Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.13.2011

Good Morning:

The greenback lost steam overnight-as investors look ahead at the Fed’s policy meeting today.  Many market participants are anticipating that the Fed will reiterate their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows.  Most feel that the Fed will not reduce any of the stimuli that they have in place.  They may possibly be able to slow down their asset purchase program, but I do not think they will do that quickly.
The FOMC will have their rate decision and comments at 2:15 PM this afternoon.

In news over the pond: 
Comments from ECB member Makuch that the ECB can’t carry out massive bond purchases-as the EU treaty does not allow the ECB to act like the US Fed. 
The markets did see the ECB out in the market buying Italian bonds today.
With banks in Europe under pressure from regulators to boost their capital reserves, many major European banks are selling some of their best businesses so that they can raise the much needed capital.  This practice will most definitely hurt future long term profits, but the banks have no choice at this time.

November Retail Sales rose .2% versus .6% in October.

Oil and Silver are higher, while Gold is flat.

Asian equity markets were lower-but Europe and US Futures are in positive territory.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.8.2011

Good Morning:

Currency markets were fairly stable overnight as market participants awaited the ECB interest rate decision.  The ECB did cut it’s benchmark interest rate 25 basis points, which was highly expected by analysts.
It seems that the pressure of a downgrade of Italy has temporarily been quelled, after PM Monti announced his newest austerity plans for the faltering Italian economy.
Concerns of S&P cutting the AAA rating’s of Germany and France are very real-as European leaders need to come to an agreement of their plan to fix the debt crisis that is taking over the Euro Zone.  

The Bank of England left interest rates and their QE program unchanged.  This was widly expected by market participants.

The JPY traded stronger as nervousness over the European debt crisis is pushing demand for the safe have of Japan’s currency.

Weekly US jobless claims were 381K-nice to see it below 400k.

Equity markets were lower in Asia-but Europe is showing positive number now-as are US Futures.

Oil is higher, as is Gold and Silver.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.7.2011

Good Morning:

Market participants mostly remained on the sidelines as we await the scheduled ECB meeting along with a EU summit scheduled for tomorrow.  News from the ECB that dollar demand via the swap auction was higher than expected, took a lot of the wind out of the EUR/USD pair.  It seems that the banking sector is still struggling to meet it’s funding obligations.
Yesterday’s 25 basis point drop by the Reserve Bank of Australiais the RBA’s attempt to keep the economic momentum in Austrailia moving forward.

World equity markets are mostly higher-but Europe is showing signs of a small sell-off-and US Futures are  higher at this point.

Gold, Silver and most metals are lower-while oil is also slightly lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.5.2011

Good Morning:

The euro was stronger against the JPY and USD to start the week.  The Italian government approved a new deficit reduction plan ahead of this week’s European summit to discuss the Euro Zone’s sovereign debt issues.  The new plan will include new taxes on luxury items, delay in state employee’s retirement age, and a levy on first time home buyers.
The Euro strength came on the heels of a proposal for ECB loans to be channeled through the IMF.
The proposal is loaded with problems of it’s own.  Many feel that the IMF is just not big enough to sustain large financing for the Euro Zone.  Also, there is concern that members of the undeveloped member countries will feel that too much of the IMF’s funds and resources will be diverted to the Euro Zone.

World equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.

Oil is slightly higher-but Gold is lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.2.2011

Good Morning:

Many traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of this morning’s US employment data.

In Euro Zone news- German Chancellor Merkel commented that joint Euro Bonds are are not the way to solve the debt crisis.  She also agreed that the ECB should not be the lender of last resort for the Euro Zone.
Chancellor Merkel stated that  the crisis will take years to clean up and get the region’s finances back on track.
Continued talks between the ECB and IMF will hopefully result in some shared responsibility by both parties.
Merkel and French President Sarkozy will meet ahead of the European summit next week-as these 2 countries have the most to lose from a Euro breakup-or any disconnect in the Euro Zone. 

This morning’s Us employment data is expected to have NFP increase by 125K-but many are calling for over 200K.  These additions will unlikely put a dent the overall unemployment picture.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.1.2011

Good Morning:

The euro picked up against the USD and JPY-after Spain and France had good bond auctions.  The euro also showed strength after six central banks acted together to cut the borrowing costs of USD.   
Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of bonds-which was the maximum target of 5 year notes-with a yield of 5.544% compared to 4.848% at the last auction on Nov.3.
France sold  1.57 billion euros of 10 year bonds at 3.18%-slightly lower than the 3.22% at the Nov.3 auction.
Comments from ECB President Draghi describing the role of the ECB, and that the ECB will be willing to do more-if policy makers do there job, and get their act together.

The continued sovereign debt crisis in Europe will be a main focus of the markets.  The action by the 6 central banks yesterday was positively embraced by investors.  The fact that this action was needed-shows how dire the bank funding situation is.

Jobless claims were higher-up 6K to 402K.

Remember-tomorrow is the US employment data report.
Non Farm Payrolls  are expected to be up 120K-and the Unemployment rate should stay at 9%.

US Futures are slightly lower
Gold is up-Oil is down.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.30.2011

Good Morning:

The euro dropped early in the overnight session (1.3258).  During this time comments by a representative from Peoples Bank of China regarding a cut in reserve ratios set by the government,  this sent the Shanghai index down 3.3%.   Then comments by a Italian regulator that there is a risk of a euro breakup if the ECB does not change it’s role, and get more deeply involved in the Euro Zone’s financial crisis caused the single currency to loose steam.

Irish PM Kenny stated that he sees “real and present danger” from the current EU crisis.  He feels that the crisis is spiraling out of control-and European leaders must make decisive actions and decisions. 
EU finance minister are going to look at the IMF and not just the ECB to help out during this crisis.  This comes on the heels of conceding that the bailout fund has missed it’s target.

ADP payrolls printed at 206K-much better than the 130K the street had predicted.

Today we have Chicago PMI data-and the Beige Book will be released at 2PM this afternoon.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.18.2011

Good Morning:

The ECB was back in the markets buying Spanish and Italian debt again-but at the same time newly appointed ECB chief Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB will not become the lender of last resort to the Euro Zone-let’s wait and see what happens.

The GBP gained against the USD-even after comments from the Bank of England that with the weak UK economy-they may consider additional monetary stimulus.  The BOE will most probably start to reevaluate this in the beginning of 2012-after they are able to evaluate the data from 2011.

Italian 10 year bonds are still trading below the 7% handle-which is a very significant psychological level.

World equity markets were and are lower-Dow Futures are higher at this time.
Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

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