AUD/USD Upside Pressure Looks to Break Triangle Pattern Consolidation

AUD/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (6/21/2011) has continued to languish within a large consolidation represented by a symmetrical triangle pattern formation. This converging consolidation has been forming since the all-time high of 1.1010 was hit in early May. Currently nearing the apex of this triangle, price action could soon make a significant breakout. As the overall trend has been bullish for at least a year, the directional bias for a breakout of this consolidation is potentially to the upside. If this bullish breakout occurs, the key upside target would be a re-test of the all-time high at 1.1010 once again. In the event that this triangle fails to serve as a trend continuation pattern, key downside support within the context of the longstanding uptrend continues to reside around the important 1.0200 price region.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

AUD/USD Seeks Break of Triangle Pattern Consolidation

AUD/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (6/17/2011) has consolidated into a large triangle pattern after descending along a bearish resistance trend line extending back to the all-time 1.1010 high hit in early May. The bottom border of the triangle resides around the 1.0440 price level. This triangle consolidation occurs within the context of a year-long uptrend extending back to the June 2010 low around 0.8080. Price action is currently progressing towards the triangle apex, and a strong breakout could be imminent. In the event of a continuation pattern breakout to the upside, in the direction of the prevailing trend, the key upside target is clearly a re-test of the 1.1000 area resistance high. In the event of a break to the downside, which would extend the bearish correction from the all-time high, downside support resides around the key 1.0200 support region.

(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)

James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD

Charting the Majors with James Chen Rebroadcast

Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/335262736 .

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 7th

NY Evening Forex Commentary for June 6th 2011

The Midday Forex Commentary for June 6th 2011

AUDUSD moves lower in early NY trade

The AUDUSD is moving back lower in early NY trade. The price has been consolidating in a narrow range for the day with 1.0616 being the high and 1.0532 being the low. It is an inside day when compared to yesterday’s high/low range (see chart below).

The key level to eye on the downside today remains the 1.0511 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from the March 2011 low to the high reached on May 2nd. The low yesterday reached 1.0512 where willing low risk buyers entered and pushed the market back higher. A break of the level today, opens the door for further selling momentum (see chart above).

On the topside, look for resistance this morning at 1.0578-91 area (see chart below) to be an important level to stay below. If the price can remain below these two moving averages (100 and 200 bar on the 5  minute chart), the bears remain in charge. A move above and the intraday up and down continues.

Aud/Usd; has it found a short term bottom?

Aud/Usd has been coming off during the last couple of trading sessions and the sell off was accentuated by poor retail sales number from down under. This may present a buying opportunity as the pair is depressed nearly four big figures. If the pair retraces 1.0814 should be the first line of resistance. This is the 38.2% fibo of move down from 1.1010 to 1.0693. If the pair continues its downward slide 1.0660-70 may add some support.

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