Forex News Challenger Job Cuts to be announced at 7:30 AM. ADP Employment Change due at 8:15 AM.

The Challenger Job cuts for December will be released at 7:30 AM.  Last month they showed that the announced job cuts were 148.4% higher than last year.  There is no estimate for this month although one can imagine that the number will once again be on the high side.

Later at 8:15 AM the ADP Employment Change for the month of December will be released.  ADP has revised their methodology to more accurately reflect the BLS Non Farm Payroll figures (wasn’t that they were doing in the first place).  As a result, the prior months were all revised and the hope is that this month will more correctly estimate what willl be released on Friday from the data that the ADP has on employment.  The expectation for this release is for a 493K decline in jobs.  The NFP is estimated to come in at -500K. 

Forex News Today: US ISM Manufacturing for the month of Dec to be released at 10:00 AM

The US ISM Manufacturing index for the month of December will be released at 10:00 AM. It is the only US economic release today.  The expectation is for a decline to 35.4 from 36.2 last month.  This would be the lowest reading since 1980.  The credit crisis, housing market, higher unemployment, should offset the positives from lower energy prices and lower mortgage rates.  The regional indices out of NY, Richmond, Philadelphia and Chicago have already come out weak. 

The New Year should continue to bring weak economic data in the US.  The key data next week will be the Non Farm Payroll on Friday where the expectation is for a decline of 485K jobs. US vehicle sales will be released on Monday and are expected to once again be at new low levels for the recent move.

Forex News Feds Fisher on the wires

• US economy to contract 4%-5% in 4Q 2008
• UNEMPLOYMENT MAY EXCEED 8 PERCENT
•  U.S. ECONOMY MAY SHRINK THROUGH JUNE 2009
• Fed Will Pursue All Viable Means To Support Financial Markets
•  Fed will not shy from using every praticable means
•  ECONOMY MAY RECOVER MID-2009 IF ALL GOES WELL
•  WE HAVE TO PREVENT DEFLATION FROM TAKING GRIP

Forex News Philadelphia Fed Index comes out stronger than expectations

The index comes out at -32.9.  The expectation was for -40.5.

New orders -25.2 vs -31.4
Employment -28.7 vs -25.2
Prices Paid: -33.2 vs -30.7
Prices Received: -37.8 vs -15.5

Overall, the index is better but it still remains at very low levels.   The EURUSD moved higher off the number on expectation of stronger stocks/stronger EURUSD idea.

Forex TradingEURUSD moves below the days midpoint

The EURUSD has moved below the days midpoint after rallying strongly overnight – testing the 200 day moving average. This is typically a bearish intraday signal especially given the strong trend move higher.  The level comes in at the 1.4533 area.  Watch this level. 

The above chart shows the 200 day MA.   On the longer term chart the 100 day MA is 1.3758. 

Forex Trading USDCHF breaks through 100 day MA as well.

The USDCHF has also broken through the 100 day moving average at the 1.1437 level and also the 38.2% retracement level at the 1.1424 level.  The low has been 1.1398.  The market will be watching these levels closely today.

Forex Trading EURUSD breaks above the 100 day moving average. Stops triggered

The EURUSD has moved above the 100 day moving average and triggered stop buying.  A close above this level should attract additional buyers from medium term traders.  The close will be important today.

On the downside, the pair also pierced the 38.2% retracement level at the 1.3745 level.  This should be a stop level on the downside for intraday traders.   The close will be important for technicians today. 

Bobbys Corner- Open Market 12.16.2008

Good Morning:

As the markets await this afternoon’s FOMC interest rate decision-the dollar was lower in fairly|quiet trading.  The markets are anticipating a 50bp cut, but there is speculation that the FOMC may get aggressive and cut up to 75 bp.  This aggressive cut would make the USD the lowest yielding of the G-10 nations-and put additional pressure on the greenback. 

European indexes are higher, as are U.S. Futures.  Asian markets were mixed overnight.

Iran and Venezuela will suggest to Opec (in which they are members) to reduce oil production by up to 2 mil barrels per day to keep the price of crude from dropping further. 

Oil:$45.41                                  Gold:$835.00

Today’s data:
CPi:                       exp: -1.3%     prior: -1%       act: -1.7
Housing Starts:        exp: 730K      prior: 791K      act: 625K (-18.9%)

FOMC interest rate decision at 2:15 PM

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK  

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