Existing Home Sales & Leading Indicators Data Comes Out Stronger

Existing Home Sales:        Survey: 4.10M           Actual: 4.13M           Prior: 3.83M         Revised: 3.84M

Existing Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 7.1%           Actual: 7.6%           Prior: -27.2%         Revised: -27.0%

Leading Indicators:    Survey: 0.1%     Actual:  .3%    Prior:  0.1%       

US Existing Home Sales & Leading Indicators Data 10AM

US Existing Home Sales Horrific Data

Existing Home Sales:        Survey: 4.65M           Actual: 3.83M           Prior: 5.37M         Revised: 5.26M

Existing Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: -13.4%           Actual: -27.2%           Prior: -5.1%         Revised: -7.1%

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 8     Actual: 11      Prior: 16   

12.5 month supply on the market up sharply from the 8.9 month supply of last month.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.24.2010

Good Morning:

The Yen rose to a 15 year high against the USD, as continued concerns that the global recovery is faltering has investors running to the safe refuge of the JPY.  The USD also rose.
 Data out of Europe suggested that the German economy is showing strength. 
Today we have data in the US regarding the ailing US housing market.  The expectations are for more disappointing news regarding Existing Home Sales.

World equity markets are mostly lower, and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning.

Oil:$72.45                                    Gold:$1219.90

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Existing Home Sales Fall as Richmond Fed up a Touch

Existing Home Sales:        Survey: 6.12M           Actual: 5.66M           Prior: 5.77M         Revised: 5.79M

Existing Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 6.0%           Actual: -2.2%           Prior: 7.6%         Revised: 8.0%

House Price Index (MoM):       Survey: 0.3%       Actual:  0.8%   Prior:  0.3%    

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 20     Actual: 23     Prior: 26   

Existing Home Sales come in at 5.35 million annualized rate

The Existing Home sales came in at 5.35 million annualized rate. This was higher than the 5.29M expectation. The Month supply fell to 8.0 months from the surprise 8.5 month supply last month.

Housing in the US continues to be a drag but any improvement is certainly welcomed.

Canada Retail Sales and US Existing Home Sales due out this morning

As we enter the US Thanksgiving Day week (on Thursday), the economic calendar will start with the Canadian Retail Sales report which will be released at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a gain of +0.6% with Ex Auto sales coming in at +0.4%. 

The Canadian Retail Sales have been improving in 2009 as the global economy improves.  Gas station sales have been the chief contributor over the last 3 months with a 21.8% annualized gain.  However, over the same time period strong gains in pharmacy sales (+13%), Building Supplies (+3.9%) and Furniture and electronics (+3.1%) have also led to gains in ex auto sales.  This segment of the report has shown increases in 3 of the last 4 months indicating the economy is showing some signs of bottoming across various sectors.

At 10:00 AM this morning, the US Existing Home Sales for the month of October will be released. The expectation is for the annualized sales pace to rise to 5.7 million units. This is up from the 5.57 million pace last month and would represent a 2.3% MoM gain.  Be careful in interpreting the MoM % gain as there is usually a revision to the prior month that can skew the figures.  So watch the annualized rate to gauge the strength or weakness of the report.  A sales pace of 5.7 million would be the highest since July 2007.  The 1st time homeowners rebate program is helping sales – especially in the low price range. 

Also released with the annualized sales pace is the months supply of homes on the market.  Last month, the supply of homes fell sharply to 7.8 months which is the lowest supply since March of 2007.  A movement lower would be good news for the housing market.  Watch this number. There is no estimate for this figure.

Existing Home Sales higher but supply increases too

Existing Home sales rises to 4.68 M. +2.9% up.

Supply of homes rises to 10.2 month supply of homes vs revised 9.6 months last month.  Still high despite higher sales pace.

Median Sales price $170,200 up from 169,900

Overall, I still don’t like the supply. Suggests that the supply added is greater than the increase in the sales pace.  For a healthier market, I would like to see increased sales to absorb some of the supply.  With the current scenario, the risk is home prices continue to remain under pressure.

This should be bearish for stocks and perhaps commodities. This could lead ironicallly to some dollar buying as a result.  EURUSD is lower post the report.  GBPUSD has dipped a bit as well.

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