EURJPY moves higher on increased risk appetite

The EURJPY was vaulted higher today on increased risk appetite and corrective forces in the pair. The price rebounded to the 124.46 high yesterday which was in between the last low price on February 1st of 124.59 and the low from April 2009 at 124.36 (see chart above).  The current price is back below these two levels at the 124.20 area and could look to target support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 123.96 level.  A move below should target lower levels with the potential to wander back down toward the 200 bar MA in the same chart at 123.38 currently.   

However, until that time the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart is broken (see blue line in the chart below), the bias remains supportive with topside moves above 124.59 needed for an extension that could next see a test of the 125.91 area (38.2% of the last move down in the pair - see daily chart above).

Watching EURJPY. Testing 200 hour moving average

The EURJPY is pushing the 200 hour MA. The moving average comes in at the 126.32 level. The price has dipped to 126.25, but the price continues to range above and below the key moving average level . A move below should next target the 125.98 where the 100 hour MA is found.    A further leg down would target 125.83.   If the price can hold and close the hour above the 200 bar MA a move back up to 126.58 would be the next target with 126.68 and the high at 127.00 being the progressive steps up.

A move down in the EURJPY would likely need to be helped along by a move below the 90.90 in the USDJPY.  This level has been a level of resistance until today when a move above was achieved.  The high reached 90.94 but the price has since rotated down to test the key 90.90 level.  It is a key level for the USDJPY and will likely be influential in the EURJPY’s fortunes at its key level as well today.

EUR/JPY Approaching 200 Day MAVG

Continuing with its bid following the PIMCO comments and with the Nikkei trading up over 2% and US equity futures bid, the EUR/JPY pair is approaching the 200 day moving average which has supported the pair since the beginning of the summer and could present some resistance on this move up.

EUR/JPY Better Bid After the Close

The EUR/JPY pair has caught a light bid after the close of yesterday’s trading day, even as the Nikkei and US equity futures trade marginally weaker. The pair is approaching the 100 hr mavg and short-term trendline resistance, after it broke above the trending 21 hr mavg, which had resisted the pair through the NY afternoon. We will watch the pair as it approaches the noted levels as the market awaits Chinese manufacturing releases later in the Asian session.

$EURJPY falls sharply after failing at 100 day MA

We have been looking at the EURJPY over the last few days as the price has been hanging aroung the 100 day MA. Yesterday, the pair corrected higher on strong EURO demand (EURUSD and EURGBP both rose).  The price move higher took the pair back to the 100 day MA and above but the topside was stopped at another key level we watch - the 200 hour MA (see hourly chart below). 

Today, the price has trended down and is now testing the 200 day MA at the 132.03 level.  The low extended to 131.81 but the price has moved back up.  Look for dip buyers against the level with stops on moves probably below the 131.81 level (it may be down below the lows). However be careful as the bias is to the downside.  A corrective move should find resistance at the 132.42 level today.

Overall, the price move away from the 100 day MA is what we were anticipating.  The price has traded above and below the 100 day moving average for 14 of 17 days.  Usually, the price gets tired hanging around a key moving average for so long.  As a result, with the price now below the 100 day MA and testing the 200 day moving average I would expect to see sellers on rallies.

EURJPY …Watch 133.41 to 133.51. Retracement level and 100 hour MA

Look for buying against the 100 hour MA at the 133.41/51 level in the EURJPY.   The 133.41 is the 38.2% retracement and the 133.51 is the 100 hour MA. Stop on a break below the 133.41 area.

EURJPY stays below the 100 day MA and moves down. Watch the 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart today.

If you listen to our daily commentary (to sign up to receive the commentary send me an email at greg@fxdd.com), we talked about the EURJPY daily chart. We noted how the price has traded above and below the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) for 12 of the last 14 days. This is indicative of a non-trend market that is trying to decide if it wants to go higher or lower. We commented that if the price was able to stay below that key moving average overnight, this should lead to further downward pressure away from the key moving average. It was time for a break.

Today, the 100 day moving average came in at the 133.81 level. The EURJPY moved up to a high of 133.57 but that was all the upside the market could muster and the price started it’s slide to the downside.

There has been a couple corrective moves in the pair - this currency pair tends to have more volatility then the EURUSD - but the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has been respected (green line in the 5 minute chart below).  The market is acceptive of temporary moves above the 100 bar MA but not above the 200 bar MA it seems.

Going forward, the bias remains down for the pair. Since the price is trading near the lows for the day, waiting for a rebound is recommended. Selling against a stop above the 200 bar MA is the preferred trade. Judge your risk tolerance to determine your approprate trade location, but be patient.

The target? The move away from the 100 day moving average should solicit a move toward a test of the 200 day MA that level comes in at the 131.87 level. That would be the longer term target as long as the shorter term downward bias can remain in tact.

Eur/Jpy trading at tricky level

Eur/Jpy is trading right around session lows after coming off just over 100 points. The 38.2% Fibo retracement using Oct. 29 high of 135.97 and Oct 30 low of 130.94 lies at 132.86. The pair has had a hard time to make a clean break below this level. If it does the pair may be in for a severe drop, possibly down to 131.00. If it holds look for a rebound to 133.50, the 50% Fibo lies at 133.46.

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