US Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM

US Retail Sales mixed. Empire Manufacturing worse than expectation

The Retails Sales rose by 1.4% for the month. Ex Autos was worse at +0.2% vs +0.4% expectations.  The prior month was revised lower to -2.3% from -1.5%. The less autos was also reduced slightly to +0.4% from +0.5%.  Car sales led the way with an increase of 7.4%.  Clothing Sales rose by 0.4%, Health stores rose by 0.5%, Restaurants increased by 1.2% for the first gains since may 2009,  and department store sales rose by 0.3% for the month. On the downside, furnitture and home sales fell by -0.8% and electronic sales fell by -0.6%. Building Materials also fell by a large -2.4% for the month.

The Empire Manufacturing index fell to 23.51 from 34.57 last month. The number last month was the highest since May 2004.

Canada Manufacturing Sales rose by 1.4%.

US Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM

The US Retail Sales are to be released at 8:30 AM.  The last two months have seen a rebound/stabilization of sales after a record 6 months of oversized declines.   The Ex Auto release, which is an indication of core sales to consumers, has risen for the last two months as well.  This too was on the back of a record number of declining months.

For this month, we already know that the Auto Sales has likely improved.  The sales pace for Total Vehicle Sales increased to 9.9 million from 9.1 million in February.  The Chain Store sales, however, showed a 2.1% decline for March.   The forecast for the month is for a gain of 0.3% for the headline number as auto sales lead the increase.  The ex auto number is expected to show no change from last month. 

Going forward, the retail sales will be negatively effected by the larger unemployment.  On the plus side a stronger home sale market would help as new home buyers tend to increase spending on other items.   However, the chances of higher unemployment are more likely than increases in home purchases.  So sales should remain subdued.

In a surprise Retail Sales rose by 1.0% and up 0.9% ex Autos.

The Retail Sales are a surprise. The Ex gas, Building Materials and auto dealers rose by 1.2%.  This is the number used in GDP (the other values are gotten from different sources).  Part of the gain is attributed to higher gas prices (filling stations up 2.6%).  Clothing and food also increased.  Auto dealers and parts stores rose by 1.6%.  This is the first gain in 6 months. 

Initial Claims come in at 623 which is slightly lower than the 631K last week but higher than expectations.

The Continuing Claims rose to 4810K from a revised 4799K.  The employment picture remains pressured.

US Retail Sales due at 8:30 AM

The Advanced Retail Sales will be reported at 8:30 AM.  The Expectation is for a decline of -0.8%.  This would be the 7th straight decline in a row.  The Ex auto  is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 3.1% decline last month.  For this measure it would be the 6th decline in a row.  

Although expected to be down, the rate of decline is expected to slow this month.