US Mortgage Applications Due at 7AM

US Mortgage Applications Data Due at 7AM

Us Mortgage Applications falls 9.5% in current week

The fall takes the applications to a 2 year low. Within the numbers, the purchase index fell by -5.9% while refinancings fell by a wider -11.4%. The 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.12% from 5.14%

With interest rates nearly 100 basis points up from the lows the mortgage market has slowed as affordability declines. A rebound at the current rates will only come if new jobs are created and the pent up demand from new buyers emerges. It is all about Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.

US Mortgage Applications fall 1.8% for the latest week

The US Mortgage Applications fell by 1.8% for the current week.  This was on the back of a large 16.4% gain last week.  The components in the report showed that the Purchase index fell by -5% vs a gain of 13.2% last week. The Refinance Index fell by -0.1% vs a gain of 18.2% last week.  The  average rate rose to 5.02% from 4.88% last week. 

Although down, the fall is from the highest level in 4 months. 

Later this morning the Retail Sales will be released for the month of September. The expectation is for a decline of -2.1% vs a gain of 2.7% last month. The Less Auto release is expected to show a gain of 0.2% vs a larger than expected gain of 1.1%.  The number is expected to be effected by the cash for clunkers program which inflated last months number but will subtract from this months headline number. 

Also due for release at 8:30 will be the Import Price Index for September.  This number is expected to show a MoM gain of 0.2% with the YoY rising to -11.4% from -15.0% last month.  This series is still working through the large declines from 2008 when in Sept, October, November and December the MoM declines were -3.6%, -6%, -7.4% and -16.9% respectively. The falling out of those values will show that the dollar decline and higher oil is raising the import prices by a fairly healthy rate of greater than 8%.  Although, there are counter deflationay effects, if that inflation should slow, the inflation worries will resurface.  That is down the road however.

Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning

Refinancings fell -0.8%
Purchase Index fell -6.2%
The Average Mortgage Rate fell to 4.94%.   4.61% was the lowest rate reached at the end of March

The rate decline is encouraging and has to stay down to squeeze out more sales now that demand from new buyers has kicked in a bit – especially in the shorter end where new home owners are taking advantage of the stimulus plan and rebate for new homeowner program. 

At 8:15 AM today the ADP Employment Change will be released for the month of September.  The expectation is for a -200K reading after a -298K fall last month.  The ADP report does not include government workers. Last month the fall of -298K overstated the job losses from the Non Farm Payroll as that measure showed a decline of -216K,  The Non Farm report for September is due for release on Friday and the is expected to decline by -180K as it continues its improvement.   The last two months have overstated the job losses by 82 and 84K.  The biggest difference was -158K in May when the ADP report estimated a decline of -461K vs -303K.

Also at 8:30 the GDP for the revision to 2nd quarter will be released.  The estimate is for a -1.2% decline vs the original estimate of -1.0% with Personal Consumption showing a -1.0% decline. 

Consumption which accounts for 70% of US GDP has been down for 3 of the last quarters. The 3rd quarter is more the focus now.  As a result, the market should not react strongly to this particular release this morning. 

At 9:45 The Chicago PMI index is due.  The expectation is for another reading above 50 (52.0 Expected). This would be the highest level since September 2008.

Finally at 10:00 AM the Milwaukee PMI is expected to come in. Last month the index rose to 56.0.  This was the highest reading since January 2008.  There is no estimate available.

US Mortgage Applications rise in the current week

On the back of lower rates and lower prices (and tax benefit for new home buyers), the Mortgage Applications rose by 5.6% in the current week.  Within that number the Purchase index rose 3.9% while the Refinance index rose by 6.9%.  The average rate on a 30 year mortgage fell to 5.15% from 5.37% last week. One year ago the average rate was 6.47%.

US Mortgage Applications fell for the current week

The Purchase Index rose by 1.1%.
The Refinance Index fell by -7.2%.

The Average Rate for 30 year bonds rose to 5.38% from 5.17%.

US Mortgage Applications in the US decline

US Mortgage Applications fell by 15.8% in the current week. The purchase index fell by -3.5% and refinancings plunged by -23.3%.   The average rate for the 30 year mortgage was 5.5% versus 5.57% last week.

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