Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected

Unemployment came in at 8.6% vs 8.7%

Net Change in Employment -7.4K vs -41.8K
Full time however, was down 47.5K
Part time was up 40.1K

So the mix was not as great as gains were in the Part time sector which could suggest workers are being forced to take lower paying part time jobs. 

Nevertheless, the market has sold off the USDCAD (CAD$ higher) off the number.

The price action in the USDCAD has been moving sideways of late as it respects the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at the 1.1655 level (from the move down from the March high of 1.3062 to the low at 1.0785).  The high price today occurred before the release at the 1.1662 level.  The expectation for the day would be to find sellers against the level, with stops if the price moves back above this key level.

On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour moving averages need to be breached on the downside to confirm a bearish bias.  The 100 hour MA comes in 1.1624.  The 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.1597 currently.

NFP comes in as expected but the Unemployment rate worse than expectations. So are revisions.

Unemployment rate 8.1%, expected 7.9%. Highest since Dec 1983.  This is consistent with the FXDD Unemployment review (click here for the report)

Manufacturing -168K  Prior month revised to 257K decline.  The worst since Feb 1975
Revisions to prior months have pushed the number of total jobs lost to 4.384 million. 
The average job loss in this employment recession has been 313K
The average over the last 4 months is a whooping 646K
Losses are still accelerating.

NFP 651K.  Prior month revised to 655K
Goods Producing: -276K
Servicing Producing -375K.  The spread into Service sector continues.

The Avg Workweek remains at record lows.

Job addition Sectors:
Health rose by 26K, less than trend
Govt rose by 9K

Job Loss Sectors
Manufacturing -168K
Trade, Trans and Utilities   -124K (Retail lost 39,500 jobs)
Professional and Bus Services -180K (Temporary workers lost 77K).  Largest decline going back to 1960
Construction -104K
Financial -44K
Information -15K
Leisure and Hosp –33K
Mining -4K

US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Review

The all important, US Unemployment statistics will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a decline of 650K jobs and for the unemployment rate to rise to 7.9%.   The data has the potential to be worse than expectations.  To find out why and to have a better understanding of this important economic release, read the following analysis. 

For a complete analysis of the report, click on the following link.

  US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Special Report (626.6 KiB, 1,459 hits)

 Thank you for your continued business and good luck with your trading.

Greg Michalowski
Chief Currency Analyst

CHF Unemployment Rate Released

The CHF Unemployment Rate rose to 2.9% as forecast up from the previous 2.8%.

The CHF was softening up into this number and did not react after this data.

Forex Trading News Japanese Economic Releases (Unemployment, CPI & Industrial Production)

The Yen is relatively unchanged after a slew of economic releases. The data was released as follows:

Jobless Rate - Survey:4.1%   Actual:4.4%   Prior:3.9%

National CPI (YoY) - Survey:0.4%   Actual:0.4%   Prior:1.0%

National CPI ex Food & Energy (YoY) - Survey:0.0%   Actual:0.0%   Prior:0.0%

Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey: -8.9%  Actual:-9.6%   Prior:-8.5%

Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:-20%   Actual:-20.6% Prior:-16.6%

Forex Trading News Australian Employment Report

The Australian Employment Report for December came in as follows:

Employment Change - Survey:-20K   Actual:-1.2K   Prior: -15.6K

Unemployment Rate - Survey: 4.5%  Actual:4.5%   Prior: 4.4%

Participation Rate - Survey: 65%  Actual: 65%  Prior: 65.1%

Forex News NFP as expected Unemployment rate higher than expected

NFP: 524K  versus 520K Expected
Unemployment Rate: 7.2% Versus 7.0% expected

Prior month revised higher to 584K from 533K. October was also revised higher to -423k from -320K.

Total jobs lost in 2008 totaled 2,589K. During the 2001 to 2003 job recession, the total jobs lost was 2.708 Million but this was over 30 months. This job recession is only 12 months to date.  

Manufacturing lost -149K jobs which is higher than expectations.  
Construction lost -101K jobs 
Financial lost -14K
Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost -121K.   Retail Jobs only lost 66K jobs.  This probably kept the headline not a disaster.  Last month 100K jobs were lost. 
Health added 45K.  It continues to add due to demographics

Forex Trading US Unemployment Statistics to be released at 8:30 AM

The US Unemployment report is to be released at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a decline of 520K jobs.  The ADP report showed a 693K decline. Initial Claims and Continueing Claims went up over the survey period and the ISM Manufacturing Employment measure showed another low.  The holiday sales were low and the risk in the report is the seasonal adjustments for Retail jobs will be too high to overcome.  Retailers knew sales would be weak and profits were going to be squeezed so the expectation would be they did not hire as many people as the seasonal adjustments in the December report would indicate. 

For a review of the report that looks at the employment sectors, click on the following link

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PREVIEW OF THE US EMPLOYMENT REPORT

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