USDJPY in a quiet range as the market consolidates the sharp two day gains.

The USDJPY has been in a quiet range in the NY session. The low in the NY session has gone down to 90.21. The high has reached 90.48.  The price is trading in between the two extremes at the 90.35.  This is also where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  The close on Friday was 90.33.  The price is at it’s equilibrium level.

The consolidation is not all surprising. On Friday the price moved from a low of 88.97 to the high today at 90.67.    The low on Thursday was down at 88.12.  The 257 pip surge higher from low to high was completed in 2 days of trading.  That move higher retraced around 61.8% of the last trend down from the high of 92.14 on Feb 19th to the low on March 4th which took two weeks to complete.  That level comes in at 90.60. The high today reached 90.67 but reversed after losing upside momentum.

Now, on the downside, support remains at the 90.13/15 level. The 90.13 is the midpoint of the high to low range of the move down from the Feb 19th high (see hourly chart above).  It also is near the 100 day Moving average level at 90.15 currently  (see blue line in the chart below).

As a result, look for support at the 90.13/15 level to continue to be supported.  However, with the sharp move higher, the market may continue to consolidate the gains and allow some time to pass in order to build up the momemtum for another leg higher. A consoldation period, would also allow for the 100 hour MA in the chart above to catch up with the market.  

So don’t expect much for the USDJPY in the near term. but as long as the price can remain above the 90.13/15 level, the bias remains supported for an extension higher at some point.

USD/JPY in a Technical Week

In an extremely quiet Asian session ahead of tomorrows much anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll release, we see that the USD/JPY pair has been trading between the 50% and 61.8% retracement the entire week, using the those levels as support and resistance. It will be interesting to see if that range is broken following tomorrow mornings US release.

USDJPY moves sharply higher to test the 100 hour MA

The USDJPY has moved sharply higher after breaking above trendline resistance at the 88.48 level.  The price is testing the low from Feb 26th which was the bottom of the consolidation phase which gripped the market from Feb 25th to yesterday’s break lower.  A move above will run into 100 hour MA resistance at the 88.89 level currently. The price has remained below the 100 hour MA since February 23rd when it broke at  91.20.

The BOJ announced an increase in reserves for currency intervention today which warns the market that a sharp fall in the USDJPY may lead to some interbank intervention.

Watch the 100 hour MA for clues. A move above will next target 89.45 area where the market had a ceiling and where the 200 hour MA is moving towards.

USDJPY looking toward the target at 88.23

As per earlier post, the USDJPY is looking to test the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the November low to the January high. The level comes in at the 88.23 price.  A break of that level will look toward 87.50.

Look for profit taking buyers against the 88.23 level with stops on a break. Topside should find sellers against the 88.46 level now (low from earlier today).

USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA on the topside.

The USDJPY reached a new low overnight for the latest move lower at the 88.46 level. The price has retraced to a high at the 88.98 but is now back down at the prior move low for this consolidation period at the 88.72 level.  The market is at a crossroad.  Does it move back above the decline 100 hour MA, or continue the trend down.

The bias remains to the downside for the pair below the 100 hour MA.  Look for sellers on rallies toward the level.  A move back below the  88.72 level could solicit some selling pressure this morning. 

On the downside, the next target comes in at 88.23. This is the 61.8% correction level of the move up from the November 2009 low to the January 2010 high.  Below that level a move toward 87.50 cannot be ruled out. 

USDJPY non-trending as the pause continues

The USDJPY is non-trending between the 100 hour MA at 89.33 currently (blue line in the chart above), and a floor at the 88.73 area.  Additional upside resistance comes in at the 89.45.

The USDJPY has been pressured on the last move down, since peaking at 92.14 on Feb 19th. The pair has been consolidating that move lower over the last 3 trading days with the price trading between resistance at the 89.45 level and support at the 88.73/82 area.  This has allowed the 100 hour MA to come back into play (at 89.33).  The market is at a crossroad.

With the bias to the downside, look for sellers against the 100 hour MA and the 89.45 ceiling level.  A break above these level would turn the bias back to the upside (as long as the price remains above the MA line or blue line in the chart above). 

On the downside, a break of support at 88.73 would next target the 61.8% of the move up from November which comes in at the 88.23 level. 

USDJPY falls on the weaker housing data

The USDJPY has fallen on the weaker housing data.  The data is just not good and with the winding down of government purchases of mortgage securities, one has to wonder how bank lending will proceed going forward.  The low for the day was 89.01. The low from yesterday afternoon after the move higher off the low came in at the 89.04 level. This area will now become upside resistance for the pair.  The low yesterday at 88.79 area needs to be broken on the downside to confirm further pressure.

USDJPY consolidates after a trend week to the downside

The high for the USDJPY was on Monday at the 91.89. The low occurred yesterday at the 88.79 level.  The price moved below the 100 hour MA at the 91.19 level on Tuesday, the trendline and 200 hour MA on Tuesday.  Consolidated on Wednesday at the 100 day MA (at 90.16) and moved lower Thursday.  Now the market is consolidating once again as the week comes to a close.

The Yens demand has come off the flight to quality bid as a result of slower global growth and the Greece situation.  This should continue in the near term. However watching the technical levels are always important.

Looking at the shorter term chart the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 89.26 level.  This suggests a non-trending type market and normally a move away is warranted.  The price has respected the level in NY trade today with a few tests. On the downside, however, there has been some profit taking buying.  The price below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the below chart gives a bearish bias. Confirmation of the move would come on a break of the 89.15 level and the low for the day at 89.00.  If the price moves above the moving average levels, the bias switches and focus turns toward the 89.39 level where we have a ceiling developing. 

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