USDCHF comes back down toward support off the intervention corrective low

The USDCHF is down slightly from Friday’s close but remains stuck in a range.  The 100 and 200 hour Moving average are more or less converged at the 1.0845 level. 

Despite the convergence, there still seems to be an attraction to own Swiss Franc versus the USD.  Perhaps it all hinges on China’s desire to diversify holdings which is keeping the pair more offered (sans intervention at least).  The Swiss Franc would be a currency in the diversification mix.  

The key level for me is the 1.0794 level.  This price  was the low reached on a correction after the initial spike up after the BIS intervention last week.  This level held on Friday and with a low so far of 1.0808 today, the area continues to be a level that needs to be breached today on the downside (and going forward).  So far profit takers are more than happy to buy against the level.

On the topside, look for sellers against the 200 hour MA at the 1.0843 level (green line in chart below).   The 100 hour MA comes  in at 1.0851. 

The market can go either way still as there is little in the way of news. In addition, the outside influences like China and intervention by SNB/BIS, increase trading risks. On July 1st the Swisss PMI data for June will be released.  The expectation is for a rise to 41.0 from 39.8. This would be the highest level since  October 2008.

EURUSD moves higher in up and down session

The downside extension seemed to be the logical move, but as is becoming more and more predictable is the unpredictable.  So instead the upside extension has occurred.

The 1.4077 to the 1.4080 level was the upper end of the range today which saw a low of 1.3983 today reached in the early London session . The NY session narrowed the trading range with a higher low of 1.4042.   The recent move higher has moved the new high to 1.4102 so far at least.  There is the trendline off the June high of 1.4287 that comes in at the 1.4104 level.   Friday’s high reached 1.4117.     Above those levels is 1.4138.  The bias  is to the upside, however, profit takers are still eager to take the money when it is available.

USDJPY moves higher as the same fundamentals (oil and stocks) help

The USDJPY has taken another step higher as higher oil and supported stock market hurt Yen in quiet trade.  The pair is now testing the 61.8% retracement of the move down from Thursdays high to Friday’s low.  That level comes in at 95.98.    Above the level will target the next level at the 96.23.   This is trendline resistance for the pair.

June 29 2009 Midday Report

Madoff watch is over as judge gives the maximum

Madoff has been sentenced to 150 years.   Recovered assets to go back to the victims.   The Madoff story reminds us of the wrongs that took over the last few decades.  He will be the poster child of the age.

USDJPY remains supported. EURUSD comes back down

The USDJPY has continued the move higher as shorts are forced to cover. 

Meanwhile the EURUSD comes off the high level at the 1.4080 level (old high was 1.4077)  See prior post.   The downside becomes the focus once again.  The NY range has 1.4042 as the low.  The high is 1.4080.    It is likely the range will be extended.  On the downside the next support comes in at 1.4020 to 1.4024.

USDJPY Moves higher on higher oil/higher stocks.

The USDJPY moves higher as stocks extend gains and oil prices move higher.  Higher oil hurts the Yen as Japan imports all its oil for consumption.  Higher oil prices therefore is negative for the economy/currency.   The next level of resistance comes in at 95.80.  This is the midpoint of the move down on Thursday and Friday.  It is also where the 200 hour MA (currently at 95.84) is located.

Australia’s minors iron ore contract with China set to expire.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/iron-ore-price-talks-with-china-in-tatters-20090629-d2i1.html

This is an interesting article from the Sydney Morning Herald regarding iron ore contracts with Australian mines.  The report outlines how despite the imminent contract expiration of the last price contract with China, there is no new one in place to roll into.  Furthermore, the countries are “miles away from sealing a last minute deal”.  China is the world’s largest importer of iron ore.

The implications could be bearish for the AUDUSD although with the AUDUSD moving higher now, the market does not seem to be concerned.  Nevertheless, trendline resistance is at 0.8077 and bottom side support comes in at 0.7998 where the 100 hour and trendline support is currently located.