Forex News EUR French CPI m/m and Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q Out at 2:45 AM EDT

EUR

French CPI

Expected at -0.4%

Prior -0.1%

Actual -.5%

Non-Farm Payrolls

Expected at -0.1%

Prior -0.1%

Actual  —- ***data delayed**

Dec 5 2008 FXDD Forex Video – Dismal Non Farm Payroll Numbers – Last day of trading

Bobbys Corner- Open Market 12.4.2008

Good Morning:

The November jobs data will be announced this morning. Non-Farm payrolls are expected to shrink by 325K, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.8%.  This negative data will not be a positive for the markets in general.  The data will be announced at 8:30 Am NYT.

Currency markets were stable as traders await the widely anticipated employment data. 

World equities declined, and U.S. Futures are lower as concerns that the world economies continue to be soft.  Energy and metal producers led the declines-as commodity prices dropped.

Oil: $ 43.80                                 Gold: $768.00

Today we have data on:

NFP:                        Exp: -325K   Prior: -240K
Unemployment Rate: Exp: 6.8%  Prior: 6.5%
Mortgage Delinquencies  at 10AM

HAVE A GREAT DAY-GOOD LUCK & HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

Dec 4 2008 FXDD Forex Video – A look at the markets and a preview of Non Farm Payrolls

Bobbys Corner- Open Market 12.3.2008

Good Morning:

Weak data from the EuroZone pushed the Euro and GBP lower.  Tomorrow the BOE will meet regarding interest rates-another cut is expected. The U.K. economic situation seems to be increasingly worsening as credit continues to be difficult to obtain by both corporations and individuals.

Traders in North America will be focusing on employment data-as Friday’s Non farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate will be announced.

This morning’s Challenger Job cuts and ADP Employment data were both disappointing.

European Equities fell-and U.S. futures are weaker this morning as disappointing earnings from Infineon (Europe’s 2^nd largest maker of semiconductors) and RIM (the makers of BlackBerry).  Asian markets were slightly higher in overnight trading.

 Oil: $ 46.74                                                     Gold; $ 767.00 

Today we have data on:

Ism Non Manufacturing data:                Exp: 42.0                     Prior: 44.4

Fed Beige Book at 2 PM

 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex News ADP Non Farm Payroll Report due at 8:15 AM

The next report will be the ADP Non Farm Payroll Employment report which will be released at 8:15 AM.  This report is supposed to mimic the US NFP report due out on Friday (not inclusive of government program).  In reality, its accuracy has not been too accurate.  Since January, the ADP has projected a loss of 154,000 jobs.  Meanwhile, the Non Farm Payroll has shown a decline of 1,179,000 jobs. 

Regardless, the market will be interested in what is announced and make the judgement if it is worse or better than expectations.  The estimate for the release is for a decline of 205K jobs.  The NFP report, to be released on Friday, is expected to decline by 325,000 jobs. 

Forex News Next weeks highlights of events and economic releases

Next week will be dominated by 4 interest rate announcements from around the globe.  The all important US Unemployment Report will also be announced on Friday.  Eurozone and UK PMI data will be announced and US Car Sales will bring the auto makers back to center stage.

Below is a review of the key events and economic releases

Reserve Bank of Australia
Monday 10:30 PM EDT
Estimate: Cut of 75 -100 basis points to 4.25% -4.5%

The Reserve Bank of Australia get the interest rate cut bandwagon going with a cut of 75 to 100 basis points on Monday night at 10;30 PM EDT.  The rate peaked at 7.25% before heading back down starting in September. Since that time the bank has cut by 25, 100 and 75 basis points at successive meetings.  The current rate of 5.25% is considered too high given the inflationary and growth expectations into 2009. 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Wednesday, 3:00 PM EDT
Estimates: Cut of 150 basis points to 5% from 6.5%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to slash rates by 150 basis points on Wednesday at 3:00 PM.  The cut would be the 3rd in succession.  The peak was at 8.25%.  Rates started coming down in July when the central bank cut rates by a surprise 25 basis points.  Since then they have cut by 50 and 100 points at successive meetings. The current rate is 6.5% and the thought is the banks policy is too high given the slowdown in global demand and prices.  At cut to 5.0% would bring the level to December 2003 levels.  

Bank of England Monetary Polidy Meeting
Thursday, 7:00 AM EDT
Estimates: Cut of 100 basis points to 2.0% from 3.0%

The Bank of England surprised the market last week with a 150 basis point cut to 3.00%.  The rate represented the lowest level since 1954.  It was in reaction to expectation of sharply lower inflation and growth ahead.  After the cut, the Inflation Report and comments from BOEs King suggested that further cuts were warranted.  The market has priced in another 100 basis points and a further 100 basis points in 2009.  This would bring the rate to the lowest level since at least 1950.

ECB Policy Meeting
Thursday, 7:45 AM EDT
Estimates: Cut of 75 to 100 basis points to 2.5% to 2.25% 

At 7:45 PM the ECB will announce their interest rate decision.  The expectation is a cut of 75 basis points.  However, I would not be surprised with a cut of 100 basis points.  The ECB has been preoccupied with the level of inflation in their economy.  Today, the Flash CPI estimate for November was released and fell sharply to 2.1% from 3.2% last month. Moreover, the expectation going forward is a continuing decline in the level of YoY inflation as the spikes from last year are reversed.  This should bring the YoY inflation rate well below the 2% floor targeted by the ECB.   The decline should give the central bank a window to cut aggressively and finally address growth which has a number of countries in a recession.  Failure to do so, should disappoint the market.  Trichet will have his usual press conference at 8:30 AM.  Also, the ECB is expected to announce the new inflation and growth projections.  The expectation is for sharply lower estimates. 

Friday, 8:30 AM EDT
US Unemployment Report
Estimates: Unemployment Rate 6.8% vs 6.5% last month
Non Farm Payroll: -323K vs -240K
Manufacturing Payroll: -80K vs -90K

The Friday US Unemployment Report is expected to be the worst since October 2001 when 325,000 jobs were lost.  The estimate of -323,000 is not far off that level and would be the 2nd largest decline since 1990.  If the estimate is correct, the US would have lost nearly 1 MM non farm payroll jobs in the last 4 months.  The decline would be the 11th in a row.  The pace of job losses has reached a new high level and is continuing to accelerate.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from 6.5%.  Like the NFP, this too is accelerating as the trickle down of job losses, is leading to reduced spending and even more unemployment.  The economy has not gotten to a point yet where it can be said with certainty, job losses have stopped. 

For a preview of other key releases for the week, click on the following link

CLICK HERE FOR "FXDD TODAY". 

Thank you for your continued business and have a great weekend.

Greg Michalowski
VP and Chief Currency Analyst

Forex Trading News French Prelim Non-Farm Payroll Released

The French Prelim Non-Farm Payroll came out better than expected at -0.1% from the previous -0.2%.  This was forecast once again at -0.2%.

The EUR is a touch softer despite this positive French data.   

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