ECB Trichet on the wires helps move the $EURUSD back higher

• ECB HAS REPUTATION OF SWIFT, DECISIVE ACTION
•  ECB IS UNRESTRICTED IN ITS ABILITY TO TAKE DECISIONS
• SEVERAL MEASURES TO UNWIND NATURALLY
•  ECB WILL WITHDRAW MEASURES ON PRICE-STABILITY THREATS
• ECB STANDS READY TO IMPLEMENT EXIT IF NEEDED
• NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR THE ECB TO EXIT
• IT’S PREMATURE TO DECLARE CRISIS OVER

In a counter to comments from Fed’s Fisher who said the Fed interest rate response could be just as fast as going up as it was coming down, Jean Claude Trichet has thrown his comments in on the reaction that the ECB might employ when the crisis is over.  

Just as the comments from Fisher sent the EURUSD lower, the comments from Trichet has sent the EURUSD back higher. 

Support will continue to be eyed at the 1.4540 level for the EURUSD now that a move below seems to have lost momentum.

USDJPY tests resistance at 90.35 and backs off. Watch this level.

The USDJPY moved up on the back of flight into the dollar and the price tested the 100 hour MA at the 98.35 level.  Also at the level is the 50% retracement of the move down from the September 21st high to the low reached yesterday.  The price has since moved back lower. Watch this level on the upside.

On the downside look for support at the 90.05 level.  Better support comes in at the 89.83/89 where the  100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart is currently located and where Fibonacci support is also found.

US Consumer Confidence comes in weaker

The US Consumer Confidence was weaker than expected and this too is pressuring the currencies (leading to a rise in the US dollar). The expectation was for a gain of 57.0. The actual number came in at 53.1. 

The EURUSD has moved below the key 1.4540 level to a low of 1.4526. There is support at the 1.4518 level which is the 50% of the move up form the September 4th low.   A break below would target the 1.4447 level which is the old high price from August.

Feds Fisher comment sends dollar up

Feds Fisher commented that the Feds reversal of policy could be equal  in speed as seen in its easing.

Housing market is bottoming but still on life support. 

The comment on the Fed reversal has spooked the dollar higher.  However, it is not anticipated that this reversal is imminent. Nevertheless, the EURUSD is back down testing the support at the 1.4540 level

EURUSD moves up to test our target at 1.4578.

The EURUSD had good support at the 1.4540 as per the prior comment (see Prior Post).  The ability to hold the level and move higher is positive for the EURUSD. The corrective move has moved above our first targe at 1.4557 and then to our second target level of 1.4578.  The high reached 1.4575 and has backed off a little.   The corrective move off the 1.4578 level came down to 1.4557 level (low was 1.4558).  Needless to say, the price is in between the support at 1.4558 and the resistance at 1.4578.  Look for the mkt to make the call.

A break higher targets 1.4603.  A move lower, should test key support at 1.4540 again.

Sept 29 2009 Forex Market Update

The EURUSD moved lower. The GBPUSD moved higher. This helped pressure the EURGBP in the process. USDCHF also broke above topside resistance.

USDCHF rally finally takes hold. Price moves above 1.0368. Watch this level today.

The USDCHF finally made a somewhat valient effort to break to the upside. The price moved back above the 1.0368 level (Dec 2008 low price). The move used the 100 hour MA as a springboard for the move higher yesterday.  Both the 100 and 200 hour MA are moving up now and both have converged at the 1.0292 level. The price is at the highest level since September 15th.   The high on September 21st reached 1.0388. 

The correction has upside resistance at the 1.0418/22  level which is the high price on September 14th. The 50% retracement of the move down from the September 4th high to the low comes in at the 1.0443 level.

Longer term, the USDCHF move down from the June 24th high comes in at the 1.0507 level. This is the a longer term target for the pair now that the price has moved back above the 1.0368 level.

On the downside, look for support at the 1.0368 level.  If the price can hold this level, there could be a further spring board effect for the pair.  A move below should find support at the 1.0358 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept. 29.2009

Good Morning:

I was away in Chicago last week and had some technical difficulties with Bobby’s Corner.  All seems to be back on track.

The USD rose as evidence shows that global economies have yet to shed the worst of the global recession,  slowing demand for higher-yielding assets.  Also helping the greenback was the Russian central bank’s decision to lower interest rates, as concerns mount that their is more work needed to spur a recovery in Russia and around the globe.
Additionally, comments from both Japan and Europe reiterated the importance of a strong dollar for the strength of  global economies.

Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is lower at this time, and US futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning after yesterday’s 124 pt increase.

Oil:$66.29                                           Gold:$989.40

Today’s data:
S&P/Case Schiller for July.
Consumer Confidence:          exp: 57.0                  prior: 54.1

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK