Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.24.2012

Good Morning:

We awaken this morning to a quiet marketplace.

Italy and Spain both had successful auctions-coming in at the top end of the range.
Spain paid  more for it’s 3 month bill .634% from .381% at the last auction.
Which is a continuing sign of credit issues in the Euro Zone.
Spanish/German 10 year government bond spread narrowed to 424 bps from 436 bps earlier this morning.

Australian inflation came out lower than expected-and market participants are expecting a rate cut by the RBA.
Most bets put the rate cut coming in May at their next meeting.

Gold and Silver are higher.
Oil up at 103.55/bbl.

Asian equity markets were higher-except for Tokyo.  Europe and US Futures are also higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.6.2012

Good Morning:

The Reserve Bank of Australia left their key interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.  The RBA stressed that there could be a call for lower rates-if the global economy continues to slow.  They are also concerned about the slowdown in Chinese growth-and will monitor this very closely.

Data out of the EU was not very pretty.  Q4 GDP was .3% lower.  Exports dropped .4%, after a 1.4% increase for Q3.  Consumer spending was down .4%.  It looks like Europe is in it’s 2nd recession in the past 3 years-as the Greek issue takes down the entire region.
The IIF (International Institute of Finance), stated that the disorderly Greek bailout could cost up to 1 trillion euros.

In US political news-today is “Super Tuesday” for the Republican Presidential nomination.  11 states and 400 delegates will be up for grabs today.  The nominee will need a total of 1144 delegates to win the Republican Presidental nomination.  Mitt Romney is looking to gain a distinct advantage, so that he can focus on winning the election in November.

World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.
Commodity markets are also lower across the board.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.7.2012

Good Morning:

In an unexpected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia left their benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.  With signs of growth in North America and Asia-the RBA opted to leave rates steady for the time being.  The RBA will monitor the growth of the global economy, and will set their interest and monetary policy accordingly.

In other news-it seems that Greece is getting closer to an agreement with their creditors.  We have heard this for the past few weeks-so when we get confirmation-I will let you know.  In the meantime-European leaders are running out of patience for Greece to get their monetary policy in place.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking to Congress today-after last friday’s positive jobs data-will his  tone be different?  No likely.

Equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.19.2011

Good Morning:

The euro rose overnight versus the USD and JPY as data showed that Germany’s manufacturing growth rose unexpectedly.  This adds to the markets speculation that the ECB will need to raise interest rates in the near future.
In other EU news-yields on Greek 2 year notes rose to 20%-as investors realize that the country will need to restructure it’s debt.
Down-under-the RBA seems to be content with rates where they are-and the Aussie will likely be driven by market activity-rather than any fundamental news from Australia.

European equity markets rose, as corporate results came in better than expected.  US Futures are also higher at this time.
Asian shares were lower-as continued bad news from Japan kept their equity markets muted. 

Oil traded lower as signs of a weaker US economy added to the markets speculation that the demand for gasoline may decline.
With gas at over $4/gal in the US-their have been reports that consumers are alreeady starting to curtail their driving habits.

Oil:$106.35                                                               Gold:$1495.20

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.6.2010

Good Morning:

The US is back in business after the long July 4Th holiday.  Yesterday we were open, but it was a very quiet day.

Positive economic news from Australia, along with the RBA leaving interest rates unchanged helped the Aussie rally in overnight trading.  The RBA does not seem as concerned about the global recovery as the rest of the marketplace does. They are more concerned with the needs from China and Asia-as this region dictates Australia’s economy more than the rest of the world.  
The USD andf JPY lost ground as the rally in equities lowered demand for the safe refuge of these currencies.

World equity markets are higher-and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.
Global stocks have gained as analysts have raised earnings estimates for many US companies at the fastest pace since 2004.  S%P companies are looking at a 34% increase in 2010-according to reports in Bloomberg.

Oil:$72.96                                   Gold:$1208.40

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex Video Quick:AUDUSD prepares for the RBA interest rate decision

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.3.2009

Good Morning:

The RBA (Australia) raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but their statement suggests that they may pause regarding any additional rates hikes.
The JPY and USD rose as worldwide equities fell.  With uncertainty in the financial sectors, investors demand for higher-yielding currencies is waning.

Global equity market fell, as UBS announced a larger than expected loss.  Speculation  isthat  global economies may take longer than expected to recover.

Oil:$77.59                    Gold:$1062.25 

Today’s data:
Factory Orders:        exp: 1.%          prior: -.8%
Vehicle Sales:            exp; 9.8M      prior: 9.2M

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

RBA Rate decision set for 12:30 AM. AUDUSD better bid after selling off earlier in the day

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.0%. This would be the third month in a row with steady rates.  This came after a series of cuts which saw rate fall a total of 4.25% from 7.25%. 

GDP grew by 0.4% in the 1st quarter, after only one quarter of negative growth.  Retail Sales rose by 1% in May which was higher than expectations.  In addition to aggressive monetary easing, the government has given out 12 billion Aussie dollars to consumers, and pledged a further  22 billion A$ more for infrastructure spending. 

Despite the good economic news, at the last meeting Governor Stevens  said the central bank had a scope to cut rates if needed.  This was a curious comment which may have been an attempt to slow the ascent of the AUDUSD which has risen by over 50% since bottoming in October 2008. The midpoint level comes in at 0.7927.  This will be a key level to watch today.  A higher AUDUSD makes exported goods less competitive abroad and could have threatened the recovery.

Australia has benefitted from having less of the banking woes that have hurt countries like the US, UK and the Eurozone.  They have also benefitted from their geographic proximity to emerging countries like China and India – two other countries who have continued to experience growth in the 1Q.

A more favorable assessment by RBA Governor Stevens today should manifest itself in a stronger AUDUSD. If his assessment on growth is less than robust, the currency pair

From a technical perspective, the AUDUSD got a late boost in NY in anticipation of a better economic assessment from the central bank.  This was despite a negative day for the commodities which normally leads to a decline in the AUDUSD.   The G8 announced today that they would pledge 15 billion to global food efforts which may have helped pressure the commodity complex.  Now that the holiday weekend is over (and half the summer), the oil complex also fell further in anticipation of even less demand. 

Nevertheless, the pair was able to erase the entire move lower in the 1st half of the day and close higher.  Going into the evening session, the the key level on the upside comes in at the 0.8015 level. This is where both the 200 hour and the 50% retracement of the recent wave down is currently located. 

On the downside, we will be watching the 0.7927 level which is the midpoint of the move lower in 2008.  Activity can be volatile and choppy before the announcement.  Adjust positions accordingly.

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