Forex News Next week in the forex market
As we head in the close, it is time to look to next week.
The week next week will have a number of central bank meetings where interest rate decisions will be made. Australia (a 25 basis point raise), New Zealand (no change), Canada (a chance for 50 basis point cut), ECB (no cut) and Bank of England (no cut but more inclined to ease down the road) all have meetings.
At the beginning and middle of the week the US ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Non-Manufacturing Indices will be released (Wednesday). Both are expected to be below 50, the key level between expanding and contracting in those industries.
The Feds Biege book comes out on Wednesday at 2:00 PM. The Biege book is a general, anecdotal summary of the current economic conditions in the Federal Reserve disticts. It is generally used by the FOMC at their next FOMC meeting.
Finally, we have the US employment statistics on Friday. The early expectations are for a rise of 30,000 jobs versus the surprise 17,000 decline last month. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5.0% from 4.9%.
What we do know from this week is there is a lot of fear in the market, that there are things happening in the credit markets which are not normal, and that the housing market in the US is not getting any better (in fact it got worse). The employment news next week will either make things a touch better or provide the confirmation that the job market has started to be affected by the housing and credit turmoil.
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Forex Trading USDJPY and USDCHF move lower as stocks head down further
The USDJPY and USDCHF along with Yen crosses and CHF crosses all move lower as the stock market continues to slide. The markets are still not stable with liquidation in muni market starting to manifest itself in the equity markets. The CHF is finding support as a safe haven currency. The risks are clear. The market is subject to volatility but the trends are continuing to remain the same.
Forex News Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart on the wires
Highlights from Lockhart:
- Housing slump raises concern for consumer loans
- It’s difficult to determine when markets will stabilize
- Markets evolving positively, but still fragile
- Investors will regain confidence in time
- Generally favorable economy to calm market concern
Forex Trading EURUSD reach a temporary top?
Picking extremes is tough, but the EURUSD is settling below the 21 hour moving average at 1.5191. This level should provide resistance. If it gives way on the upside, don’t fade it.
Forex News University of Michigan Consumer index came out at 70.8
This is up from the preliminary survey but still at LOW levels.
Forex Trading USDJPY possible low level
It is never good to try and catch a falling knife. However, the USDJPY is getting close to the bottom of the trendline support for a patient buyer.
With it being Friday there is often squaring up for the week from the EURO/London crowd. That occurs between 11:00 and 12:00 ET. With the oversized moves over the last few days, the movement can result in some wild swings. So be alert.
Forex News Chicago PMI 44.5 much worse than expected
This is congruent with the other PMI surprises from other regions (Empire State, Philadelphia). All the pieces are bad in Chicago.
Feb Jan
Business barometer 44.5 51.5
Prices paid 79.4 81.7
Production 46.5 51.3
New orders 48.8 44.7
Order backlogs 38.3 48.0
Inventories 46.0 51.1
Employment 33.5 47.0
Supplier deliveries 39.6 61.7
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