CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM
CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM
On the wires: National Bureau of Economic Research
US National Bureau of Economic Research cited “Way too early” to call the end of recession in the US, although there are signs of stabilization. Notes it will wait “a long time” before declaring the recession over, unclear whether the economy is pausing in a longer term decline.
On the wires: Vice President Biden on More stimulus
US VP Biden: Administration will announce plans on Monday to help increase economic stimulus for the summer. Biden says 3,600 stimulus projects are now underway around the country. Says there are encouraging signs in the economy but there is a “long way to go.”
On the wires: US Labor secretary rumor of job data error is false
US Labor secretary: rumor of job data error is false. Reminder earlier in the session rumors circulated that the Non farm payrolls numbers calculation was off by 100K
On the wires: ECB’s Stark Difficult to determine the global economy
European Central Bank’s Stark cited “Difficult to determine the global economy following the economic crisis.”
On the wires: Rumors fly about Non farm numbers being miscalculated
On the wires: Hearing rumor now circulating Payroll data may have been miscalculated on the order of 100K jobs
CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM
CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM
EUR/USD Testing 200 Hour MA
EUR/USD is testing/breaking the 200 Hour moving average. Heavy volatility today, trade accordingly. Near term support will be found at the 1.4000 level. The longer term fibonacci retracement level comes in near 1.3740.
On the wires: PIMCO’s Bill Gross Expects unemployment numbers to peak in Nov
On the wires: PIMCO’s Bill Gross Expects unemployment numbers to peak in Nov or Dec, doesn’t expect Fed to raise rates any time soon. Reiterates that monthly job growth of 200K is needed to keep unemployment stable with new workers entering the workforce. Believes things are worse than the government’s “more adverse” scenario for unemployment used in the stress tests. When asked whether stocks are expensive, answers “they’re getting there.” Believes equity markets are close to hitting a “steady level” moving forward.
Market News: Fed’s may increase target rate by years end.
December Fed Fund futures pricing in greater than 50% chance of 25bps hike to Fed funds target rate by year end
US NON FARM PAYROLLS BETTER THAN EXPECTED
May Non farm Payrolls -345k (last -539K), US Unemployment Rate 9.4% (last 8.9%), Manufacturing Payrolls -156k (last -149K) Equities markets surging.
USD/CAD testing 200 Hour Moving Average
USD/CAD testing 200 Hour Moving Average and above this, the Fibonacci 50% level from the long term Weekly chart is looming near 1.1070. Watch for accelerated activity as the US data is about to be released at 8:30am. NOTE: Additional US weakness may drive this pair lower causing the CAD to gain strength. 100 day MA comes in at 1.0944 and will likely be tested. Watch for high volatility. Below this 1.0855 comes into play as longer term support.
US Employment Data due out at 8:30am
Expected out at 8:30am are May Non farm Payrolls (last -539K), US Unemployment Rate (last 8.9%), Manufacturing Payrolls (last -149K), and Average Hourly Earnings. The US needs to see some better numbers to signal a slowing in the current recession. The May employment report is expected to show a reduction of another -520,000k non-farm payrolls last month. Estimates range from -450k to -600k. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.2% percent vs 8.9% current.
Canadian Employment Data Released
The CAD Employment Change came out worse than expected at -41.8K from the previous 35.9K. A drop to -36.4K was forecast today.
The CAD Employment Rate rose to 8.4% (highest in 11 years) from the previous 8.0% (a high since 9/1998). A rise to 8.2% was forecast.
The CAD softened up following these poor employment numbers.
EUROZONE’s Almunia on the Wires
EU’s Almunia: Central and Eastern Europe face funding challenges ahead
- Euro currency is a major asset and provides an anchor of stability
- EMU protects its members from speculative currency attacks
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- Greg Michalowski on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- Greg Michalowski on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- Jan SFO
- Wall Street Journal 1-31-12
- CNNMoney 1-30-12
- Reuters 1-24-12
- CNNMoney_Stocks to get boost from China
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Forex Trading
- Euro lower after Greek labor unions call a 48 hour strike for Friday and Saturday against EU/IMF austerity measures.
- UK Industrial Production (Dec) 0.5% vs. 0.2% expected (-0.7% prior).
- UK Visible Trade Balance -7111 mln vs. -8600 mln expected.
- UK Manufacturing Production (Dec) 1.0% vs. 0.2% expected.
- Equities higher, Euro following
Forex News
- China’s January CPI & PPI
- China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3009
- Bank of Korea Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged @3.25%
- New Zealand Q4 Employment Report
- South Korean Producer Price Index
Economic Statistics
- China’s January CPI & PPI
- China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3009
- Bank of Korea Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged @3.25%
- South Korean Producer Price Index
- Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM
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