NZDUSD runs into key upside resistance

The NZDUSD has run into some key upside resistance on the daily, hourly and 5 minute charts (at the 0.7424 area). Profit taking sellers have entered in against the level and may keep the topside contained for the day. For a review click on the following video link.

NZDUSD moves lower and tests key support

The comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has sent the NZDUSD lower toward key support.  The trendline support off the June low comes in at 0.7448.  Belwo that is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.7433 and below that is the 100 Day MA at 0.7408 today.  The low off the announcement has taken the price to a low of 0.7442- so far.

The correction off the low has been limited so far. The prior low for the day has been 0.7456.  Staying below the 0.7456-62 level will likely keep the pressure on. However, the above mentioned support levels are likely to find some buyers.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence

The lone piece of data out of Asia this morning is the Westpac Consumer Confidence reading for the 3rd quarter, which came in lower than the prior month at 114.1, likely negatively affected by the earthquake (prior 119.3.) Looking at the Kiwi chart from earlier in the week, we see the pair broke below 100hr moving average (38.2%) following the revised GDP reading accompanying the rate decision. The pair is looking rather technical trading off the 76.4% level and now having its appreciation deterred by the trending 21hr moving average. Further USD weakness against growth currencies could move the pair back into 73 cent handle.

Kiwi Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3% as expected. The Kiwi had sold off on the accompanying comments, after ranging yesterday moving lower on poor confidence out of Australia and BOJ intervention and then regaining its bid early in NY.

Comments:

• The pace and extent of further rate increases are more moderate than in June.
• Domestic demand is subdued.
• Earthquake has ‘significantly disrupted’ the economy, disruption likely to last for some time.
• Pace of global expansion appears to have slowed.
• Weak bank lending a result of subdued demand.
• Bank-Bill forecasts suggest ‘softer’ rate rises.
• GDP outlook weakens from 3.5% to 2.8%.

On the chart below we see the NZD/USD pair had gained support at the 100hr moving average throughout September and made a move below that level and had initally gained some technical support at the 200hr moving average. Further USD appreciation could have the pair retest last Wednesdays low.

New Zealand interest rate decision at 5:00.

The NZDUSD is trading near trendline support and the 100 hour MA level. A hawkish report from the RB New Zealand talking about accomodative policy and the need to hike rates further should lead to a move higher. If they tone down their comments due to worries about global slowdown, then then pair willl likely head down to test the 200 hour MA at the 0.7257 level

NZDUSD double top, but good support at 0.7134

NY Opening Forex Commentary. EURUSD falls despite stronger growth

New Zealand Business PMI

The Kiwi PMI for June came in at 56.2, higher than the prior reading of 54.5. The Kiwi actually moved lower following the release. On the daily chart below we see the pair once again hit trendline resistance and moved lower for the time being. However, the market dynamic seems to have the risk and commodity outlook much improved this week, so a break could occur with a lot of time left in the week.

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