USDCHF moves down toward 200 day MA at 1.0491

The USDCHF is moving back down toward the 200 day MA support at 1.0491.  A move below this level will likely pressure the USDCHF further.  However, the higher the CHF goes (versus EURCHF and USDCHF) the better the chance for intervention.  That intervention level would be the new tolerant level for the EURCHF.  The EURCHF has has been pressured today and is trading at the 1.4477 level, 150 pips below the old floor at 1.4630.

USDCAD on the way to parity?

The 1.0100 level gave way and the price is down testing the next support at the 1.0074 level. This level the last time the price was this low, was a ceiling then floor. A move below this level has little in the way of support until the parity level.   Of course the market will target this and likely will find buyers against the level with stops on a move below. Fundamentally, with oil higher and growth numbers better, this benefits the CAD$ and that lowers the USDCAD.   

GBPUSD bounces through resistance levels as trend resumes

The GBPUSD has moved up more sharply then thought after correcting 61.8 of the days range.  The move is not normal, but that is par for the course given current trading environment.  Support should now be found against the 1.5351 and then 1.5332.  A break of 1.5380 starts to look for the 1.5421 area.

USDJPY breaks through the support at the 90.34

The USDJPY fell below the 200 hour MA support and continued the fall until finding support against he 90.09/13 levels.  90.09 is the 100 day MA support. The 90.13 level is the  midpoint of the range from Feb 19th to the low on March 4th.  A break of this support area would be bearish and should lead to further momentum selling with 89.98 and then 89.66 the next targets. Resistance now at 90.34.

Forex Midday Report - March 17

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Bounce after London Fix/London’s exit for the day

For the second day this week we saw some added volatility in the EURUSD and GBPUSD during the 11-12 time period in NY. The EURUSD sold off and went to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.3722 level (low 1.3726).

The GBPUSD was hit harder falling through support at 1.5394 and falling to test the 61.8% of the days range at 1.5374 (low was 1.5376).  Since then, however, we have seen a rebound back higher with the EURUSD moving toward resistance at 1.3766 (high reached 1.3758 so far) and the GBPUSD back above the 1.5394 level and testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.5310 (see chart below).   Moves above these level may have set the lows for the day (perhaps longer)  but not sure if we have a trend like resumption in the pairs in store.  So expect profit taking to keep things under wraps (1.5332 in…

GBPUSD falls through 1.5294 support level.

The GBPUSD fell through the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5304 and through support at 1.5294. This is a disappointment for the pair/bulls off the better unemployment numbers this morning. London exits for the day at 12:00 noon today. The move may be related to that and the London fix at that time.   Next support at 61.8% of the days range at 1.5274 and the 200 bar MA at the 1.5267 level (green line in the chart above).

EURUSD approaches support at 1.3722

The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.3722. This is key intraday support for the EURUSD.  Look for profit taking buyers against the level

A test of lower support levels for the GBPUSD may be in the cards

The GBPUSD continues to make lower highs and his pounding the support at the 1.5314 level. A break will next target key support at the 1.5294 level.  The low corrective price off the unemployment enduced spike comes in at 1.5296.  The 100 hour bar MA comes ina t 1.5296 currently and the 50% retracement of the move higher today comes in at the 1.5294.  All give traders a level to lean against, with stops on a move below.

Forex Morning Report - March 17

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USDJPY trying to move higher off the BOJ liquidity addition. 90.33 support.

The BOJ added liquidity to the market today in an attempt to keep the engines of the economy going and the USDJPY continued to remain above the 100 day MA at the 90.09 level but the price has not been able to extend above the 90.72 level.  The 100 hour MA is moving sideways at 90.50 and the 200 hour MA is moving up toward the same level at 90.33.  The consolidation may continue but at some point soon, the market may look to make a break. 

Looking at the longer term chart if the price can continue to remain above the 100 day MA at the 90.09 currently, the target would continue to be the 200 day MA at the 91.75 level (green line in the chart below).  Watch the 100 hour and 200 hour MA below today to keep the bullish bias for the short term today (at 90.33 and…

PPI lower than expected, but better Canada data again.

CPI Headline: -0.6% vs -0.2%
Ex Food and Energy +0.1% which was as expected.
YoY 4.4% vs 4.9% expected
YoY Ex Food and Energy a small 1.0% which is as expected.

The Fed is not concerned about inflation. Capacity is still low and this is not the environment for increasing prices on any level.

Meanwhile the Canadian Wholesale Sales rose by a greater than expected 3% vs 0.5% increase (fastest pace in 3 years) .  The level of inventories also declined by 1.1% which brings the inventory to sales ration down to 1.19 frm 1.24.  This also suggests further growth down the road as inventories are replenished.

The USDCAD has support below at 1.0100 area.  A break looks toward 1.0077 and below that the lure of the 1.0000 should take hold.

Rebroadcast of March 16th Online Trading Class

MARCH 16 2010 FXDD Online Training -Click Here to view
Greg Michalowski teaches a strategy session on how to view the Forex market at face value.