Aussie Westpac Consumer Confidence

The Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for March significantly bear the prior reading of -2.6% with a positive reading of +0.2%, helping the AUD move higher against the USD and JPY, continuing its push after the earlier comments from the RBA’s Lowe. The Consumer Confidence Index was also better than the prior month at 117.3 vs. 117. The AUD/USD pair  is continuing higher and approaching some resistance below the 92 cent handle.

AUDUSD respects 100 hour MA and bounces. Key levels remain.

Although the AUDUSD dipped below the 100 day MA at the 0.9067 level (see chart below), it ran into support against the 100 hour MA just below at the 0.9056 level. The combo has given the pair a lift as technical traders used the low risk trading level to buy against (with likely stops on a break).

Now, with the market back higher, the levels below remain as key support.  A break will likely lead to further selling.  So be aware and be prepared should the level give way.  

On the topside, look for resistance against the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below (blue and green lines). Those levels come in at the 0.9085 and 0.9087 respectively.

Reprots that the US may be closer to tightening and commodity selling is pressuring the AUDUSD despite better than expected data overnight which showed Business Confidence up (19 vs 15 last month) and larger Job Advertisement (+19.1% vs -8.1% last month).

AUDUSD testing the 100 day MA at 0.9070

A break should lead to higher levels.

AUDUSD moves toward the 100 day MA at 0.9070

The AUDUSD is moving up toward the 100 day MA as oil and commodities increase and stocks increase.  Copper futures are up 5.90. Gold is up 19.63. Oip is up 1.88. 

The RBA raised rates yesterday to 4% and are moving closer to the the 4.5% rate which is neutral rate the bank is moving toward.  The AUDUSD initially but turned around and has rallied for most of the NY session.  Look for sellers against the 100 day MA as profit takers enter.  A break, however, should see increased upside momentum. 

On the downside support comes in at the 0.9032 level.  Other support comes in at the 90.15-19 area.

AUDUSD testing intraday high for the 3rd time

Watching the triple top in the AUDUSD at the 0.9007 level.  A break above should lead to a surge higher with 0.9030 area the next target. The high from last week at 0.9070 becomes another target within site.

On the downside, the price bounced off the 50% of the consolidative range at the 0.8935 level earlier. This is positive and the price is above the 200 hour MA at the 0.8951 level (green line) which is also a positive development today. 

As a result, if the 0.9007 level holds, look for buyers against a dip to 0.8966.  If the price can base off of that level, a move higher is likely.

AUDUSD tests its support level after falling below the 200 hour MA

The AUDUSD broke through the 200 hour MA (at 0.8946) and has support at the 0.8882 level where the level has had around 7 or so lows/highs in the region over the last few weeks of trading (see chart above). The level is also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low on February 5th to the high today.   The level has slowed the decline but will it attract enough buying support against the level to scare the shorts? 

Look for upside resistance at the 0.8909/18 level now. This was where the market last paused on the move down to the low at 0.8878.  A move above this level wold look toward the 0.8946 level (200 hour MA) but I would expect early sellers before that level. 

AUDUSD testing 200 hour MA at 0.8946

The AUDUSD broke through support at the 100 hour MA (at 0.8980) and the pair has moved immediately down to the 200 hour MA level at 0.8946. We outlined these levels in the morning videos.  The pair seems to be stalling at the level currently but could come under additional pressure if the price does not rebound soon.   Be aware. On the topside, the mkt will be watching the 100 hour MA at the 0.8980 level.  The ability to bounce 4 times off that moving average level and then giving way and the fact the moving average is flattening, suggest the bias is down.  A break above will muddy the water for the short term bears, however.

AUD/USD Ranging off Technicals

After an uneventful opening day to the trading week, most majors have remained in a tight range as indecision in the markets has currencies, equities and bonds trading relatively unchanged. For the AUD/USD chart we examined yesterday, we see the former trendline support held as resistance and the pair is now finding support at the 100 hr moving average.

Next Page »