Tanken Index came out worse then expected
Tanken Manufacturers Index comes out at -9 expected -7,
Non-manufacturing at -5 expected -4
Jpy Core CPI
Jpy Tokyo CPI Y/Y 0.1% expect at 0.2%, Nation CPI Y/Y 0.6% expected 0.5%, unemployment falls down to 4.5% expected out at 4.8%, House hold spending falls to -1.9% expect to come out at -1.7%
Aud AIG comes out at 52.9
REBROADCAST of the Weekly Forex Wrap Up
Greg talks about the Greek situation and the implications to the forex markets (and other market moving events)
Forex Traders Course: Using Fibonacci Retracements Rebroadcast June 30 2011
Forex Traders Course Thursday June 30th 2011 4:00PM TODAY with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell. This will be part 2 of Using Fibonaccis tools. - Watch the rebroadcast
To see part 1 visit http://forex.fxdd.com/training-videos
EUR/USD Reaches Up to Triangle Upper Border
EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Thursday (6/30/2011) has reached up to hit the upper border of a large triangle consolidation pattern with its high at the early May 1.4940 high and its low at the late May 1.3970 low. Price has not only reached the upper border of this triangle, but has also slightly surpassed key resistance around the 1.4500 price region. Therefore, price is currently at a critical juncture. With the last four days showing marked bullishness, the pair should soon experience some form of bearish retracement. Despite any retracement or correction, in the event of a strong breakout above this triangle’s upper border, a clear upside resistance target resides around the 1.4700 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education
FXDD
The NY Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing
Cover the AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURJPY, EURCHF in the Midday Commentary
USDJPY continues the “ups and downs” as the months narrow range prevails
The USDJPY has had an up and down day (or down, up, down day). The last move has taken the price down to the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 80.53. If it can stay above this level, the next up move may start. On the topside, the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart above) beckons at the 80.76 level.
The USDJPY has been in a narrow 186 pip range for the month of June. That range is the most narrow since May 1988 (23 year record) when the range was 155 pips. That is a long time ago. This suggests to me that going forward into July be aware for a break to the upside or the downside and for a high to low range that extends (and could/should be normal or perhaps even larger than normal).
Looking at the monthly chart below, the 1 month Average True Range is by definition the high/low range for the month. Going back to early 2009, the month ranges have had a range of nearly 700 pips on the upside and a low range of 276 pip. Most months were between 350 pips and 550 pips. For July, I would expect that the chances are for a range that is more normal. As a result, look for a break to the upside or the downside to lead to a momentum move in the direction of the break. Non-trending leads to trending. I don’t know what the catalyst will be for the move but be aware and prepared. Follow the clues from the technical tools and anticipate a potential trend like move.
Hoenig recover remains more uncertain and volatile than he would like
- Countries that grow manufacturing base have shown steady growth
- Worried that extended zero rate policy produced new sources of fragility
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