German Factory Orders Released
March 11, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
German Factory Orders fell once again to -8.0% from the previously revised -7.6%. A rise was forecast to -1.9%.
Despite this poor data, the EUR did not react.
German PPI Released
March 11, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
The German PPI came out below expectations at -1.2% from the previous -0.8%. A rise to -0.1% was forecast.
The EUR was unaffected by this data.
ECB’s Weber on the Wires
March 10, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
ECB’s Weber: Global economy in substantial downturn, sees downside risks for financial markets; Germany especially hit hard by falling demand
- Expects to see a few months of negative inflation this year, not to be confused with deflation
- Reiterates low CPI helps consumers but is not deflationary
- Has yet to see signals of stabilization in the economy
- Exports continue to be under considerable stress
- Reminder: back on 24/2, WEber stated that 1% refi rate is his lowest limit
- ECB’s Weber is considered one of the more hawkish members of the ECB governing council
German Finance Minister Steinbrueck on the Wires
March 9, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
German Fin Min Steinbrueck: Remains very reserved about state help for Opel and GM; OPEL failure could cost German govt €2-3B
- Does not believe Euro Currency will come under threat
- Notes US deficit is more of a concern than Irish deficit
- Cannot imagine Euro pillars that could allow individual euro states to confront major difficulties
- Says that banks that needs to go broke “should be allowed to go broke”; key is to protect deposits
German Wholesale Price Index Released
March 3, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
German WPI Beat expectations at -0.4% from the previous -3.0%. A drop to -2.0% was forecast.
The EUR did not respond to this data.
German Unemployment Change Released
February 26, 2009 by Danish FX · Leave a Comment
The German Unemployment Change came out at 40K from the previously revised 59K. A rise to 60K was forecast.
The EUR was firming up into this number and unchanged due to the data.
ECB’s Weber Comments on Eurozone Economy
February 24, 2009 by Alex Chernomordin · Leave a Comment
The ECB’s Weber on the wires had the following comments which pushed the Euro to session lows against the USD/CHF/GBP:
- Some indicators signal that the economy might see the bottom this summer.
- Germany will remain in a recession for a while, but the government should not create another multibillion Euro economic stimulus package.
- Germany exhausted its scope for action with the second economic stimulus plan.
- Advises against tax cuts.
- Room for further ECB rate cuts, says the lower limit to the main refinancing rate should be 1%.
- No danger of deflation spiral.
- In the medium term there is more danger of inflation and once the crisis is over, interest rates will quickly have to be raised again.
- Medium to long-term there are downward risks to growth potential in both Germany and the Eurozone.
- Cannot fathom break up of the Eurozone.
- Strict conditions have to be attached to any aid for a Eurozone state.
JPY Losing Its “Safe Haven” Appeal??
World equities: starting with another 3.4% drop in the US’s DJIA, the UK’s FTSE closing at 11/2008 lows, the German DAX at 2004 lows, the French CAC at 2003 levels, and Japan’s Nikkei just closing down nearly 1.5%…
Following recent currency trends, looking at those frankly scary numbers above, a Forex trader’s brain immediately triggers “buy USD, buy JPY”…But not so fast. With the current troubled state of Japan’s economy being aided by new Japanese government reports finding that the deep recession for the second largest world economy is worsening, the JPY is starting to soften up across the board. The risk averse sell of the USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, etc. was NOT the play today during NY trading as equities took a hit.
With the deepening of economic troubles, Japan’s Prime Minister Aso posted record low approval ratings today and reports claim that he may be planning some changes in his cabinet.
So the question now: What do we make of the recent moves by the JPY? Will the JPY still come out as the safe haven?
The USDJPY is currently trading at a 12-week low
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