.

Financial Services lost 24K, the highest in this cycle. Prof and Bus lost 45K (no temp workers needed). Trade Trans and Utilities led by Retail Trade -38K, Manufacturing led by -40k in Transportation.

The dollar should get weaker off the number. The caveat is the stock market should get hit, which traditionally has led to EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY selling.

Forex News: NFP will dominate. Expecting -200,000 but market is looking for worse

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:25:36 -0500

Watch for a rise in the unemployment rate above the expected 6.2% The market will be volatile off the number.

The key level in the EURUSD on the upside is 1.2812 (100 and 200 hour moving average). The low of 1.2653 and 1.2526 (low for the week will be key levels on the downside to watch.

GBPUSD has resistance at 1.5852 (100 hour MA) and 1.6012 (200 hour MA). On the downside the low today at 1.5533 will be key.

Forex Trading -NFP better at -51 rather than expected -75

Forex Bob — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 09:05:46 -0400

Unemplyment rate riases to 5.7%
With the jobs picture still looking weak can one expect to see Fed raise?
For sure wage pressure outlook on inflation has to be held in check

Forex News: Unemployment Rate 5.5% NFP -62,000

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:31:17 -0400

Unemployment Rate:5.5%
NFP:-62000
NFP Revision: to -62000 from -49000

The Initial Claims were much higher at 404,000.

Continuing Claims 3,116,000

Forex News: NFP comes out at -49,000. 5.5% unemployment rate

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:30:33 -0400

Rate is much higher.

The dollar got hit on the unemployment rate which was much higher than expected. This represents a bad number for the dollar as the jump has the potential to scare employers. Typically, when employment rate starts to rise, businesses who are holding off layoffs start to look toward laying off. This leads to a follow the leader mentality often where employers do not want be the last to cut employment. As a result, the dollar should trade weak.

Forex Trading: One of the quietest NFP days

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 02 May 2008 12:38:13 -0400

The NFP number today had a little of everything for everyone. It was negative indicating ho-hum job picture but it was not bad with the employment rate remaining subdued, wages contained and the good sectors (Health, government, professional and business services and leisure still) adding jobs, while the bad sectors (construction, manufacturing, Retail Trade) subtracting jobs.

Forex News: NFP -20,000. Unemployment rate 5.0%

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 02 May 2008 08:33:56 -0400

Better numbers should support the USD today.

Construction was the big decline at -68,000 jobs. Financial jobs rose which is surprising.

Forex News: NFP -80,000 Unemployment Rate 5.1%

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 08:31:26 -0400

Revisions are worse with the last month going to -76,000 from -63,000

Pieces:

Construction -51,000
Manufacturing -48,000
Financial - -5,000
Governement +18,000
Health and Educ +42,000
Leisure and Hosp +18,000

Analysis:

Forex News: US Employment weaker than expected at -63,000 Jobs

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 08:32:51 -0500