CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

Written February 8, 2012 at 4:10 PM EST by  

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

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Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation

Written June 10, 2009 at 9:02 PM EST by  

Ahead of the May Australian Employment Report, the June Consumer Inflation Expectation beat last months number at 2.8%, versus the May reading of 2.3%. The market moved Aussie marginally higher to session highs on the release.

AUD/JPY Hits 50% and Waits (Click for Chart)

Written June 10, 2009 at 8:55 PM EST by  

The AUD/JPY pair is once again at the 50% retracement level of the move from all the time highs last summer to this Januarys lows. The level has proven to be strong resistance as it has been tested since last week but not penetrated and the pair seems to be consolidating after it appreciates and creates new support levels for itself. A break of this level would seem bullish for the pair as it has consolidated here again around the 50% level and could be headed higher. Helping the cross are the fundamentals, first rising commodity prices, stronger economic readings and higher rates have helped the AUD move higher against the USD. The second side of the picture has the USD gaining some strength against the Yen, with the equity markets lacking sellers and the short-term rate scenario in the US moving significantly higher since the employment report last Friday. From a lagging indicator perspective we also have the 100 day moving average about to cross above the 200 day. All signs are pointing north for the pair.

audjpy2

Japan’s Final Q1 GDP Figures

Written June 10, 2009 at 7:54 PM EST by  

A better than expected final GDP releases for the 1st quarter out of Japan, has led to very little market reaction, the releases were as follows:

GDP Annualized – Survey:-15%   Actual:-14.2%   Prior:-15.2%

Nominal GDP (QoQ) – Survey:-2.9%   Actual:-2.7%   Prior:-2.9%

GDP Deflator (YoY) – Survey:1.1%   Actual:0.9%   Prior:1.1%

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AUD/NZD Hit on New Zealand Rate Decision

Written June 10, 2009 at 7:47 PM EST by  

Although the RBNZ left rates unchanged at a 2.50% cash rate, which was what the majority of the market expected, there was apparently enough money short the Bird awaiting perhaps a rate cut, that the move north on the NZD led to a cover and in turn severely hit the AUD/NZD pair to tune of a figure and a half and counting. That being said the there is a good deal of support right below the lows on AUD/NZD, namely the 50% retracement (5/19 high > 6/1 low) and 200 hr moving average which have converged. We will watch these levels for support as we await the volatile Australian employment report due out later this session.

audnzd

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Written June 10, 2009 at 5:08 PM EST by  

The RBNZ Official Rate Cash Rate decision expected at 2.5% came in as expected. Governor Bollard added the following comments:

  • Low rates and fiscal stimulus are supporting the New Zealand economy.
  • NZD gains may slow the recovery, but he expects it value to decline.
  • There are signs the finance conditions are improving.
  • There is room for further reductions in short-term rates.
  • Economy to start growing toward the end of the year.
  • Recovery likely to be slow and fragile.
  • Unemployment forecast to continue deteriorating.
  • Expects inflation to return to target in early 2010.
  • Rates could move modestly lower in the coming quarters.
  • The remains a risk to activity and a risk of deflation.
  • Expects rates unchanged until late in 2010.
  • Stronger currency risks delaying export recovery.
  • Soft outlook for employment, wages and farm incomes.

CompassFX Webinar with Greg Michalowski Thursday 4:00PM

Written February 8, 2012 at 4:10 PM EST by  

CompassFX is having a special webinar with Greg Michalowski this Thursday 4:00PM

Archived in Forex Trading

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision due at 5:00 PM

Written June 10, 2009 at 4:44 PM EST by  

gregmike-03637

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision will be due at 5:00 PM.  The concensus calls for no change. However, do not be surprised if they address the high value of the NZD dollar in their comments.  

The NZDUSD is going into the release with the price more or less at the 100 hour moving average (at 0.6272 – blue line in the chart above).  A move lower will likely solicit additional sellers toward the lows of Monday at 0.6150.  A move higher will likely look to first test the 200 hour moving average at the 0.6356 (green line in the charte above).  A break above this level will confirm the upward momentum. 

gregmike-03636

Longer term, a break below Mondays lows, will start to target the 0.5948 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move higher from the February 2008 low (see daily chart above). However, the price will first need to get through the 0.6089 to 0.6126 support area which has old highs and old lows from the last leg higher in the pair. (see red shaded area)

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Forex Market update for June 10 2009 Afternoon Edition

Written June 10, 2009 at 4:37 PM EST by  

Please enable Javascript and Flash to view this Viddler video.

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GBPUSD bounces off support area

Written June 10, 2009 at 2:49 PM EST by  

gregmike-03635

GBPUSD has bounced off the 200 hour MA, reaching a low of 1.6239 with the 200 hour MA at 1.6248.   The price below the 200 hour MA was brief, only lasting for a few minutes. This gave the shorts ample reason to cover- as did the Beige Book which was not all that encouraging.   The failure to break this level at 1.6248 and extend and remain lower, is bullish for the pair.  Dips now will likely be bought unless the price can move back below the level.

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Feds Beige Book says economy remains weak or deteriorating

Written June 10, 2009 at 2:17 PM EST by  

  •  SEVERAL DISTRICTS REPORTED JOB LOSSES MAY BE MODERATING
  • RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET REMAINED WEAK
  • NEW AUTO SALES REMAINED DEPRESSED IN MOST DISTRICTS
  •  PRICES AT ALL STAGES OF PRODUCTION WERE FLAT OR FALLING
  • LABOR MARKET WAS WEAK, WITH WAGES FLAT OR FALLING
  • CREDIT CONDITIONS WERE STRINGENT OR TIGHTER
  •  COMMERCIAL PROPERTY VACANCIES ROSE IN MANY PARTS OF U.S.
  •  TIGHT CREDIT CONDITIONS WERE HAMPERING AUTO SALES
  • CONSUMER SPENDING REMAINED SOFT
  • SEVERAL DISTRICTS SAY MANUFACTURERS’ OUTLOOK IMPROVED
  • MOST DISTRICTS REPORT LOW OR DECLINING MANUFACTURING
  • SEVERAL DISTRICTS REPORTED IMPROVING EXPECTATIONS
  • SIGNS SLUMP MODERATING IN FIVE OF 12 DISTRICTS
  • BEIGE BOOK SAYS ECONOMY REMAINED WEAK OR DETERIORATED

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GBPUSD tests 200 hour Moving average. EURUSD tests the 61.8% retracement as well

Written June 10, 2009 at 1:53 PM EST by  

gregmike-03633

The 200 hour MA is 1.6248.  Market is currently testing the level.  A break should lead to further losses.  I would expect some buying against the level.   We will see.

Meanwhile the EURUSD is testing the 61.8% retracement at the 1.3943 level as per previous posts

gregmike-03634

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ECB Hurley on the newswires

Written June 10, 2009 at 1:32 PM EST by  

  • POLICY ONLY ADJUSTED AFTER SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
  • TEMPORARY NEGATIVE INFLATION IN EURO AREA
  • ECB POLICY TO STAY ACCOMMODATIVE AS LONG AS NEEDED
  • ECONOMIC RECOVERY WILL BE GRADUAL
  • EURO AREA Q2 GDP DECLINE SMALLER THAN Q1
  •  ECONOMIC DATA  SOMEWHAT MORE POSITIVE

No great news worthy comments here.

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EURUSD approaches its support at the 1.3934 level

Written June 10, 2009 at 1:13 PM EST by  

gregmike-03632

Look for the market decline to slow at the 1.3934 level.  This level represents the 61.8% Retracement of the last move higher.  The sledding is tough though. A move above 1.4023 (100 hour MA) will reverse the bias.

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Auction over, GBPUSD moves lower

Written June 10, 2009 at 1:11 PM EST by  

gregmike-03631

Price moves through the 1.6292 level making new lows on the day.   The prices next target level is the 1.6248 level where the 200 hour moving average is located.

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