EURUSD short position falls 8% on the week: CFTC Commitment of Traders report

Feds Bullard says Fed may have to raise rates before 2014

• Strong data weakens case for QE.
• He is a non voter on FOMC
• Data surprising on the upside
• Unemployment likely to fall to 7.8% this year.

EURAUD continues its fall to new lows

The EURAUD has fallen sharply today as the AUD benefits from the stronger US data.The thought is if the global economy is going to get better, it will help the Australian economy the most. The EU meanwhile still has their problems to sort through and with austerity cuts likely to dominate, the may need help from a lower currency (that is the theory or story at least).   The fall lower has so far had little in the way of a correction. The shorter term chart above, has flattened out, but with lower lows and lower highs still in place.  A move above 1.2189 and thens 1.2208 is needed to get shorts concerned. From there, look for resistance at the 1.2222 level (38.2% of the move down today).

With the market making new lows today, where might there be a floor. Looking at the weekly chart, the bias remains decidely bearish. The price has a Fibonacci extension that measures out to the 1.20000 level. This would be a nice round number to shoot for. Below that level the 1.1861 is the bottom trendline support target.

FT: Greece leaders oppose new austerity measures

A failure for Greece to approve austerity measures would likely lead to no money from Troika and Greek default in March.

This is the link to the story

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/76b31dcc-4e88-11e1-ada2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lLJo4c4L

EURUSD moves back above the weeks midpoint and buyers follow

The EURUSD moved above the midpoint of the weeks range and has pushed higher.  The next target is the 1.3159 level and then 1.3184. The move higher in the dollar against the EURO on the better US data, has given way to “risk on”. Greece hope and stronger US help the flows.  The pair is still mired in the narrow trading range for the week. Perhaps next week the pair finds more of a direction.    In the meantime will be paying attention to the technicals for clues as to bias until the break occurs.

GBPUSD expectations for additional QE revised lower

The expectations for additional QE by the BOE at their interest rate meeting next week, has been racheted down to 50 B additional from 75 B which has been more of the concensus.  The better global tone is perhaps a contributing factor.  Besides, it is easier to add rather than subtract down the road.

Swiss government spokesperson says Franc cap of at least 1.2000

The EURCHF is above the 200 day MA a thte 1.2054 level. A close would be bullish from a technical perspective. The problem is the longs are likely overcrowding the shorts as the pair as inched lower and lower toward the 1.2000 floor.  In an overcrowded trade, the buyers need to continue to show up. If they don’t those buyers could become disenchanted and sell.   So barring intervention, the topside may be limited (reference USDJPY).

EURUSD looking like a squeeze higher? Will be watching the 1.3126 level

Although the midpoint of the week at 1.31267 level has yet to be breached, the sellers don’t seem to be in control. A move above the 1.31267 level should encourage buying/shorts covering as market struggles with dollar strength or is this a signal for “risk on” EURUSD buying.

Gold sells off on relief from US data.

AUDUSD moves to 6 month high

The AUDUSD moved to the highest level since August 2nd 2011 on the back of the “Risk On” trade from the better than expected US Employment report .  The new high overtook the September 2011 hight the 1.0762 level  On the daily the next targets are at the 1.0810 and 1.0835 level which are topside trend line targets.

USDCAD dips below the 200 day MA

Despite weaker than expected Canada Employment, the USDCAD is taking its clue from the “risk on” traders.  The 0.9960 level is the 200 day MA and the price has dipped below this level after surging on the Canada employment report which came out at 7 AM (before the US report). Closing below this level today would be bearish for the pair. The last time the price has closed below the 200 day MA was September 1st 2011.

The EURUSD rebounds. No news seen

Weeks midpoint is looking to be tested at the 1.31257 level. A move above will be a disappointment for the bears.

A look at the EURUSD, GPDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY

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