CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

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USDCHF tests 100 hour MA and bounces on profit taking bids.

We have not looked at the USDCHF in a while but the 100 hour moving average has just been tested at the 1.0793.  The low reached 1.0795.  The rebound off the moving average took the pair up to the 1.0827.  The modest increase off the key support has a test of the target in its sites once again. 

Also near the level is the 50% of the move higher from the June 2nd low of 1.0590 to the high on June 5th at 1.0985.  That level comes in at 1.0787.  As is always the decision tree, buyers should emerge against the key levels with a break likely to pressure the pair further (toward the 200 hour MA at the 1.0753 level. 

On the upside a move above the 1.0834 would be a positive development for the pair.

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EURUSD runs out of steam at the 100 hour MA and moves toward support.

As per the previous post (CLICK HERE TO SEE THE REPORT), the EURUSD moved up to the 100 hour moving average, and fell from there.  The 100 hour moving average came in at 1.4050.  The high was 1.4051.  

On the downside, the price is now testing the 38.2% retraceement level that helped the momentum to the upside.  That level came in at 1.4009.  A momentum move below this level should lead to further downward pressure toward the 1.3970 level.

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USDJPY running out of steam

USDJPY has topped out at the 97.65 level and started to move back down.   The market is just randomly moving but last three bars on 5 minute has been lower -with a 4th down bar if the price can close below 97.53.  The 100 hour moving average is currently up to the 97.37 level.  Earlier today the price tested the level and bounced. 

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EURUSD moves higher and closer to target resistance

As per the morning commentary, the EURUSD has continued higher to test the 100 hour MA  (see prior post by clicking here).

The 100 hour moving average resistance currently comes in at the 1.4050 level currently.  The high has been 1.4043.  Like the GBPUSD, the 100 hour, 50% retracement and 200 hour moving average provide a resistance area.

The 50% retracemnt level of the move down from the high at 1.4338, comes in at the 1.4072 level, while the 200 hour MA comes in at 1.4089.

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GPBUSD continues its move higher

The GBPUSD has been able to move through the 50 % retracement at the 1.6230 and moved up to a high of 1.6288. The market has stalled at the highs with a period of up and down bars on the 5  minute chart providng the clue.  A break back below the the 1.6230 would be needed to tarnish the bullish bias a bit. 

If the momentum can be maintained the next level to target for the longs is the  the 1.6320 to 1.6330 level.  The 61.8% retracement of the move lower is at the level.  There is also consolidated highs that occurred at the area.   I expect more resistance against these levels.

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CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

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US Treasury Secretary Geithners Comments on newswires

• IMPORTANT TO START PPIP EVEN WITH LOWER PARTICIPATION
•  BANKS FOUND IT EASIER TO RAISE CAPITAL ON OWN
•  THERE’S SOME CONCERN ABOUT PPIP PARTICIPATION
• U.S. NEEDS CAPACITY TO MANAGE FAILURE OF LARGE FIRM
• GOVT ACTIONS HAVE CREATED RISK OF MORAL HAZARD
• U.S. GOVT SHOULDN’T EXERCISE JUDGMENTS ON COMPANIES
• GOVT VOTING RIGHTS USED ONLY IN LIMITED CASES
•  GOVERNMENT IS AN EXTREMELY RELUCTANT INVESTOR
• EXECUTIVE PAY NEEDS TO BETTER REFLECT RISK
• EXECUTIVE PAY PLANS NEED SUBSTANTIAL REFORMS
• WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO TO WORK THROUGH CRISIS
• VERY IMPRESSIVE SIGNS OF CREDIT MKT IMPROVEMENT
• WE HAVE A WAYS TO GO TO WORK THROUGH CRISIS
• VERY IMPRESSIVE SIGNS OF CREDIT MKT IMPROVEMENT
• TARP CAPITAL PROGRAM WAS FIRST STEP IN RECOVERY
• U.S. GOING THROUGH DEEP, WRENCHING RECESSION
• HOMEOWNERS STILL FACE DIFFICULT MARKET AHEAD
• PACE OF HOUSE PRICE DECLINE HAS STARTED TO SLOW
• MAY TAKE LONGER TO JUDGE MORTGAGE PLAN’S RESULTS
• EXPECTS TO SEE MORTGAGE MODIFICATIONS ACCELERATE
• U.S. GOVT WAS LATE ADDRESSING FINANCIAL CRISIS

The comments are as per prior comments and not market influencing.

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Commodities move higher and the rise helps the AUDUSD

The AUDUSD has been pushed higher today on higher commodity prices.  The Australia economy relies on the export of industrial commodites to the likes of China and India.  Increases in demand prices often has a direct positive effect on the value of the AUDUSD;.

The price is currently testing a key resistance area.  The 100 hour moving average, 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement of the most recent move lower are all in the current area. 

The 100 hour moving average comes in at 0.7973.  The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high of  0.8262 to the low of 0.7826 comes in at the 0.7992.  The 200 hour moving average comes in at the 0.8005. The high reached has been 0.7995. 

Intraday sellers should use the area as a place to take profit or initiate shorts.  A move above the range should, however, lead to increased momentum to the upside.  Commodity prices will of course be an influence.

Note after the last central bank decision, it was noted that a high AUD could threaten the recovery.  A higher AUD makes exports more expensive and therefore could choke off exports.  Although, the technicals are most important and higher commodities also are the major influences, on the currency in the short term, it may be a concern should the central bank officials intensify their comments.

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Forex Market Update for June 9th 2009

Please enable Javascript and Flash to view this Viddler video.

Special thanks to all of our new viewers. Don’t be shy, leave us feedback here in the commentary pages and also by email. We would love to hear from you and also to get your ideas and suggestions as to how we can further tailor the show to your needs. We try to offer an institutional snapshot into the Forex market, by showing what the big traders are looking at, while keeping it in plain english. Our next report comes out at 5pm. Have a great day trading! Greg and Shawn

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USDJPY tests 100 hour moving average and bounces

As per previous post (CLICK HERE), the USDJPY is testing the 100 hour moving average at the 97.34 level (low price 97.39).  A break has further support at the  97.20 level.

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GBPUSD benefits most today but runs into its own resistance now

The GBPUSD has benefitted again today but is currently testing the resistance at the 50% retracement level.   The level comes in at 1.6231.  The high reached 1.6248 on stop buying but has reversed back lower when upward momentum could not be maintained.   The market seems to be tiring but waiting to see if a new push can be made.  If done a new leg up should be made.

The move higher today, has seen the price move through the both the 100 hour moving average and the 200 hour moving average.  The 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) caused some resistance initially, but was able to final gain a momentum higher. Those levels currently come in at the 1.6118 and 1.6197 level respectively.  They will be eyed as support going forward today.  As long as the price can remain above, the bias remains to the upside.

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EURUSD looks to test 100 hour moving average. Fibonacci Retracement also a focus

The EURUSD has some resistance at the current area where the 38.2% retracement of the recent move lower is looming .  The level comes in at the 1.4008 level.  The market squeezed above this level but is currently back at the level suggesting some reluctance – at least temporarily. 

Above is key resistance at the 100 hour moving average at the 1.4058.  The 50% of the move lower over the last week is also above. That price comes in at the 1.4072 level.   The market is currently at a crossroad. A correction lower should not breach support at the 1.3950-64 (blue line and 38.2% retracement of the days range defines that aree).  I would expect buyers to enter against this level today. 

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USDJPY moves lower. Looks toward the 100 hour MA

The USDJPY has moved to new lows in early NY trade.  The consolidation over the last day and a half and the lower move overnight/this morning, has allowed the 100 hour moving average to come back in focus. 

The 100 hour moving average is at the 97.31 level and this is the target for the market today.  The expectation is for the level to attract the intraday buyers who have sold the market higher.  I would expect if the price can be breached, that stops will be triggered.

On the shorter term basis, the market finally moved lower last night, but had a choppy time of it.  The price initially broke lower at the 98.45 level after a long consolidation period yesterday around the 100 and 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart (see red shaded area in the 5 minute chart above).  

The initial move lower was able to move the price below the key level at the 98.04 – 06 level.  However, the move could only move to 97.92 low initially.  This led to a correction back higher toward the 98.45 area – where the market started its break and traded a whole lot yesterday.  Sellers came in and moved the market to the new lows from there. 

For the market to gain further downward momentum today, being able to stay below the 97.92 level will be needed.  Above that is the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart currently at the  98.12 level (and moving lower).    A move back above the 100 bar MA would not be welcome for the bears. Until then, the bias is for a test of the 100 hour MA at the 97.31 level.

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El Erian comments send dollar lower

He thinks it is critical that the government/Treasure has a plan to become fiscally responsible at some point. If not the dollar will suffer. Bonds yields will suffer and this in turn will threaten the recovery.

Of course, there is not a plan and this has the markets on edge. The dollar has started to weaken on the concerns and comments.

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