USDJPY hanging around Friday’s closing levels. 93.13 has 200 hour MA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement.

The USDJPY drifted higher in Tokyo trade and has drifted back lower toward unchanged level in London/early NY trade (closed Friday at 93.00).  The move higher did take the pair back above the 200 hour MA for the 1st time since August 26th (at 94.40).   The pair also moved above the 38.2% retracement level at the 93.13 level. 

Currently, the price is back below both levels. In fact, the 200 hour MA is currently at the same level as the 38.2% retracement level (move down from the high of 98.05 from August 24th to the low of 91.94 on September 3rd).   As long as the price can stay below these levels, a wander down toward the 100 hour MA at the 92.73 level is likely.  Also of note is the flattening of the 100 hour MA.  This suggests a more balanced market  - with the potential for a move one way or the other away from the MA.  I would prefer to see the 200 hour MA to converge with the 100 hour (along with the price) as this often is a stronger indication that the market will move. 

Today with the holiday trade, a move of significance is not likely.  SO perhaps the convergence of the 100 and 200 hour MA will take place over the next 24 hours or so.  Be aware.

EURUSD moves above trendline resistance today

In holiday type trading (US is off for Labor Day national holiday), the EURUSD has nevertheless been able to continue it’s move higher from Friday’s afternoon rebound.  The gains have been attributed to an increased demand for “riskier currency pairs”.  German Factory Orders also showed stronger output as they rose by 3.5% MoM after a 4.5% gain in June. It also was the 5th increase in a row.

The pair has moved above the trendline resistance at the 1.4333 level.  This trendline will be eyed for support today.  On the upside, the next hurdle will be the 1.4377 (high from last week) and 1.4386 (trendline off the high from August 5th).

German factory orders

German factory orders m/m came in at 3.5%, stronger than the 2.0% expected. Y/y came in at -19.8%, stronger than the -20.6% expected.

Eur/Usd got initial boost up to 1.4356, but has now paired back to 1.4349.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence

Eurozone investor confidence came in at -14.6%, weaker than the -13.5% expected. Although the number did not beat estimates it was still the highest reading since July 2008. Not much reaction to Eur/Usd, as the pair trades at 1.4348, approximately 15 pips from todays high,

Kiwi makes new high, highest since September 2008

.6895 is a level Nzd/Usd has attempted to break above numerous times in the last week of trading. Within the last hour the pair has made a new high trading at .6925. The last time Kiwi has traded above .6900 was September 26, 2008. This break reconfirms the overall bullishness of Nzd.

9-7 Economic Calendar

Australian ANZ Job Advertisements

Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements for the month of August came in much better than the prior release at 4.1% versus -1.7% in July. This is the first increase for this reading since April 2008. The Aussie had a mild reaction to the release as it trades off yearly highs.

Australian AIG Construction Index

The Australian Industry Group Construction Index came in at 42.4; higher than its prior release of 39.5. The Aussie, currently trading off session highs, showed limited reaction to the release.

September 4th Weekend Forex Report

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EURJPY tests the 200 hour MA resistance level

Today, the EURJPY moved above the channel resistance level and is now testing the 200 hour MA level at the 133.19 level.   A move above the level will next target the 1.3354 level where the 50%  retracement of the move down from the August 24th high to the low comes in.

Sept 04 2009 Forex Midday Report

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Thanks for all your comments and feedback. Look for the Weekend update later today.

EURUSD soars higher in light trading

So much for resistance at the 1.4273 level… (see prior post).  The EURUSD went through the resistance level like a hot knife through butter.  The pair continues to have upside resistance against the trendline at the 1.4340 level.   The high reached 1.4327.  The old high for the day at 1.4289 is now support (1.4285 is the 200 hour moving average - green line), but no promises in this market.

As London exits for the weekend, the EURUSD rallies back higher toward resistance

The dollar has started to sell off in the last hour or so as London and Europe exit for the weekend.

The EURUSD has risen back up toward the 100 hour MA at the 1.4273 level. This is off the low for the day down at the 1.4191 level - just above the key 1.4183 price (midpoint of the move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low). I would expect that in this up down type market, this level should find the sellers against the level. 

Going forward I would expect the market action to slow down as NY traders exit early for the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.   Be aware.