December 29th 2009 Morning Forex Report is available for viewing

S & P/Case Schiller comes in at -7.28%.

The S&P Case Schiller Home Price index came in at -7.28% for the YoY which is a bit weaker than expectations but should not be a big influence.  The dollar is a bit lower but only a smidge.

Case Schiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM

The expectation is for a rise to 147.0 from 146.51 last month.  This would put the YoY composite at -7.2% vs a -9.36% last month.

EURUSD trends higher today. Support comes in at 1.4413/18.

The EURUSD has come off the high for the day at the 1.4458 in early NY trade. The support comes in at the 1.4413/18 level this morning.  The 38.2% retracement of the days range, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the low correction floor come in at that area.  A break would be a disappointment for the days bulls who have seen the pair trend higher today after breaking above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart in early London trading.  Look for support against these intraday technical levels.  A break below will likely discourage and lead to some profit taking.

On the topside, the next exit target on the bullish highway comes in at the 1.4480 level.  This is the low from October (see chart above).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2009

Good Morning:

The USD dropped against the higher yielding currencies-as signs that the global economic recovery is gaining traction continues.

World wide equity markets rose, and US Futures are higher at this time.  Mining companies rose, while Copper hit a 15 month high.  Speculation that investors aniticipate larger economic growth in 2010 is helping the rally continue.

Oil:$78.68                                                     Gold:$1108.20

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$USDJPY continues to coil in a narrow range. Is a move coming?

The USDJPY is continuing to coil and consolidate.  The non-trending nature of the market action tends to transition to a trend like move.  As a result, we are on alert for a break out. 

On the topside, the 91.76/86 area has been a ceiling over the last 5 trading days.  Back in July the low reached 91.72 (see daily chart below). The market is using the area as a level to pause the move higher which has seen the price move from a low of 84.80 on November 27th to the high of 91.86 reached last week.  A move above this level would next target the 92.32 level which is the high from October 2009.  93.12 would be another upside target level for the pair (50% retracement of the move down from the April high to the November low). 

On the downside, the floor is still being provided by the 100 hour moving average (see blue line in the 1st chart above).  Although the price dipped below this line for the first time since December 18th today, no momentum could be established and the price quickly reversed. The moving average currrently comes in at the 91.58 level.   On a break back below this level, I would expect sellers, but also look for momentum on the break. IF not, get out as the market is telling you it is not ready for a move.  Further support comes in at 91.12/15 and at the 90.79 level (100 DAY moving average).

Keep options open up or down, but know that the longer a market non-trends, the better chance for a trend like move.  SO be on alert for a move up or down.

GBPUSDs rise and fall. What lies ahead for the pound today?

The GBPUSD moved above the 200 day MA at the 1.6040 level today, reached a high of 1.6067 and reversed.  There was a report that JP Morgan was scraping a plan to build a new European headquarter in London citing the unfairness of the 50% tax on bonuses above 25,000 pounds.  London’s economy is largely driven by the financial district.   The fleeing not only by large banks like JP Morgan but also hedge fund managers to more favorable tax havens is a real concern. 

As a result, the GBPUSD fell back down, falling back through the 200 day MA and continuing the fall until hitting the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5980 level (low reached 1.5980).  This level will remain as support for the morning trade and keeps a positive bias for the pair on a interemediate term basis. 

From the shorter term intraday chart, however, the price bias is down.  Watch the 1.6007/15 level where the 200 and 100 bar MAs are located on the 5 minute chart to provide upside resistance early this morning (green and blue line in the chart below).  A move above these levels would not be welcomed by the early bears today.

Look for sellers on rallies, but keep in mind the bounce off the 100 hour moving average gives the dip buyers a reason to be encouraged.    Sell or buy at the extremes given a directional trader bias, but watch for stops on breaks of the key levels.

December 29 2009 Pre-market Forex Report is available for viewing