anBernanke Sees Signs Economy is Improving and Fiscal Policy Risks

February 2, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

  • Large and increasing level of government debt runs risk of serious economic consequences
  • Long way before labor market can be said to be operating normally
  • Fed will continue to monitor situation in Europe closely, and take every available step to protect US financial system and economy
  • There are concerns that have been weighing on US business investment
  • Inflation has declined and Fed expects it to remain subdued
  • Signs economy has declined and Fed expects it to remain subdued

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Press Conference

January 25, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/formcprojtabl20120125.pdf

  • Fed is not changing the way it conducts monetary policy
  • Fed aims to support a stronger recovery, and reiterates the highly accomodative stance
  • Reiterates late 2014 interest rate language
  • Clarity of policy direction is objective
  • Higher Inflation would reduce ability on decisions
  • maximum employment on equal footing with stale prices
  • not feasible for any central bank to fix long run goal for employment
  • Maximum employment level is not ‘immutable’
  • Economy is expanding moderately with some slowing in global growth
  • Jobless rate is elevated
  • Further improvements in labor market
  • Private sector effort must be significant
  • Oil and commodities prices have flattened, turned to the downside
  • CPI has been subdued, inflation should be at, or below, FOMC mandate
  • Policy assessments should not be viewed as unconditional pledges

FOMC Interest Rate Commentary and Headlines

January 25, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

  • 2012 growth at 2.2-2.6% vs. 2.5-2.9% in November forecast
  • Longer-run unemployment projections signal Fed’s assessment of maximum employment, but assessments uncertain, subject to revision
  • 6 of 17 Fed officials see no rate increase before 2015
  • 2% inflation target most consistent over long run with mandate
  • Maximum employment level largely determined by non-monetary factors
  • Inflation target of 2% in its longer-run goals and policy strategy statement
  • Not appropriate to adopt fixed goal for employment mandate

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Comes Out Much Higher than Expected

January 24, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Survey: 6, Actual: 12, Previous: 3

US Philadelphia Fed Survey Due at 10AM

January 19, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Fed Minutes of November-December Meetings

January 10, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

  • Directors said economic outlook ‘somewhat improved’
  • Governors expressed no sentiment to change discount rate
  • Inflation pressures eased since early ’11
  • KC fed directors sought to raise discount rate to 1%
  • Boston fed sought to slash rate to 0.5%
  • Directors noted ‘moderate growth’  in economy overall

Feds Williams on the Wires

January 10, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Says:

  • ‘Vital’ for fed to aid ‘suffering’ U.S. economy
  • US unemployment level ’a national calamity’
  • Doing ‘everything we can’ to support economy
  • Unemployment likely to stay ‘very high’ for years
  • US unemployment still shockingly high

St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the Wires

January 5, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Says:

  • Fed ‘very close’ to having inflation target
  • Inflation targeting possible in 2012
  • ‘Hard’ to talk of natural rate of unemployment
  • ‘Getting closer’ to longer-term policy issues
  • ‘Some measure of overall prices’ for possible target
  • Inflation measures do make adjustments
  • Forecasters too pessimistic on 2012

 

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