RBA Meeting Minutes

The RBA Meeting Minutes have moved the AUD/USD pair lower by ~ 20 pips as the market remains in a tight range to start the new trading day, early in the Asian session. The details of the minutes are as follows:

• Global growth at ‘reasonable pace’ is the most likely result.
• “Appropriate for rates to gradually move to normal.
• Australia growth may now be ‘at or close to trend.’
• March Minutes show the RBA is ready to respond to other outcomes.
• Mining industry to provide ’significant’ growth boost.
• Europe debt concerns unlikely to impact global growth.
• Europe remains ‘weakest area’ in global economy.
• March increase a ‘timely’ step toward normal rates.
• Main risk from Greek debt problems is contagion.
• Recent economic figures ‘quite firm.’
• Established home market is very ‘buoyant.’
• Underlying inflation falling further in near term.
• Discussed sovereign risk issues associated with Greece.
• Policy decision based on ‘most likely’ outcome.’

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Forex Evening Report - March 15

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USDCAD keeps below the 100 hour MA

The USDCAD moved above the 1.0205-23 resistance but just could not get above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0233 (high reached 1.0230).  The market now stands between support at 1.0205 and resistance against the moving average level as the market continues to keep rallies underwraps in the USDCAD. The price has not closed above the 200 hour MA since March 1st.

EURUSD stays below the 100 hour MA at 1.3668

The EURUSD is staying below the 100 hour moving average at the 1.3668 level since breaking earlier.  The high corrective price has moved up to 1.3667.  As long as the price can remain below this resistance level, the bias remains to the downside.  A move back above could see the price move back toward 1.3691.

Forex Midday Report - March 15

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EURUSD holds resistance and falls toward 100 hour MA support

The 1.3708 level held the top as per the prior post and this has led to a move through key support at 1.3691.  The next target support comes in at 1.3666.  This is the 100 hour MA level and should find some additional intraday profit takers. A break targets the 200 hour MA at the 1.3651 and then 1.3617.

GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA. Should find some profit taking resistance

As per prior post, the GBPUSD is testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at 1.5086. The high reached 1.5086. Look for sellers against this level with stops on a move back above the 1.5090 level where the 38.2% of the move down from the high today comes in.

EURUSD tests key support at 1.3691 as the market drifts lower.

The 1.3691 level has been a key level of support and resistance from March and also the first spike high on February 23rd. (see prior post).  This level should find some support/profit taking buyers. A break, however,  would target a move toward the 100 hour MA at the 1.3665 level.  Topside resistance comes in at 1.3708. A move back above this level would target 1.3724.

Hurting the EURUSD is profit taking in the EURGBP which has that pair back down testing the 100 hour MA at the 0.9086 level.  A break of that level might further pressure the pair. Key level for the pairs.

USDCAD moves above the old trendline and eyes the key resistance area at 1.0207/23

The USDCAD is moving above the old trendline support at the 1.0192 level as the market corrects from the new lows established on Friday. There is key upside resistance at the 1.0207-23 level which were the lows off the daily chart. This becomes key upside support now for the pair. The 1.0192 will be watched as support now. If the price can find support above this level there may be some upward corrective momentum for the pair.  The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above ) is also resistance at the 1.0237 level for the pair.

Forex Morning Report - March 15

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January TIC Flows less then expected

The Net TIC flows came in at $19.1 Billion which is less than the expected $47.5 billion

EURCHF continues move lower as market tests SNB

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) said last week that they would not tolerate excessive strength in the SwissFranc. That opened the window for traders to probe what excessive means. The level used to be 1.4630.  Now the pair is down to 1.4527. This is the lowest level since October 2008.  The daily lows in October reached 1.4409, 1.4319 and 1.4209 . I would doubt the SNB would look to have the currency strengthen to these levels - risking a sharp fall on breaks of the levels.  What level is ripe for some intervention?  We don’t know, but if the pair continues to fall watch the 1.4483 level  This was the low off the hourly bar back from October 2008 period and a logical technical level that may be a target support level. On the topside, the 1.4630 area becomes an upside ceiling now barring a fundamental shift in the CHF. 

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