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UK Sales Improve, Housing Declines

UK’s February Total Retail Sales indicator rose 4.5% from the prior year, with same store sales rising 2.2%. The UK RICS House Prices however showed a decline to 17% from the prior reading of 32% and the expectation of 30%. The GBP/USD pair had a limited reaction, moving initially off session lows on the better sales figure, before returning to pre-release levels. Looking at Cable we see the pair has run into some resistance at the 100 hr moving average and 38.2% retracement yesterday on the latest move from late February highs to early March lows.

Forex Evening Report - March 8

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USDJPY in a quiet range as the market consolidates the sharp two day gains.

The USDJPY has been in a quiet range in the NY session. The low in the NY session has gone down to 90.21. The high has reached 90.48.  The price is trading in between the two extremes at the 90.35.  This is also where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  The close on Friday was 90.33.  The price is at it’s equilibrium level.

The consolidation is not all surprising. On Friday the price moved from a low of 88.97 to the high today at 90.67.    The low on Thursday was down at 88.12.  The 257 pip surge higher from low to high was completed in 2 days of trading.  That move higher retraced around 61.8% of the last trend down from the high of 92.14 on Feb 19th to the low on March 4th which took two weeks to complete.  That level comes in at 90.60. The high today…

Forex Midday Report - March 8

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BOE Kate Barker on the newswires.

Says UK Economy is still looking fragile.  Inflation uncomfortably high for short term but likely to come down and move below target of 2%. She says there is no cause for anxiety on the downside CPI expectation.  She notes that the economies response to lower pound is disappointing, but says export orders are improving. Finally she says there is grounds for some optimism that the economy is on track.

Overall, she is speaking from both sides of her mouth it seems.

FXDD Online Trading Class TODAY 4pm

FXDD Online Trading Class TODAY with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell at 4pm - Register Here

AUDUSD looking to test key 100 day MA support

The AUDUSD 100 day MA comes in at the 0.9068 level. The price closed above the level on Friday and moved higher in early trade today. However, the price has started to move back lower on the back of the stronger dollar/selling of the risk pairs.  The price has moved down to a low of 0.9092. This corresponds to the high price from Friday and may slow the decline.  A break, however, will likely look toward the 0.9068 key support level.   Patient buyers will likely wait for a further dip toward the key level with a tight stop on a break below.

Greeks Papandreou on the newswires. Reminds everyone of the Greece hardships

Says

Papandeou comments on the newswires has sent the EURUSD back down after failing to extend above the key 1.3691 level.  He has said that, Europe must understand Greek reforms need time.  Adds, not asking Europe to rush to aid of reckless countries but adds that Europe must  help Greek take longer view as budget cuts won’t lead to sustained growth.  He warns that deflation risk for Greece if productivity and job creation is not initiated.

The comments have sent the EURUSD back lower as concerns about growth/deflation problems start to weigh back on the currency. The price has moved below the 1.3654 level. This level will be watched as resistance now. A break of the 1.3638 level (38.2% of the 2 day range) and 1.3632 (100 hour MA support)  are the next level to get through.  Below that 1.3617.

From one intraday extreme to another.

GBPUSD looks to test 100 hour MA support at 1.5065

The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.5065. Look for profit taking/dip buyers against the level.

Topside resistance now comes in at the 1.5092 level and above that at 1.5105. The 1.5092 is the midpoint of the 2 day trading range.  The 1.5105 is the low corrective area from Friday’s trade (see chart below ). 

A break of 1.5065 will look toward 1.5020, the low before Friday’s surge higher (post NFP).

Forex Morning Report - March 8

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EURUSD makes the break to the upside and looks to test 1.3691

The EURUSD has made a break to the upside, moving above the converged 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart and extended toward the 1.3691 level. This level was the high from February 23rd and was an area of resistance in early trade today.  We should see some selling against the level. However a break will look to target the high for the day at the 1.3704 level. ABove that is the high from last week at the 1.3735.

On the downside, look for support against the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3665 level and the 1.3654.  A move back below these levels muddies the upside/bullish trading momentum for the intraday.

GBPUSD contained in early NY trading

The GBPUSD has been in a fairly narrow trading range during the NY session. The price remains below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5155 level.  In the early NY session the price moved up to test these two moving averages but fell short. 

The 1.5138 level is also a key level to watch today. This is the 200 hour MA (green line in the hourly chart).  If the price can remain above this level a further momentum move could be in store for the day.  As a reminder, on the topside remains the gap from the Feb 26th to March 1st weekend gap.   The gap is between the 1.5202-1.5236 level.  The high today reached 1.5194.  If the market is able to keep the bullish bias (i.e. above 100 and 200 bar MA levels in above the 200 hour MA), this would be a…

EURUSD trading around the 1.3654 level

The EURUSD moved up to test the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart in early NY trading at the 1.3666 level.  The price has also the 1.3654 level to contend with on the downside as NY early trade is stymied.  The 1.3654 level has been a level of support and resistance on the hourly chart over the last 3 week consolidation period (see the chart below).  A move below should solicit some selling interest with the 1.3638 being the next support level (38.2% of the move up from Friday’s low). Below that level is 1.3617 (see chart above).

Canada Housing Starts better than expected at 196.7

The expectations was 190.0K.  The USDCAD has dipped below the floor at 1.0259 but not by much.   Watch the level. A bounce back above the floor support may solicit some modest short covering for the pair but a move above the converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (Blue and Green lines in the chart above) will be needed to solicit any potential for further upside momentum for the pair (see chart above).