Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.4.2010

Good Morning:

Both the BOE kept interest rates steady.  BOE did not expand it’s asset purchasing program which was expected.
The ECB also left interst rates unchanged-and will have a conference call at 8:30 AM.
Greece began selling 10 year bonds today-pricing them with a yield of 6.39% vs.6.1% on their current bonds.
Greece’s prime Minister has promised to reduce their budget deficit by cutting spending and wages.  Today protesters occupied the finance ministry as a protest against the new proposals.

World equity markets were mostly lower-and US Futures are slightly higher this morning.

Oil:$80.76                                             Gold:$1138.40

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ECB keeps rates unchanged.

Trichet to speak at 8:30 AM.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.14.2010

Good Morning:

News from the Euro-Zone this morning was as expected with the ECB leaving interest rates stable at 1%-as the EZ economy continues to recover from the worst recession since World War 2.
At 8:30 this morning the ECB will have a press conference-and it will be interesting to  see what comments Mr. Trichet says about growth in 2010 within the EZ.

Today North America will be looking at Retail Sales, Import Prices, and Jobless Claims.(see below)

World equity markets rose as investor confidence in economic growth along with speculation that central banks will continue to keep interest rates at record lows helped keep equities in positive territory. .
Oil traded below $80/barrel.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ECB Rate Decision due at 7:45 AM. No change expected.

The ECB Rate decision at 7:45 AM.  No rate change is expected. Of note willof course be the comments from ECB Trichet at 8:30. 

In the Eurozone today, the Servive PMI came in at 49.9  expectation of 49.5.  The Retail Sales Report came in at -0.2% MoM (vs +0.1% exp) and -1.8% YoY (vs. -2.2% exp). The prior month was revised higher to 0.0% from -0.2% and -2.0% vs -2.4% YoY. 

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD is up with the weakness in the dollar. There is rumblings in the market that the gold increase yesterday may be a program out of China to diversify out of the dollar. Gold continues to be bought today and this will likely keep that story alive.  The pair has resistance against the trendline at the 1.4352 level.  Above that is another trendline at 1.4392.  The high for 2009 comes in at 1.4447.   On the downside, the pair moved back above the 100 and 200 hour MA along with the 50% retracment level at the 1.4291 area. The market will ultimately need to stay above these levels today. 

Before that level is the 1.4313 to 1.4318 level where highs and the 61.8% retracements levels are located.

ECB leaves key rates unchanged. The EURUSD tracks moving average resistance today.

Trichet will speak at 8:30 AM at his normal press conference.  Comments on the economy, on the liquidity measure which added funds to the banking system for a year and feelings on things like debt burden will likely be discussed.

The EURUSD has been tracking the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The current level comes in at 1.4097.  The trendline has been tested on 4 separate occasions.

Ireland debt downgraded by Moody’s. ECB on deck.

Off to a wild start as Moody’s has cut Ireland’s sovereign rating to Aa1 from Aaa

Moody’s cites three thing with regard to their debt, the affordability, financeability and reversibility.  Negative outlook reflects the risk to deterioration in the affordability - that is the cost for the debt - and the financeability (whether Ireland will be able to fund the debt a reasonable rates). 
 
Moody’s expects the debt problems will remain unfavourable for several years.  They also think the downside risks outweigh upside risks in the near to medium term.

The ECB interest rate decision will be made at 7:45 am.  Although no change is expected, if there is a surprise (and it would be a surprise), it would be for a cut. Trichet will speak at 8:30 AM.

ECB’s Sramko on the Wires

ECB’s Sramko: Period of recover is seen as moving deeper in 2010

ECB Loan Auction injects 442.24 billion into EURO banks

Today the ECB lent a record 442.24 billion Euros to banks at 1% for 1 year.  The move is the ECB attempt to help ease credit conditions in European banks. It is also hoped the injection will help increase lending and lower mortgage rates.   

The action could be viewed as bullish or bearish for the EURUSD.  From a bullish standpoint, it is a stimulus that should boost bank activity and in turn economic activity.  From a bearish standpoint, the action should help keep rates low.  

The ECB will offer a subsequent 1 year operation on September 29th.  However, the rate could be different depending on market conditions. It is not assumed that the rate will be any lower.

The EURUSD has found buying interest against the 1.4019 area (38.2% retracement support).  The close yesterday was 1.4078. This level has held the topside for most of the NY session today.

Next Page »