EURUSD moves lower in choppy trading. Eyes key support.

The EURUSD  is down on the day and below the midpoint of the weeks trading range at 1.4084and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4085. This is as good a level to gauge bullish or bearish momentum today along with the 200 bar MA at the 1.4092 level (green line in the chart above). 

The double bottom at the 1.4058 level will be the next key level to get through today for obvious reasons.  Not only is the level important on the 5 minute chart, but looking at the hourly chart the level corresponds with the 50% retracement of the move up from the March 17th low to the high reached on March 22nd.  The importance has increased with the double bottom today.

The fact it sticks out like it does and because the market seems to be choppy/volatile today, there is no reason to not think that the level will find buyers against the level. What bears are hoping however, is that the level is broken and further momentum selling ensues.

Looking at the topside on the hourly chart, the NY sessions ability to stay below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below), gives the nod to the downside. The question is “Will the market have the momentum and sellers to probe further or is the employment report down the road going to be dictate the next trend?”

IMF hikes Eurozone GDP to 1.6% from 1.5%

2012 to 1.8% from 1.7%.

Meanwhile roundtable of CEOs in the US see 2.9% vs 2.5% in 2011. US Growth was cut to 2.8% from 3.0%.  The report is apparently leaked.

 Admittedly, they are different surveys but it makes you wonder why the EURUSD is more near the high than the low?  Even with the decline in the IMF estimate, growth is a full 1.2% percentage points above Eurozone.

Traders Course 11.5 Fibonacci Tools Rebroadcast

Traders Course 11.5 Rebroadcast from March 29th 2011 – Click to watch

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AUDUSD consolidating at the highs

The AUDUSD had a narrow trading range at the top of the range. The pair continues to benefit from a global growth story scenario. Global growth increases, the AUDUSD should benefit. If there are signs of faltering – and the US employment report on Friday will be key – then the pair will likely correct.

From a technical perspective, the price bumped against the underside of a channel trendline on the hourly chart. That level came in at 1.0336. The high for the day came in at 1.0331. Traders had a low risk trading opportunity against the trendline level (sell) . Keep an eye on this trendline for clues on any rallies. A move above will likely lead to more momentum to the upside.

The 5 minute chart is also giving traders some clues today. A trendline off the lows today have lined up nicely and provide a nice borderline to use for trade entry today. Should the trendline give way, there should be further pressure. If it holds, look for continued upside momentum.

On the downside, the 100 hour moving average at 1.0250 remains a key target on any downside momentum. The moving average was tested during yesterdays trading (see blue line in the hourly chart at the top of the page) but buyers were happy to buy at that level. 

On the topside, the high for the day at 1.0332 and the underside of the trendline on the hourly chart currently at the 1.0356 level are target levels.

The AUDUSD was last at these level in 1982.

The NY Morning Call for March 30th 2011

****NOTE. The audio is lost midway through. UGH. Doing another report which will be up shortly. 10:08 ET

Canada RMPI & IPPI Stronger than Prior

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.30.2011

Good Morning:

The Aussie jumped to the highest level against the USD since 1983, when it was freely floated.  With global growth on the upswing-the demand for commodities is also growing.  As the Aussie economy is commodity based, it only makes sense that the Aussie, along with other commodity currencies will benefit from any increase in commodity demand.  Australia and New Zealand have benchmark interest rates of 4.75% and 2.5% respectively, which is attracting investors to these South Pacific nations higher-yielding assets. 
The USD was stronger versus the JPY, as speculation that the Fed will consider scaling back on their QE2 government debt purchase program.
The CHF lost some ground-as investors feel positive regarding an global economic recovery-which takes away the demand for “safe haven” of the currency.

 Worldwide equity markets advanced-and US Futures are higher too.

Oil: $104.35                                                 Gold:$1423.10

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ADP Employment Change Slightly Lower than Forecast

ADP Employment Change:  Survey: 208K    Actual: 201K    Prior: 217K    Revised: 208K

Mar vs. Feb
Small Firms(1-49):  49,022 vs 48,920
Level Change:  102 vs 96
Medium Firms(50-499):  41,817 vs 41,735 
Level Change:  82 vs 101
Large Firms >499):  17,453 vs 17,436
Level Change:  17 vs 11