The USDCAD is testing 100 day MA and trendline support at 1.0123 level

The USDCAD is down testing the 100 day MA and trendline support at the key 1.0123 level. I would expect to see some profit taking buying interest at the level on the 1st test.  A move below should solicit stops, however, with the next target being the low for the month of December at the 1.0050 level.  Looking at the hourly chart below, a correction higher should find willing sellers at the 1.0154 area where trendline and the 38.2% of the days range comes in.   The USDCAD has been one of the top movers today (only surpassed by the NZD).  Higher oil prices are helping keep the currency supported (USDCAD down).

Canada Retail Sales Improve, USD/CAD Trades Below Parity

Canada Retail Sales:  Survey: 0.3%  Actual: 0.5%   Prior:  -0.6%   Revised: -0.5%

Canada Retail Sales Less Autos:  Survey: 0.3%  Actual: 0.4%   Prior:  0.0%   Revised: 0.1%

USD/CAD trading below parity.

Usd/Cad fails break above 100 hour M/A

Usd/Cad has failed to break above its 100 hour M/A (1.0258) in recent trade. Added resistance comes in at 1.0253 which signifies the 50% fibo retracement  of  move down from 1.0367 to 1.0169. If the pair can break above 1.0280 should be its next stop, where light resistance lies (61.8% fibo). Better resistance comes in at 1.0320.

If the pair comes off light support at 1.0226 (38.2% fibo) would be the first obstacle to 1.0190, where stronger support lies.

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USDCAD trades at days low. Support on daily and hourly chart

The USDCAD has moved back down after a rally earilier in the day.  The price for the pair is now below Friday’s close at 0.9799 and is testing support on the daily and hourly charts.  An old trendline support line on the daily chart that has reasserted itself after a move below last week, comes in at the 0.9783 level. The 50% retracement of last weeks range and 100 hour MA come in at the 0.97834 and 0.9781 levels respectively.   This is a key level for the pair.

Should the level hold support, the upside will need to get through the 0.9805-0.98072 area which is a ceiling today and the 38.2% of the move down (see chart below). A break of the support has the 200 hour MA at the 0.9774 level and then the 0.9756 level before opening the door for a potential  larger move to the downside.

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USD/CAD Breaks Down to Continue Bearish Trend

USD/CAD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (6/14/2011) has broken swiftly down to break below a rising parallel channel that represented a bullish correction within a long-term bearish trend. This breakdown has brought price down to hit key support around the 0.9680 price region. The bearishness represented by this breakdown occurs after price action respected with a clear shooting star candle both the 0.9850 resistance level and an important downtrend resistance line extending back to the October 2010 high. This breakdown could presage a continuation of the bearish overall trend with an immediate downside target around the 0.9600 price region, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the noted bullish correction. Further to the downside resides a key support target around the 0.9450 area low extreme.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

USD/CAD Drops to Uptrend Support Line

6/09/2011 – USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Thursday (6/09/2011) has once again reached down to touch a steep uptrend support line extending back to the early May 0.9445 low. This uptrend represents a prolonged bullish correction within an overall bearish trend. The current trend line touch occurs after price action respected a confluence of resistance late last week that included both a downtrend resistance line extending back to the October 2010 high, as well as the key 0.9850 area support/resistance region. Now that price has once again reached down to the steep uptrend support line, the pair is at a critical juncture. In the event of a breakdown below the line, thereby continuing the longer-term entrenched downtrend, price action should begin targeting the 0.9600 region, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the noted bullish correction.

(Please click on the chart to enlarge. Chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in orange; 100-period simple moving average in brown; 200-period simple moving average in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

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