CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

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Fed Governer Tarullo Speaks in Washington

Says:

• Capital ‘rules’ foundation for financial oversight
• ‘No one wants another tarp program’
• Mergers of big firms would need to benefit society
• ‘Little evidence’ some firms gain from large size
• Common equity provides ‘best buffer against loss’
• Backs capital charge correlated to cost of firm failing
• Regulators ‘must’ curb risks of big firms failing
• ‘Misplaced assumptions’ behind opposition to rules
• Capital rules may reduce required return on equity
• ‘Daunting task’ framing how to wind down big firms
• Capital rules ‘most dynamic tool’ to limit risk
• U.S. capital rules should align with global rules
• Fed should oppose bank mergers that increase risk

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GBPUSD moves to its resistance area

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EURUSD tests channel resistance/target

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EU/ECB/IMF say next tranche will be made to Greece in July

• They expect economy to stabilize by the end of the year. 
•  Greek govt will create indepently managed privitization agency
• Greece achieved signinficant progress, fiscal structural reforms must be stepped up however
• Greek liquidity remains tight but policies in place to ensure it is adequate for banks

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EU Juncker Greece will set up privitization fund. Greece Papandreou speaking

• He adds that troika conclusion good news for Greece and Europe
• Euro area to approve next aid plan for Greece
• No exit from Eurozone for Greece
• He expects the EZ to extend fresh loans

Greece Papandreou says:

• Review very positive sign
• Still much to be done as the markets are skeptical
• Additonal financial support is being discussed
• Greek program to strengthen growth/employment
• He says that Greece will honor its obligations

Archived in Forex Trading

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CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

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EURUSD momentum pace slows

The momentum to the upside has slowed a bit in the EURUSD after touching a trendline resistance on the 5 minute chart above. The 1.4598 level remains a key level of resistance on the topside from the channel off the hourly chart below.

On the downside now, the 1.4558 level which is a projected channel trendline off the upper trendline (see the 5 minute chart above), is now support. A move below this level is likely indicative of some weekend liquidation.

It is Friday and London/Europe will be looking to make an exit.  The next hour can be tricky and more volatile. Be aware.

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AUDUSD catches a bid

http://video.heraldsun.com.au/1966226452/McCranns-wrap

With the dollar selling against the EURUSD at least, the AUDUSD has had a rebound too.  The move higher is also being helped reportedly by a report from an influential columnist for the Herald Sun named Terry McCrann who said the Australian economy remains in a boom. The GDP fell -1.2% in the 1Q as reported earlier in the week. However, he commented that the decline will come back in the 2nd quarter as the decline is simply because the suppliers of mining material could simply not get the goods out fast enough.  Hence there should be a sharp rebound in 2Q. 

From a technical perspective, the  pair moved above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0676 level and this wlll now be short term support. On the 5 minute chart below the move higher is steep and contained by a channel. A move outside the boundaries will be eyed by intraday traders looking for momentum clues.  However, stay above the 100 hour MA now and the bias remains to the upside.

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EURUSD targets 1.4568 and then 1.4598 area

The EURUSD move abovet the 1.4516-30 resistance area (see prior posts today), opens the door to the next target at the 1.4568 level. This is the 61.8% retracement off the move down from the May high to the low in May.   There is likely to be some resistance against the area.   However, as long as the price remains above the 1.4530 level (and the correction of the high did just that -see 5 minute chart below) the bias is to the upside. 

A move above the 1.4568 level will next target the 1.4598 level which is the channel trendline off the hourly chart above.  This target is to topside “guard rail” that the market has been using to pace the upside move (see hourly chart above), and I would expect the market to respect that level should it be tested later today.

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ISM non Manufacturing a bit better

Comes in at 54.6 from 52.8. The expectation was 54.0.  Employment rose to 54.0 from 51.9.  New Orders increased to 56.8 from 52.7.  The USDJPY moved back higher in reaction. Moving above the 80.28 level. However, it would seem to me, Unemployment weakness threatens the economy more going forward. The confidence  is still fragile and Unemployment going to 9.1%, job growth going the wrong way is a threat to that confidence.

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Greece say EU/IMF/ECB have concluded inspection visit positively

Greece has made moves to show the “will to proceed”.  They add that state asset sales and mid term plan to go to cabinet.

With the weak employment report and a solution to the Greek problem, the focus will shift to the ECB next week.  Any talk of rate rise at any time is more positive for the EURUSD. Oh… I forgot about the US debt issues.

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EURUSD Update: In between support and resistance, but back higher in up/down session

The 1.4454 was support. The resistance was 1.4516-30. The low extended to 1.4450. The high extended to 1.4535.  The market is respecting the ranges so far with the dip buyers and the peak sellers.

The EURUSD is back near the highs and threatens a run above the resistance toward the 1.4569 level (61.8% of the move down from the May high). 

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USDCHF moves toward its next support level as the trend continues

The USDCHF has been true to the trend with the pair continuing its march toward the support on the daily chart at the 0.8314-18 level. This is the trendline of the March and April lows.

On the hourly chart, the parellel trendlines that the market has been using is approaching the underside of a trendline at the 0.8310 level currently. This increases the importance of the area between 0.8310-18. 

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USDJPY tests 38.2% of the spike lower

USDJPY is trying to stay below the 80.28 level.  This is the 38.2% of the spike move lower.  The dollars rebound against the EURO, GBP, CAD has helped.  The level is a dividing line for intraday trading.

The dollar has not gotten hit as hard as traders thought. The EURUSD rose but fell as did the GBPUSD.  The USDCAD is also soaring on the story that the bad for the US is worse for the CAD.  We will see if that move can be sustained. The stock market will keep the volatility in tact for today.

The weaker job report will put into question the Fed and in particular Quantitative easing going forward. The !QE2 is expiring at the end of  this month. The Fed has been expected to stop the QE and that will likely happen. THey will not stop the rollover of the maturing assets in effect keeping the balance sheet bloated. The hope that this would not be sustained for much lower. With this report, the Fed has no choice now. They have made their bed and the numbers do not support any material change in policy.

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