EURUSD keeps 1.3735 as the lid for now at least

The 1.3735 level was the high from March 3rd.  Yesterday, the market stalled at this level before giving way and moving lower. Today, the price is back up testing this level.   The high reached in the last few minutes found sellers against the level and we have seen the price rotate back down.  The 1.3691 level will continue to be watched below where the 100 hour MA and the old highs and lows through March have increased the importance of the level.   1.3704, the high from March 8th is also a level to watch below. 

The FOMC rate decision is later today. That and perhaps the London fixing at 12:00 noon today will cause some fireworks (there is some talk that EURGBP may be pressured and this may keep a lid on the EURUSD).  At the moment we are just range trading.

Forex Morning Report - March 16

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Gold moving sharply higher. Oil moves higher but USDCAD and AUDUSD don’t react.

Gold just spiked above the 200 hour MA level at the 1119 .48 level. This is now the support area for the pair. Oil is also up on the day with the Oil futures ups 1.09 currently.

The USCAD has not been able to fall through the 1.0153 low from last week on the rise in oil/gold . AUSUSD has also moved lower - falling below the 100 hour MA at the  0.9148. This is not what you would expect given the move up in commodities.   Watch 1.0253 support in the USDCAD and the 0.9148 resistance level in the AUDUSD. Support on the AUDUSD comes in at the 0.9112 level which is the 200 hour MA on the chart below (green line).

USDCAD falls on better economic data

The Manufacturing Sales rose by a stronger than expected 2.4% for the month of January. The gains were led by primary metals, plastics and petroleum sales.

The USDCAD has come under pressure off the report as the price moves toward the low from Friday at the 1.0155 level.  A break of the lows will bring back into focus the parity level 1.0000 for the USDCAD.  The last time the USDCAD was at parity was in July 2008.

On the topside the resistance now come in at the 1.0183 level and above that the 2009 low price of 1.0205 remains key topside resistance (1.0214 and 1.0223 were 2010 lows prior to the last move lower last week and should also be resistance levels today). 

Interim support may come at 1.0116 and 1.0074 areas. During July 2008 when the USDCAD was last at these levels, the 1.0116 level was a resistance high while the 1.0074 area was…

Housing Starts/Building Permits a touch better. Canada Manufacturing Sales soars.

Housing starts came in at 575K annualized pace while Building Permits were also a touch better at 612K vs 601K expectations

Canada Manufacturing Sales soared 2.4% vs 0.6% expectations. USDCAD is falling on the news

US Import Prices fall -0.3% the YoY comes down as well t0 -11.2% from 11.5% last month.  The next few months should show the YoY  trending back down as sharp gains from a year ago start to come out of the YoY equation.

EURUSD watching 1.3691 support

The 100 hour MA is at 1.3690. The 1.3691 level has been a support/resistance level to eye. Other support comes in at 1.3704.  Topside resistance at 1.3735. 

Earlier today the 200 hour MA held support twice.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.16.2010

Good Morning:

Euro Zone finance ministers worked out a bailout program for Greece.  The program  is of emergency loans, should the austerity plan of lowering wages and raising taxes does not do enough to reign in the Greek budget deficit.
Also- a report that showed German investor confidence dropped less than expected also helped ther Euro in overnight trading. 

The FOMC will announce their rate decision at 2:15 PM (NY Time).  Interest rates are expected to be kept at record lows to sustain the economic recovery.

World equity markets rose, as the EU comes up with a plan for Greece, and that the US will keep interest rates steady.
US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.

Oil:$80.02                                         Gold:$1113.20

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

…

GBPUSD surges higher in early NY trade. Holds resistance level from yesterday.

The GBPUSD has moved up sharply over the last few hours after falling earlier on concerns about the debt situation in the UK.  The price is up testing the lows prior to the fall yesterday That level comes in at the 1.5151 level. The price has stalled at the level it seems. Support comes in at the 1.5110 level which was the initial highs on the spike higher today. The 1.5085 is addtional support.  A move above the 1.5151 level would look toward the close from Friday at 1.5183.  Above that the 1.5206 high price for the week.

A sharp fall in the EURGBP has helped contribute to the GBPUSD strength this morning as well.

The March 16th 2010 NY Opening Commentary is available for viewing

Eurozone CPI

Released at the same time as the German ZEW sentiment number was CPI data also out of the eurozone, whose reading was in line with its forecast.

• CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 0.9%   Prior: 0.9%
• Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.8%   Actual: 0.8%   Prior: 0.9%

German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment

The EUR traded higher across the board, and made a new high session high against the USD after the release of a  better than expected ZEW economic sentiment out of Germany.  Additionally, the ZEW economic sentiment number for the eurozone was lower at 37.9. The details are as follows:

• German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Survey: 43.5   Actual: 44.5   Prior: 45.1
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment - Survey: 40.1   Actual: 37.9    Prior: 40.2

Wolfgang Franz, the ZEW President has made the following comments:

• Export oriented industries will drive economic growth.
• German business activity has moved from intensive care to rehad.
• German economy is still far from a full recovery.
• The market has priced in all Greek problems.
• There might be some expectation of a bailout for Greece, but cannot say for sure.
• Inflation expectations are going down; point to a more moderate growth path.

UK DCLG HPI y/y

The market was not impressed by a much better than expected HPI number out of the UK as it had no reaction to the 6.2% reading for February; the forecast was 3.6% and the prior reading was 2.9%. The GBP is currently trading at 1.5057, up from 1.4977 two hours ago.

Portugal’s dos Santos gives positive spin on outlook

Portugal’s Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos says Portugal on right track to solve its problems and the country won’t need any help.

This can be viewed as good news for the Eurozone, as Portugal, as well as Italy and Spain, are feared to be the next Greece. Eur/Usd has just bounced off of its lows about 15 points to 1.3671.