ISM Non-Manufacturing Improves, Factory Orders Lower

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

• Survey: 53.2, Actual: 56.8, Prior: 52.6

Factory Orders

• Survey: 1.5%, Actual: 1.1%, Prior: 1.0%, Revised: 2.2%

EURUSD fall stalls. Correction will be eyed closely.

The fall in the EURUSD has stalled and the correction will be eyed closely by traders. The 38.2% of the sharp move lower comes in at 1.3118. The low from the asian session comes in at 1.3114. The low at 1.3124 is another important level. Traders, looking for further downside momentum (dollar buying) would not want to see the pair move above this area. Staying below it, keeps the bears in charge intraday at least.

The weeks range of 201 pips in the EURUSD is still light.  There exists a chance for an extension.  The low came in at 1.3025.  It seems a long way off but keep in mind if the momentum continues.

USDCHF tests topside trendline.

The USDCHF moved above trendline resistance at the 0.9226 level but come off. This trendline is from the high on Jan 20 connecting to the high on Jan 25th. The price previously moved above 38.2% of the same move down at the 0.92139.  Traders will be watching this level for bullish clues. If support holds against this level, the upside should have further potential with a move toward the 0.9244 (50%) being the next target.  If the level is broken, traders will look for the underside of the  lower trendline in the chart above (currently at the 0.9203 level) to hold support.   This trendline was initial resistance on the first surge higher before breaking higher.

GBPUSD falls below 100 hour MA but finds support at trendlines.

The lower trendline comes in at 1.5745 area and is from the lows back on Jan 13th connecting to the low on January 18th.  The 100 hour MA come in at 1.5781 currently.  The 1.5760 level is  another key level off the daily chart. It is the 38.2% of the move down from the August high.  This was broken this week. A move back below is not welcomed.

EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA, 50% wks range and 200 hour

The EURUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA and the weeks midpoint at 1.31257. The price has now moved below the 200 hour MA and looks toward the next target at the 1.3089 areal. 1.3076. 1.3051 and the low for the week at the 1.30257 are downside targets.

Traders will like to see corrections stay below the 1.31257 midpoint (and the 100 hour MA at the 1.3137) if the price breaks back above the 1.3137 level (100 hour MA) all bets off for the downside as the market stays unsure of the directional bias given the strong number.

USDJPY soars higher (well relatively) on better jobs.

The USDJPY soared higher on the better jobs data. A move above the November low at 76.54 should open the door for further upside momentum. The 75.82 is the 200 hour MA. This will be another target level above.

The EURUSD moves higher initially but comes off as mkt thinks about it

The initial move was to the upside for the pair, but the market is rethinking the initial risk on reaction in that pair. The number may be strong enough to warrant an buy the dollar vs the EURO assuming EU has continued problems and the US is recovering.

THe 100 hour MA at the 1.3138 level and the midpoint of the weeks range at the 1.31257 will be eyed for clues. Move below these levels and the bias could switch to the downside. Stay above and remains bullish. The 1.3184 level and then the 1.3211-15 level become targets above.  The high for the week was at 1.3226.  The range for the week is a narrow 201 pips.  That range can be extended today so watch the key levels for clues.

Market is still battling it out with the buyers holding the line.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Surge, Unemployment Rate Down to 8.3%

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  140K     Actual:  243K    Prior:  200K      Revision: 203K

Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 160K    Actual: 257K     Prior:  212K     Revised: 220K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 13K   Actual:  50K   Prior:  23K     Revised:  32K

Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  8.5%     Actual: 8.3%     Prior:  8.5%      

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.2%      Prior:  0.2%         

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.4      Actual: 34.5         Prior:  34.4

US Jobless rate drops to February of 2009

Great Employment Numbers

Payroll up Unemployment rate down to 8.3%
Underemployment 15.1%

Key levels through NFP report

Overnight review and preview

Overnight the all the major currency pairs traded in very narrow trading ranges as the market awaits the US Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations is for
the NFP to show a rise of 140K vs 200K last month. The job creation ex government workers is expected to rise by 160K vs 212K last month (Private payroll).  The Unemployment rate is
expected to remain at 8.5%. Last month the Underemployment Rate was at 15.2%.  Mfging jobns are expected to add 13K jobs vs 23K last month.  The direction of the market will be determined off the number. If the number is weak, you can espect a lower dollar on the back of the chance for QE3 becomes more real.  If the number is strong, the reaction may not
be as predictable. The market may look at it as good for the dollar, but it may also view the gains as good for extending risk.  As a result, it is important to watch the technical levels.  In the EURUSD the range for the week is 201 pips.  In 2011 there were only 2 weeks with a more narrow trading rang. The high for the week was in the 1st hour of trading at 1.3226. The low on Weds at 1.3025. The midpoint is 1.31257. This will be a bullish or bearish tipping point after the number is released – above 1.31257 bullish, below 1.31257 bearish. The GBPUSD has had a more normal week – trending to the upside. The pair moved outside the 2 1/2 month range this week (1.5795 was the highest px going back to 11/18). The low today was 1.5784. The USDJPY broke lower on Monday and bottomed at 76.01. The 76.39 is the midpoint of the wk. A move above this level is needed for any upside chance. A move below 76.00 has the Aug 11 low at 75.94 and then the post WWII low of 75.56 as targets. USDCHF has been above and below the 100 day MA every day this wk. The 100 day MA is at 0.9167 today. Price moves above it= bullish. If price stays below it = bearish (after the release).

NFP awaited. Markets coiling for a move

Canada Unemployment Rises

• New Change in Employment – Survey: 22.0K   Actual: 2.3K   Prior: 17.5K
• Unemployment Rate – Survey: 7.5%   Actual: 7.6%   Prior: 7.5%