Unconfirmed report from think tank that says BOJ will ease in October.
The USDJPY had been moving higher today and the price has just moved above the resistance at the 76.77 level (38.2% retracement). The next resistance comes at the 76.98. Each time the price has moved to the high end of the range this month, the price action has failed and the fall has been quick. Traders simply do not have the conviction to hold on when the price action stalls.
EURUSD chops around in NY trade
The 1.3630 level is the 100 bar MA on the 45 minute chart (see chart above) and the market has been chopping around the levels since the release of the 8:30 US economic numbers. The latest move has been for the price to move back below the level. The last move higher took the price above the NY high, but that failed (at 1.3650). The NY low is 1.3604 so far. The 38.2% of the days range is at 1.3617. The market bounced off this level, post the economic releases. From a technical perspective short will need to see an effort to get below this level to encourage further selling.
On the hourly chart the 1.3600 is the support from the broken trendline. Being above it and the 100 and 200 hour MA keep the corrective trend in tact for the pair.
USDCAD moves below 100 hour MA
The USDCAD has moved back to and below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0272 level. The Industrial Product prices rose by more than expected today coming in at +0.5% vs -0.5% expected. This may be influencing sentiment. The 1.0203 level is the next close target to give bears confidence to the downside. Yesterday there were 3 lows at the level. Below that, the 1.0156 level is where the 38.2% and the 200 hour MA are found.
The USDCAD has been in a non trending environment this week. The high was reached on Monday. The low on Tuesday. Today, the price extended toward the high but that was rejected. The 100 hour MA is going sideways indicative of the non-trend week.
Markets seem to be trying to get their feet under them this morning.
Fed’s Plosser says Fed moves undermine credibility
- Operation twist will do little for growth and jobs
- Warns against steps that will fuei midterm inflation
- 2% for 2011, sees 3% in 2012
Plosser is known to be a hawk. His comments are at odds with Bernanke.
US Jobless Claims Drop Under 400K to 391K
Jobless Claims: Survey: 420K Actual: 391K Prior: 423K Revised: 428K
Continuing Claims: Survey: 3730K Actual: 3729K Prior: 3727K Revisad: 3749K
(Annualized): Survey: 1.2% Actual: 1.3% Prior: 1.0%
Personal Consumption: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 0.4%
GDP Price Index: Survey: 2.4% Actual: 2.5% Prior: 2.4%
Core PCE QoQ: Survey: 2.2% Actual: 2.3% Prior: 2.2%
The US jobess claims are the surprise but seasonals influence
Falling to 391k with expectations of 420K. This was the lowest since April 1st 2011.
However, the labor department is saying the drop is reflective of calendar issues. As a result seasonal adjustments made the number seem better than it really was
The USD GDP comes in at 1.3% annualized. Consumption was revised to plus 0.7%. Remember this is old news.
Canada IPPI Improves & Raw Materials Fall
Industrial Production Price Index MoM: Survey: -0.5% Actual: 0.5% Prior: -0.3% Revised: -0.4%
Raw Materials Price Index: Survey: -2.5% Actual: -3.2% Prior: -1.2% Revised: -1.1%
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