economic analysis

SPECIAL MARKET REPORT: Is it time for the huge US rescue package? Yes it is.

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 10:24:50 -0400

Is it time for a huge and meaningful US rescue package? Have the risks gotten too great for the current band aid policy to continue? The time seems right. Something has to be done to prevent further deterioration in the US financial sector.

Forex Video News: Market Outlook for March 2nd-7th 2008

Greg Michalowski — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 23:20:24 -0500

Forex Video News: Market Outlook for March 2nd-7th 2008

Forex Video News: Economic Releases for Friday Feb 29th 2008

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 00:09:35 -0500

Economic Releases for Friday Feb 29th 2008. This will be a big day for trading opportunities.

Forex Video News: Economic Releases for Tuesday Feb 12th 2008

Greg Michalowski — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:42:02 -0500

Video of the economic releases for Tuesday February 12th.

Forex Economic Analysis: More on Existing Home Sales

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 11:26:16 -0500

The existing home sales figure for the month declined once again (see 1st chart). However, the supply of existing homes for sale expressed in terms of months declined to 9.6 months, down from a high two months ago of 10.7 months. The decline is supply is needed to stabalize the housing market and the financial markets. This movement is a step in the right direction but does not mean the housing market is out of the woods. A more normal level would be around 7 months.

Forex Economic Analysis: Making sense of the Initial Claims Data. Don't necessarily believe what you see.

Greg Michalowski — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 10:04:11 -0500

The low Initial Claims data is confounding given the reports and expectations for the economy. However, the recent data strength may be more about faulty seasonals than overlall strength in employment.

Economic figures like the Initial Claims have seasonal factors in an attempt to smooth out the swings due to things such as holidays. The Christmas/New Year period for instance shows large movements in claims historically. The chart below shows the spikes in unadjusted Initial Claims over the last 3 years.

Market is quieting down a bit as London goes home

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 12:48:43 -0500

The market is quieting down as Europe and London has gone home for the weekend.

The EURUSD is between a relatively narrow range at 1.4636 and 1.4695. The EURUSD has been supported by buyers in EURGBP today as it soared back above 0.7000 (high of 0.7016) from a closing level of 0.6963. The pair is running into resistance at this level (0.7026 is the high for the year).

The market quiets down after a busy week

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 15:55:51 -0400

It was a busy week as plenty of news and events kept the markets hopping, culminating in the employment report today.

Honestly, if I was told that GDP would be over 3.0%, and NFP would be up 166,000, I would have bet a million dollars the dollar would have been at least a touch higher from the previous week, even if the Fed did lower rates by 25 basis points.

1/4 point decline... Housing slow growth. Inflation a concern

Greg Michalowski — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 14:36:47 -0400

Clearly, the Fed sees what the market sees. A lower dollar has the potential to increase inflation. Oil is up. Commodities are up. Of course there is concern for inflation. However, domestic growth is slow and risks domestically can be a problem if housing prices get hurt more. That should help inflation.

Next Week is Huge

Greg Michalowski — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 14:24:33 -0400

Next week is needless to say a big week. We will have key economic data released in the US, highlighted by the 1st cut of the Q3 GDP, the Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, and the Employment Cost Index for the 3rd quarter on Wednesday, October 31st. On Thursday there is Personal Income, Personal Consumption, and the Core PCE Deflator, along with the ISM Index for October. Friday brings the all important Non Farm Payroll.