Forex News Employment in Germany was stronger last night

Last night, the German unemployment rate was announced and it  declined once again to its lowest level in 15 years coming in at 8.0%.  In addition, a higher than expected 75,000 people were eliminated from being jobless.  

Exports and domestic investment are sustaining payroll growth in Europe’s biggest economy even though there is slower global growth, record oil prices and a strong euro.   Germany is the Eurozone’s biggest economy and one of the world’s largest exporter. 

As long as growth in the Europe remains strong and inflation remains above the ECBs target, the Central Bank will remain on hold and this should further support the EUR.

Forex News US Help Wanted Index to be released at 10:00 AM

Another employment measure will be announced at 10:00 AM when the January US Help Wanted Index will be released.  This statistic measures the level of advertising for jobs in US newspapers.     Last month the index rose slightly to 22 from a record low of 21 in December.  Although the released will be watched by the market for clues to the employment situation in the US, the statistic is a bit misleading as print advertisement is losing job listings to the internet.  Nevertheless, expectations for this month are for the index to fall to the record low of 21 once again.

Forex News US Initial and Continuing Claims to be released at 8:30 AM

In what will be a key release for today, the weekly Initial Claims data will also be announced at 8:30 AM.  The initial claims has been rising of late with the 4 week moving average moving to 360,500, the highest level since October 2005 and up from 310,000 in October 2007. 

During the 2001 recession, the jobless claims centered around 400,000.  Although we are below that level, the economic backdrop caused by the housing and financial markets have the markets worried about employment.

This week expectations are for a slight rise to 350,000.

 The number of Continuing Claims for employment rose to 2,785,000 last week indicating that people unemployed are remaining unemployed.  This was also the highest level since October 2005.  This week expectations are for the level to remain unchanged. 

Forex News US GDP to be released at 8:30 AM

At 8:30 the first revision to the US GDP for the 4^th quarter will be announced.   Although the market will analyze the figure, the effect to the rates should be muted as the market is more focused on growth in the current quarter.   Nevertheless, the expectations are for the measure to be bumped up to 0.8% from 0.6% as a positive contribution from the trade balance adds to the quarters growth.  Personal Consumption, which represents approximately 2/3^rd of GDP is expected to remain unchanged at a tepid plus 2.0%.

Also announced will be the GDP Price index.  This statistic measures the annualized quarterly rate of inflation for all economic activity. The deflator is used to calculate the difference between nominal and real, or inflation adjusted, GDP.

Forex News FOMC’s Bernanke to testify in the US Senate

Thursday will be dominated once again by the second day of FOMC Chairman Bernanke’s visit to Capitol Hill at 10:00 AM.  This time he will be speaking in the Senate.  Expectations are for Chairman to reiterate much that was said on Wednesday.  However, there is always a chance for some new insight –especially if the chairman thought some of his previous testimony was misinterpreted (he was very clear however).

Bernanke certainly left the door wide open for eases as the risks to growth are the greatest. 

Forex News Economic Statistics and Events for today

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