USDCAD approaches the 2009/2010 low

USDCAD is approaching the low from 2010 and the low from 2009.  The low price for 2010 was 1.0223. The low today reached 1.0214. The low from 2009 reached 1.0205.  A break below is likely to solicit additional selling pressure for the pair.

On the topside, a move above 1.0234 will be eyed for the potential of a short covering rally.  The market does seem caught long, however, given the sharp move lower today.

USDCAD. Look for support at 1.0307 area

The USDCAD made new lows today and has bounced higher. The price is above the low from March 2nd at the 1.0307 level and this area is now support for the pair.  The 100 (1.0305) and and 200 bar MAs (1.0311) on the 5 minute chart are at the area and they too should provide a level to buy against.  If the price goes below the level, the bias turns back down. Key level for dip/countertrend buyers.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision today at 9:00

After prior interest rate decisions, the BOC has said that they would keep rates on hold through the 2nd quarter.  We are in March so I would expect them to be true to their word this time as well despite the 5% GDP increase in the 4th quarter released yesterday.  

From a technical perspective the USDCAD has moved below the 104.05-15 support level (see prior post) and trading at the lowest level since January 20th.  Look for support at the 103.26 level where the bottom side trendline is found.   The low has reached 1.0338  and has bounced.   Watch this value through the announcement.

On the topside, the 1.0380 level and then the 1.0405-15 level become key levels once again.

Canada GDP better than expected. USDCAD falls through support.

The USDCAD comes in at +5.0% for the 4th quarter higher than the 4.2% expectations.  This has sent the USDCAD lower.   The price has broken through the 100 and 200 hour MA and tests the 61.8 % of the Feb 22nd low tot he Feb 25th low. at the 1.0486 level.  A move below would next target key support at the 1.0405-15 level.

Upside resistance comes in at the 200 hour MA at the 1.0494 level and then at the 1.0517-1.0523 level.

USDCAD tests resistance at 1.0575 level.

The USDCAD surged higher today on the back of weaker global economy thoughts and the inability to push through materially through the 1.0405/15 support level.  The price move higher hs pushed the pair through the 100 day moving average level at the 1.0528 level and move the pair to the 50% retracement of the move down from the Feb 5th high of 1.0779 to the low reached yesterday. That level comes in a thte 1.0575 level. This level also corresponds with the prior highs/low from Feb 10th and 11th.  As a result, there is some minor profit taking. 

As long as the price can remains below this level, there may be some profit taking. However, look for support down below before the 100 day MA level at the 1.0528. 

Overall, the move today is significant in gettting above the 100 day MA and pushing higher with momentum on the break. So expect a more favorable USDCAD with buyers on dips and stops back below the 100 day MA level.

USDCAD moves up at to test the 100 hour MA

Watch the 100 hour MA at the 1.0443 level.  The USDCAD has benefitted from  lower oil price and generally a higher dollar bias in NY.  The pair moved above key resistance at 1.0415 and now looks at the next key level.  A move above is needed to excite further buying with the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above). Support remains against the 1.0415 level.

USDCAD moving above the key 1.0405/15 level

Squeezes higher (see prior post).  The next target is the 1.0429 level on the 5 minute chart and then the 1.0448. ON the downside, the 1.0405 level should now hold support. Oil prices are coming down, helping the pair move higher.

USDCAD makes new lows today but trying to bounce

The price has moved back above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0385/88 area (blue and green line  in the chart above).  This gives a slightly bullish bias for the pair with the bias turning back to the downside below 1.0385.  If the price is able to stay above this support level, there is key resistance at the 1.0405-15 level for the pair going back to the daily chart where a number of lows and highs occurred in the past.  The price reached a high of  1.0404 earlier today and came off.  

On the downside, a move back below the 1.0385 level should extend the downside to test the low at the 1.0368 level.

Next Page »