CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM
CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM
GBPUSD rebounds off lows. Looks for the next direction now
The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today continuing the trend from Friday.
From a technical perspective, the pair reached the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level from the last consolidative low on April 22nd low (1.4396) to the recent high (1.6661). The level comes in at the 1.5796. The low today was 1.5801. This gave the pair a reason to rally.
The price broke through the 100 bar moving average (blue line in chart above) onthe 5 minute chart and moved to test the 200 bar (green line in chart above). The price is now consolidating, using the 200 bar as the intraday pivot area. If the price remains above the 200 bar MA, the bias should to the upside with a move through the high needed to lead to further corrective gains (toward 1.5980 initial resistance target- see chart below).
On the downside a break below the 200 bar on 5 minute should target the 100 bar MA on the same chart (currently at the 1.5874 level blue line in 5 minute chart above), with a break below this level the lows for the day will provide tough sledding as the key support at the 38.2% remains a challenge.
EURUSD continues move lower today on Ireland downgrade.
S&P lowered the sovereign debt rating of Ireland for the 2nd time in 2 months. They also warned that it may be downgraded further in the future as banking bailout costs were likely to increase. The rating was cut to AA from AA+.
The news has put pressure on the EURO as focus shifts from the dollar back to the weakness overseas. This shift can happen on a dime as economic issues have the potential to be dire around the globe. If the market is focused on the US issues the dollar is likely to suffer. If sentiment is diverted to the EURO region or the UK (which is experiencing its own shift in political and economic fortunes) those currencies have the potential to suffer.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD continued the consolidation/correction in early trading today. When the market price approached the 200 bar moving average at the 1.4000 area (high was 1.3996), the market resumed the downside again – falling through the 100 bar MA in the process at the 1.3972 level. The low reached was 1.3805. Profit taking buyers most likely emerged against stops below the May 28th low of 97.92.
The pair is now back off the lows approaching intraday resistance at the 1.3895 level. This level should provide some resistance. Watch this level this morning.
Bobys Corner-Open Market-6.8.2009
Good Morning:
I am back from the west coast-after a week of business, which included the Traders Expo in Pasadena, CA. The Expo was well attended, and the participants were excited about new product offerings that were on display.
The USD traded higher-as speculation that the FED will raise interest rates by the end of 2009-as the US economy recovers. The Euro lost ground as S&P downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt again.
US futures are lower this morning-as are the European equities. Asian markets were mixed.
Oil:$67.65 Gold:$951.50
No major data today.
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
USDJPY consolidates after Fridays sharp gains higher
The USDJPY is consolidating after Fridays sharp gains higher.
On the topside is good Fibonacci resistance at the 50% retracement calculated from the 2008 high of 110.65 (reached on to the August 15th) to the 2009 low at 87.11 (reached on January 21st, 2009).
The midpoint of that range comes in at 98.88. The high on Friday reached exactly 98.88. Todays high reached 98.85. Clearly there is resistance at the level. A break above this level will be needed to push to higher levels for the pair (with a test of the 100.00 the obvious target) . I would expect that with two tests of the levels on Friday and today, that intraday traders would use the level to sell against with stops above.
On an intraday basis, the price is currently consolidating around the 100 and 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart. Those moving averages come in at the 98.48 and 98.52 levels. The moving averages are flattening out and this indicates the market is likely to non-trend for the time being to. The downside has the low today at 98.20 as initial target support. Below that level is the 98.04 level. This support area (between 98.04 and 98.20 correspond with “remembered prices” from Fridays trade (see chart below).
If the price can stay below the 100 and 200 bar MA on this chart, the test of this support area would be favored. If the price moves above the shorter term MA the likely move would be another test of the highs. Given the sharp move higher on Friday and the slow start today, however, momentum to either side is expected to be cautious.
Thanks to all who visited FXDD during the LA trade show
It was a pleasure speaking with you all at the LA Trade show over the weekend. If you have any questions or comments directly to me, please feel free to email me at greg@fxdd.com.
Thanks again,
Greg Michalowski
CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM
CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM
German Factory Orders Released
German Factory Orders came out at as expected at 0.0% from the previously revised 3.7%.
EURUSD Falls to Further Session Lows Behind Ireland Rating Cut
EUROZONE Sentix Investor Confidence Released
EU’s Sentix Investor Confidence came out better than expected at -27.0 from the previous -34.3. A rise to -30.8 was forecast today.
Swiss Unemployment Rate Released
The CHF Unemployment Rate came out better than expected at 3.5% from the previous 3.4%. A rise to 3.6% was forecast.
Economy Watchers Sentiment
Japna May Eco Watchers Survey came in at 36.7, better than the 34.0 that was expected. This is the highest number since March 2008.
Japan’s Former Economic Minister Ota Comments
Japan’s former Econ Min Ota: Japan will have a W-shaped recovery; Economy to grow this year but then decline, remaining “very weak” next year
Economic Calendar (6/8/2009)
Monday, June 8, 2009
USD/JPY A Couple of Perspectives
Looking at a longer-term USD/JPY chart from the August ’08 highs to the January ’09 lows we see the trendline resistance and 50% retracement level collaborate to act as resistance on the pairs appreciation during the NY Friday on a better than expected Non-Farm Payroll report although the unemployment rate was worse than expected.
On the shorter term USD/JPY retracement analysis from the January lows to the recent early April highs, we see the double top and bottom we have been watching and perhaps a new support level at the 200 day moving average broken on the Friday payroll report. A pull back toward the 200 day mavg could present an opportunity if the level holds on a pull back.
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- Greg Michalowski on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- Greg Michalowski on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
- kenny on EURUSD tests 200 hour MA. Look for support against level
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