CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

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RICS House Price Balance

The UK’s RICS House Price Balance release expected at -52%, beat expectations coming in at -44.1%, also better than the prior meeting of -59.9%, (which was revised up to -58.7%.) The Sterling and Euro both traded slightly higher against the USD to create early session highs on the release. The UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor reading came in worse than the prior month at -0.8% versus the prior reading of 4.6%, the total sales figures were also weaker.

Archived in Economic Statistics, Forex News

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Forex Market Update for June 8 2009 Afternoon edition

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Archived in Video

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FXDD Today and Tomorrow: A recap of today and preview of tomorrow June 9th

FXDD Today and Tomorrow is now available for download.  The concise one day report, gives a snap shot of the market near the close of trading.  It also gives a picture of the trend of the major economic releases due out over the next 24 hours.  To access the report click on the following link:

  FXDD Today and Tomorrow Download (62.0 KiB, 941 hits)
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Greg Michalowski

Trading forex is risky and should only be done with risk capital that will not change your lifestyle. Traders could lose all of their risk capital trading forex. FXDD does not guarantee any recommendation made within this commentary. Traders should make market assessments and take trading positions based on their own personal market analysis, risk tolerance and financial condition. In addition, care should be made to only use leverage which is congruent with your personal risk tolerance. Although care was taken in creating this report, FXDD does not guarantee the accuracy of the information

Archived in FXDD Today

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Stock move higher helps Yen Carry Trades

The Yen carry trades are being helped in late NY trade as  the stock market improves. The EURJPY has moved above its intraday sideways range and in the process broke through the 100 hour MA at the 136.83. 

Watch this level (136.83) to provide support now.  If the corrective support can hold, I would expect further upside momentum in the pair.

The GBPJPY has also moved to new highs for the day. The pair now has to get through the highs from Thursday and Friday at the 158.47  and 158.56 levels to extend further to the upside. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 157.07.  Note how the 200 hour moving average was able to bounce back higher after dipping below the key MA.  This shows good buyers against the level on dips.

Archived in Forex Trading

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Non Trending leads to trending

USDJPY is non-trending.  The longer it non-trends, the greater the chance for a trend as non-trending markets transition into trending markets.   

The USDJPY moved back higher above the 100 and 200 bar MA may continue to waffle above and below, but with the trigger MAs at the same level, the risk is minimal.  The potential reward is a trend in the direction of the bias.  The bias is now positive.   The market can continue to do laps up and down but be patient.

Archived in Forex Trading

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CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

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USDJPY continues its consolidation phase.

No trending/consolidation continues in the USDJPY with the shorter term chart remaining the focus for buy/sell bias (hourly chart signals are still catching up after Fridays sharp runup).

The price moved higher above the 100 and 200 bar moving averages (both at 98.48 level), tested the London high and backed back below the MAs.  Now the pair has moved down and is taking a look at the low area for the day.   The 98.05 to 98.17 level remains support area for the pair (see earlier post from this morning). 

Intraday bias is down (below MAs at 98.48) but trading is lightish an so are ranges. Still looking for the break in the direction of the bias to confirm the direction.

Archived in Forex Trading

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GBPUSD moves through the resistance area

The GBPUSD has just broken through the resistance area from the consolidation area on Friday.  That area was topped at the 1.6036 level.  Initial the market tested by has since moved above the level on continued buying.  The upside can move up to the 38.2% retracement area at 1.6130 area.  A break back below the 1.6017 level would not be welcomed.

Archived in Forex Trading

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ECB Weber on the newswires

•  CRISIS LIKELY TO WEIGH ON FIN MKTS FOR SOME TIME
•  ECONOMY MAY BE VERY SLOW TO RECOVER FROM CRISIS
• ECB WILL COUNTER POTENTIAL PRICE STABILITY RISKS
• ECB TO ABSORB EXTRA LIQUIDITY ONCE ECONOMY IMPROVES
• ECB CAN EASILY EXIT FROM AMPLE LIQUIDITY POLICY

His comments led to a move higher in the EURUSD but overall they are somewhat factual rather than trade worthy.  Market technicals still eyed.

Archived in Forex News

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EURUSD tests 200 bar MA and falls off on the initial test

The EURUSD did break/squeeze  through the resistance area the 1.3890 area and moved higher to 1.3810.  Unfortunately, up there loomed the 200 bar moving average which has contained the topside for the day (see green line in the chart above).

The level remains a sell by bottom fishers who purchased lower.  A break above should target higher levels, however.  Above has resistance at 1.3926.  Fridays close was 1.3963.  This is the most likely target on a break higher. Downside continues to have the 100 bar as support (blue line in the chart above).

Archived in Forex Trading

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EURUSD probes higher, but with hesitation

Longs seem nervous as banking worries and downgrades keep the pair pressured.  The last hour has seen the pair test the shorter term 100 bar MA (currently at 1.3861) and the last highs at the 1.3890 level. This level (1.3890) area remains as an intraday hurdle still with further resistance at 1.3917 (200 bar MA which has contained the topside moves today – green line in chart above).

The downside will be confirmed on another break of the 1.3861 level. 

Overall, activity remains consolidative with orders dictating the ebbs and flows. Pay attention to the levels from the moving averages and consolidation areas, but not expecting much honestly.

Archived in Forex Trading

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Forex Market Update for June 8th 2009 – EUR, GBP, JPY review

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Forex Market Update for June 8th 2009 – EUR, GBP, JPY pairs reviewed in detail. Congratulations to Greg for a great presentation in Los Angeles. If you were at the event, we would love to hear from you. Email your feeback.

Archived in Video

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GBPUSD has shot higher. Approaches 1st target resistance.

The GBPUSD has shot higher and approached the 1st target level for the pair at the 1.5980 level.  The high reached 1.5977. 

As discussed in a prior post, the GBPUSD above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart gave a positive bias for the pair. 

A break above the 1.5980 level would target the 1.6030 area where consolidation on Friday occurred (see chart below – green shaded area).  The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high at 1.6661 to the low today cannot be ruled out. This level comes in at the 1.6128 area (see chart below).  The  level is nearer the 100 and 200 hour moving averages which are both starting to turn lower. 

Archived in Forex Trading

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GBPUSD rebounds off lows. Looks for the next direction now

The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today continuing the trend from Friday. 

From a technical perspective, the pair reached the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level from the last consolidative low on April 22nd low (1.4396) to the recent high (1.6661).  The level comes in at the 1.5796. The low today was 1.5801.  This gave the pair a reason to rally.

The price broke through the 100 bar moving average (blue line in chart above) onthe 5 minute chart and moved to test the 200 bar (green line in chart above).  The price is now consolidating, using the 200 bar as the intraday pivot area.  If the price remains above the 200 bar MA, the bias should to the upside with a move through the high needed to lead to further corrective gains (toward 1.5980 initial resistance target- see chart below).

On the downside a break below the 200 bar on 5 minute should target the 100 bar MA on the same chart (currently at the 1.5874 level blue line in 5 minute chart above), with a break below this level the lows for the day will provide tough sledding as the key support at the 38.2% remains a challenge.

Archived in Forex Trading

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