Gbp/Jpy trading in between 100 and 200 hour M/A

Gbp/Jpy has been a high flyer in recent days. Currently the pair is trading in between its 100 and 200 hour M/A with momentum to the upside. The pair should find resistance around 146.55, a trendline of old hourly highs. If it breaks above then its 200 hour M/A of 146.83 should act as added resistance.

To the downside the 61.8 fibo lies at 145.87 with better support beneath in the form of its 100 hour M/A at 145.40 , with help from the 50% fibo at 145.42.

Gbp/Jpy does an about face as S&P Japanese outlook turns “negative”

Gbp/Jpy traded up to 146.72, just off its 100 hour M/A, on the S&P’s negative outlook of Japan. The pair had looked poised for a further move down earlier in session, however unforeseen news can change a currencies momentum rather quickly.

Gbp/Jpy retracing move up from 144.58, feels effects of BoJ

Since making a new high of 147.28 earlier in this session Gbp/Jpy has been on a steady decline due in part to commentary from the Bank of Japan. The BoJ said it remains committed to fighting deflation as gains in the yen risk stunting the country’s economic recovery.  That being said “it’s highly probable the central bank will come under pressure to ease policy further as the economy loses steam,” said Teizo Taya, a former central bank board member.

 The pair may be headed for a full retracement of move up from 144.58 (low from 1/22) as the yen continues to stengthen across the board. The 50% fibo at 145.93 should act as resistance , if the pair reverses its current momentum.

Nikkei opens up slightly higher. GBPJPY moves up, but comes off as the market consolidates

The Nikkei opened at its highest level in 15 months and this led to a slight move higher in some of the risk pairs like the GBPJPY.  The stocks have since come off and this keeps the pair contained for now.

The GBPJPY has been waffling around the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4902 level (green line in the chart above).  The market has drifted higher on the higher open but is now just below at the 149.00 area.. 

The pair in NY corrected 50% of the Wednesday low to Thursday high in the NY session and moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above)  in late NY trading.  The move above the 200 bar MA (green line in chart above) is the next step for the pair.  

With the low for the day at 148.87 the downside risk is limited.  A move below this level would not be welcomed and would likely lead to a move toward the 148.72 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  However, if the low can hold, and the stock market can hold its own,  a move higher may be in the cards.

Longer term, the pair has an upside target at the 150.42 where the 200 day moving average is found.  From there the market will need to make the call dependent on market demand.   

UK RICS House Price Balance (GBP/JPY)

The UK’s House Price Index came in stronger than expected for October at 34% vs. the estimate of 28% and the prior reading of 22% (revised lower 21%,) hitting a 3-year high. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor was also better than the prior month at +3.8% vs. 2.8% the prior month.

On the GBP/JPY chart below which is capturing yesterday’s move, we see the pair has hit the 50% retracement on this positive report and trying to push through ahead of the Nikkei open and Asian trading.

Gbp/Jpy trades above 100 hour M/A

Gbp/Jpy is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 148.75. If it holds above this level look for a run up to the 200 hour M/A at 149.42. This level should provide good resistance as the 61.8% Fibo lies at 149.42 and an old data line of previous lows adds more resistance (149.43). The pair should be hard pressed to break above the 200 hour.

Sterling/Yen trading below Oct. 2nd low of 140.75

Gbp/Jpy is trading below Oct 2nd low of 140.75. The next level of support for the pair is 139.71 on downside, low from Sept. 28th. If the pair can get back above 140.75 look for a move above 141.00.

Gbp/Jpy not far off low

Gbp/Jpy is not far off session low of 141.90. Fibo retracement lies at 141.88, which has been a good level of support lately. On October 2nd the pair did break below and trade down to 140.75, but by end of that session returned above. If pair can hold it may push 143.00. A more likely scenario sees a break below and possible run down, maybe even below 141.00.

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