Aud/usd

Forex Trading: AUD/USD Ahead of the RBA Rate Decision

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:22:45 -0500

As we await the RBA's rate decision (expected to be at 50 basis point cut > 5.5%) we look at our old retracement analysis (10/20 high to 10/27 low) for the pair and watch the pair straddle the 61.8% retracement for the last few sessions. The pair is currently sitting on the 100 hour moving average at the bottom of its daily range above the 61.8% level, if the rate comes in as expected, followed by more hawkish comments from the RBA, we could see the pair begin toward retesting the full retracement (~.7062). Some hawkish comments could be in store as Australia faces some inflationary pressures.

Forex Trading: AUD/USD Breaks the Channel Lower Following Release of RBA Minutes

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:23:34 -0400

Following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes (see prior post for highlights) on monetary policy, the AUD/USD pair has broken the channel we have been following develop over the last few trading sessions. However, with equity markets world wide beginning to react positively to low prices and the infusion of capital, we can see the pair re-enter the northbound channel shortly, with the ASX up almost 3% early in Asian trading. We will also look for the 100 hour moving average, detailed below, to provide some short-term support.

Forex Trading: Aussie Continues to Move Higher with ASX Opening Up 5% on Further Australian Stimulus

Alex Chernomordin — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:31:29 -0400

The Australian government is planning a 5 Billion AUD stimulus package, with some reports suggesting it could be as high as 10 Billion. The plan is expected to be released before Christmas and the proposal may include a one-off tax rebate, spending on infrastructure and higher payments to pensioners and welfare recipients. Australian markets received a strong bid, trading up over 5.5% after open. The AUD/USD followed suit, reviewing yesterday's retracement analysis we see the pair about to touch the full retracement, it will be interesting to see if it can penetrate north of this level, which has acted as the high a number of times during this erratic month of trading.

Forex Trading: AUD/USD Explodes North Almost 4 Big Figures (Click for Chart)

Alex Chernomordin — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 21:09:17 -0400

The AUD/USD rocketed on the open as positive news of government sponsored bailouts came out of Australia this weekend, in addition to the Euro-Zone and the UK. Australia and New Zealand announced a blanket guarantee of bank deposits to fight the financial crisis. The government will guarantee Australia's deposit base, between 600 - 700 billion AUD for 3 years and guarantee wholesale bank funding. The ASX Index (Australian Stock Market) gained almost 5% on the news and the AUD/USD moved up almost 4 big figures minutes after the open. Examining the short-term retracement analysis on the pair on a 15 minute scale, the 50% and 38.2% retracement levels could provide some short-term support in what should be a thin market tonight (Japanese holiday) and tomorrow (US Bank holiday).

Forex Trading: AUD/USD Breaksdown & Breaks 61.8% Fibo! (Click for Charts)

Alex Chernomordin — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:51:33 -0400

Reviewing our AUD/USD retracement analysis from the April 2001 lows and July 2008 highs, we see the AUD/USD pair break the crucial 61.8% Fibo retracement level we noted earlier and then trade over 150pips lower. The 100 basis point rate cut by the RBA had little effect on Aussie and Asian stocks as everything plummeted (the ASX down by 4.99% / Nikkei down by 9.38%), compounded by the Westpac Consumer Confidence being down 11%, Investment Lending down 5% and Home Loans down 2.2%.

Forex Trading: AUD/USD Hitting Critical Long-Term Targets (Click for Charts)

Alex Chernomordin — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:37:47 -0400

Reviewing a former AUD/USD retracement analysis from the April 2001 lows and July 2008 highs, we notice the pair ripped through the 50% retracement target on US Stock weakness and falling commodity prices, but the pair stopped at the .70 handle which was a target between the 50% & 61.8% retracement levels (also a low made in March of 2006). The pair has rebounded since then, even after a 100 basis point rate cut by the RBA. The pair is now trading in between the 50% level and .70 handle, a break of either could lead to a new direction for the pair, with the 61.8% target (.6725) to the downside. Please click the chart below for the full analysis.

Forex Trading - AUD/USD Daily Perspective

Alex Chernomordin — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 05:17:27 -0400

Following up on our weekly retracement analysis, a shorter term perspective on the daily retracement analysis displays a more immediate target level. Utilizing the August 2007 lows and July 2008 highs, we notice the pair trading between 61.8% and full retracement during September. The pair looks poised to test the full retracment below the .77 handle, with the unexpected 50 basis point rate cut in New Zealand weighing on the Aussie and suggesting similar moves could be on the horizon from the RBA.

Forex Trading - AUD/USD Approaching Critical Level off Long-Term Perspective (CLICK FOR CHART)

Alex Chernomordin — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 04:54:48 -0400

The Aussie has been getting hit across the board since its highs in the middle of July. The drop in all commodity prices (a pilar of the Australian economy) have weakened the AUD while appreciating the USD, this double edged sword has brought the AUD/USD pair down 1900 pips in a relatively short period of time. The pair having broken the 200 week moving average at the end of August, which was last penetrated in January of 2003, has now apparently set the stage for lower levels. Reviewing the retracement analysis from the April 2001 lows and the July 2008 highs, we notice directly below the 200 week moving average the 38.2% retracement at .7910-.7920, where we are currently trading.

Forex Trading - AUD/USD Overview for the Year

Alex Chernomordin — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:59:17 -0400

Reviewing the last year on the AUD/USD we notice the pair is poised to make new lows for 2008. Using a retracement analysis from August 2007, the pair has broken the 61.8% retracement early this trading week. The chart below shows the truly drastic nature of the Aussie sell off, and although it is currently trading above the 61.8% retracement, another break below could lead to much lower prices as the markets continue to price in further easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Forex Trading - AUD/USD Continuing to Breakdown

Alex Chernomordin — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 05:01:06 -0400

Examining the Australian dollar and USD cross from the lows made approximately 1 year ago in August of 2007, we notice many critical levels, including the more immediate 61.8% retracement, as well as the full retracement possibly further down the road. The 61.8% retracement has provided some support for the pair as it moved toward the highs (highlighted below) and might provide support and consolidation on the way down. The pair has already traded off over 1200 pips in less than a month.