The Initial Claims for Unemployment is due out at 8:30 ET today.  The expectations are for a rebound to 320,000 from a surprising 301,000 last week.   This value is near the low point of the release.  It also is surprising given the last employment report and of course the markets proclamation that the US is already in a recession.  If the US is in a recession the number should be closer to 400,000 not 300,000. 

The chart below is the Initial Claims data from 2001 when the US had recessionary growth.   During this period, the employment claims had 400,000 as the base - not 300,000.  The market today will be watching to see if the number starts returning to levels more indicative of slowing employment growth.

Chart provided as a courtesy by FXDD