GBPUSD falls through 1.5294 support level.

The GBPUSD fell through the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5304 and through support at 1.5294. This is a disappointment for the pair/bulls off the better unemployment numbers this morning. London exits for the day at 12:00 noon today. The move may be related to that and the London fix at that time.   Next support at 61.8% of the days range at 1.5274 and the 200 bar MA at the 1.5267 level (green line in the chart above).

A test of lower support levels for the GBPUSD may be in the cards

The GBPUSD continues to make lower highs and his pounding the support at the 1.5314 level. A break will next target key support at the 1.5294 level.  The low corrective price off the unemployment enduced spike comes in at 1.5296.  The 100 hour bar MA comes ina t 1.5296 currently and the 50% retracement of the move higher today comes in at the 1.5294.  All give traders a level to lean against, with stops on a move below.

Gbp/Usd threatening to break Feb. 26 high

On the strength of better than expected jobless claims change the GBP/USD has escalted to a high of 1.5335, exceeding Feb. 26 high of  1.5322.

In the short term iI would expect a slight correction , possibly down to 1.5300 with the pair still in a bullish mode. If the pair can break clean above 1.5322 (close above) from a daily perspective, this would be further confirmation of a bullish outlook for sterling. The next stop for the pair should be 1.5500.

Market reaction and levels to watch through the FOMC

If the FOMC changes the “extended” time period or by chance continues to raise the Discount Rate toward a more normal spread to Fed Funds, the USDJPY would likely soar.  The high from last Friday was at 91.07. This would be the first stop.  The next target would be 91.37 which was the high on February 17th and above that the 200 day moving average at 91.80.  All could be in target. On the downside, the support comes in at 90.11. The low for the day came in at 89.98.  The low from last week came in at 89.62.

EURUSD

The EURUSD has support below at the the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.3695. Support will also come in at 1.3691.  A move below that level will target the 1.3559 level and the 200 hour moving average at the 1.3654 level.  On the topside, the 1.3777 level followed by the Friday high at 1.3796 become targets. A move above will look to target the 1.3852-73 area. 

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD has had highs at 1.5216, 1.5206 and 1.5206 for the last three days.  A move above these levels paves the way for further upside momentum.  A move above will next target the 1.5298 level where the 50% of the move down from the high on Feb 17th to the low comes in.  On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.5069 level is found.  Before that watch 1.5092 which is the midpoint of the days trading range.

GBPUSD rebounds to resistance in early NY trade

The GBPUSD rebounded to resistance in early NY trade as the pound comes under pressure from the bearish comments from BOE Barker, debt concerns and Moody concerns.  The resistance for the pair comes in at the the 1.5054 level where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the chart above). The high reached 1.5060 on the early NY corrective move, but the price has quickly moved back lower.

A move back below the 1.5034 (blue line in the chart above) which is the 100 hour MA should pave the way for continued downward pressure for the pair.  The low for the day at 1.5018 and the midpoint of the move up from the Feb 26th low to the high reached on Friday at 1.4999 are other support areas for todays trade.

On the topside, if momentum above the 1.5054 can be established a move toward the 38.2% of the days range cannot be ruled out. That level comes in at the 1.5090 level.

Gbp/Usd approaching full retracement of Friday’s move

As stated in an earlier post, Gbp/Usd has been poised to retrace Friday’s move from 1.5050 to 1.5217. The pair is not far off from a full retracement , although strong support should lie at the 1.5050-55 level, as this signifies the 200 hour M/A (1.5054)  and 100% retracement (1.5050).  not far below lies the 100 hour M/A at 1.5033. It is unlikely this first time down the pair is going to break clean through. A brief correction to 1.5100-10 is possible, though the overall outlook still appears bearish.

Sterling breaking to downside

Since Friday’s move up from 1.5050 to 1.5217 Gbp/Usd has been trading sideways. It appears the pair might be ready to retrace this move. It has recently broke below the 38.2% Fibo at 1.5153 and is currently flirting with the 50% Fibo at 1.5133. The 61.8% Fibo should be a more formidable obstacle at 1.5114. If the pair can gain enough momentum and break below , it will then have 1.5050 in its sights. If it holds a move back to 1.5150-55 is likely.

UK’s Dale on the wires

Bank of England’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale had this to say on the current situation in the UK;

*Pause does not necessarily mean loosening at an end

*BoE can withdraw stimulus at any time, in any order

*BoE ready to make more purchases if needed

This commentary seems bearish for the pound and market did act accordingly knocking Gbp/Usd down 30 points to 1.5135. The pair has since regained its losses and currently trades at 1.5163.

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