Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI in China for the month of September was 54.3 versus its prior reading of 54 and forecast of 55. The market showed some risk aversion on the back of this release moving the risk pairs towards session lows.
Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing Index
The details for Japan’s Tanken Manufacturing Index for Q3 are as follows:
- Tankan Lge Manufacturers Index – Survey: -33 Actual: -33 Prior: -48
- Tankan Non-Manufacturing – Survey: -26 Actual: -24 Prior: -29
- Tankan Lge Mfg Outlook – Survey: -26 Actual: -21 Prior: -30
- Tankan Non- Mfg Outlook – Survey: -22 Actual: -17 Prior: -21
- Tankan Large All Indust Capex – Survey: -9.0% Actual: -10.8% Prior: -9.4%
- Retail Trade (MoM) – Survey: 0.3% Actual: 1.0% Prior: 0.4%
- Retail Trade (YoY) – Survey: -2.4% Actual: -1.8% Prior: -2.5%
- Large Retailer’s Sales – Survey: -7.2% Actual: -6.8% Prior: -8.4%
Overall, the reading was better than expected but the market showed a limited reaction as the risk pairs trade at the top of their range.
Australian AIG Manufacturing Index
Australia’s AIG Manufacturing Index for August was 52; slighty better than the previous release of 51.7. Despite being the highest level since April of 2008 the market had a limited reaction to the release as the AUD trades off highs.
Stock rebound today hurts dollar – I guess. $USDCHF tests MA and finds profit takers
The stock market rebound today from triple digit declines has led to some dollar selling – I guess. The move has led to a steady decline in the USDCHF which saw the pair move down to test the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0341 level. The price reached 1.0338. The rebound has taken the price back up to the 1.0368 level (high 1.0371). The modest correction off the low is worrisome (bear flag?), but the support we targeted against the moving averages has held. So a buy against the 100 bar MA can be initiated, but confidence is not all that great.
Meanwhile, the EURCHF corrected down to the midpoint of the days range and found its support. The 100 bar MA is also approaching that level at the 1.5157 level (low was 1.5154) Look for support with break below.
The intervention in the market today by the SNB was successful in moving the EURCHF to the midpoint of their stated range of 1.5000 to 1.5300. The move today back down to the midpoint that range in hindsight, maybe makes a lot of sense. Which way it goes from here is anyones guess, with day by day flows likely dictating the direction. In the meantime using 1.5157 as initial support is probably the best idea. A break targets 1.5131, then 1.5114.
Sept 30 2009 Forex Midday Report
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Quarter end has the market moving around in a more volatile fashion. Add the SNB intervention and it makes for increased trading risk. So be prepared.
$GBPUSD support against 100 hour MA at 1.5956. Resistance against 1.6013
The GBPUSD has had a volatile ride the NY morning. The pair sold off to test the 100 hour MA, pushed but the support ultimately prevailed. The corrective move higher reached 1.6002, back down to 1.5961 (just above the 100 hour MA) and once again up to 1.6008, jsut shy of 38.2% retracement of the days range. With quarter end causing volatility, location of trades is at a premium, and risk is increased.
Selling against the 1.6013 level (38.2% retracement and buying against the 1.5956 100 hour MA seems the smart, safe move. A break higher targets 1.6034. A break below, 1.5936.
Whoa.. End of 3rd quarter influencing market more than I thought
It seems the flows from the quarter end might be influencing the market a little more than I thought it would. As a result, risk is increased and with it positions should be lessened and monitored cloesly. The GBPUSD broke above resistance at the 1.5987, moved up to the 1.6001 and backed back down to 1.5980 quickly. The AUDUSD moved to a high of 0.8832, bouncing off a low fo 0.8768 and hour prior and back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the0.8813 level. The USDCHF is back down below support at the 1.0383 retracement support level and tests the close form yesterday at the 1.0361 level . HMMM. I am taking a step back and retrenching.
GBPUSD tests target at 1.5987 level
This level corresponds with the the high from yesterday (see prior post). Although the market dipped below the 1.5957 support, the market stalled and found support at the level. The downside should resume after this test although the dollar buying off the SNB buying has faded. It is up to the market now. A move above 1.5987 would target 1.6013 (38.2% retracment of the days range).
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