Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.7.2011
Good Morning:
With speculation growing that the banking sector in the European Union will get the financial support they need to keep their operations running smoothly, kept the Euro in positive territory this week. With the ECB reintroducing yearlong loans along with resuming the purchasing of covered bonds should help the banks continue their ability to lend funds.
The Non Farm payroll data that is expected to be released at 8:30 AM this morning should show an increase of 55K , as the private sector is expected to show an increase of 90K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 9.1%. With no change last month-any sign of growth will be a welcome sign to the marketplace.
The lack of confidence by both consumers and businesses has been curtailing hiring and spending accross the board.
World equity markets were higher, and US Futures are slightly lower this morning.
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | ||||
| 8:30A.M. | CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS | SEPT. | 55K | OK | |||
| 8:30A.M. | CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS | SEPT. | 90K | 17K | |||
| 8:30A.M. | CHANGE IN MANUFACT.PAYROLLS | SEPT. | OK | -3K | |||
| 8:30A.M. | UNEMPLOYMENT RATE | SEPT. | 9.10% | 9.10% | |||
| 8:30A.M. | AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MOM ALL EMP/ | SEPT. | 0.20% | -0.10% | |||
| 8:30A.M. | AVG. HOURLY EARNING YOY ALL EMP | SEPT. | 1.90% | 1.90% | |||
| 8:30A.M. | AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES | SEPT. | 34.2O | 34.2O | |||
| 10:00A.M. | WHOLESALE INVENTORIES | AUG. | 0.60% | 0.80% | |||
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.6.2011
Good Morning:
In a move that makes no common sense-the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 1.5%. The markets were expecting a 25 basis point cut to help spur economic activity in the depressed Euro Zone’s economy. With the EU’s banking sector in tatters-you would think they would react logically and lower rates versus looking for other monetary easing policies to help lift their economies.
With Greece on the verge of a potential default-the European community is looking for it’s member countries to work in a coordinated effort to inject needed capital into the banking sector. With European banks heavily burdened with Greek (along with Spanish, Irish,Portuguese and Italian) debt, the fear of the further tightening of bank funding along with the overall credit markets is a major global concern.
In other news across the pond-the BOE left interest rates unchanged at .5%. They also added additional QE (Quantitative Easing) to their ongoing monetary easing policy. With the BOE seeing inflation rising, along with a potential strain in bank funding in the coming months-they felt compelled to add addition QE without lowering interest rates at this time.
All eyes will be looking for any additional indication on whats tomorrow’s non farm payroll and unemployment data will be.
I was very sad to hear of the death of Steve Jobs from Apple-he really was a visionary.
World equity markets are higher and US Futures are also higher at this time.
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 7:00A.M. | BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION | |||||
| 7:45A.M. | ECB RATE DECISION | |||||
| 8:30A.M. | ECB PRESS CONFERENCE | |||||
| 8:30A.M. | INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS | OCT.1 | 410K | 391K | ||
| 8:30A.M. | CONTINUING CLAIMS | 24-Sep | 3725K | 3729K | ||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.5.2011
Good Morning:
A fairly calm overnight session-especially after yesterday’s see saw in the US equity markets. For those who missed it-the Dow was off as much as 260 points-but in the latter part of the day the markets rallied to end the day 150 points higher.
The Euro picked up-after declining against the USD. It is now back in the mid 1.33 level. The GBP lost ground, and moved to the lowest level against the USD in almost 1 year. UK government data indicated that the economy grew less than expected last quarter. This will add pressure to the Bank of England to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Rumors in the market point to the BOE continuing, if not increasing, it’s bond purchasing program. Additionally, some Asian currencies are seeing strength, as investors anticipate continued monetary easing in Europe and the US to boost the struggling world economies.
World equity markets rose, and US Futures are also higher at this time.
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 7:00A.M. | MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS | 30-Sep | 9.30% | |||
| 7:30A.M. | CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY | SEPT. | 47.00% | |||
| 8:15A.M. | ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE | SEPT. | 70K | 91K | ||
| 10:00A.M. | ISM NON-MANUF. COMPOSITE | SEPT. | 52.8O | 53.3O | ||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2011
Good Morning:
World equity markets continue to take a beating as Asian, along with European indexes stayed lower. US Futures are also lower by over 100 points at this time. Dexia stock (The French-Belgium bank) lost almost 40% of it’s value, as their exposure to Greek debt seems to be larger than originally thought. The Euro tumbled on the heels of the Dexia crisis.
The French government has commented that Dexia has liquidity problems, not solvency problem. Either way-Dexia has major problems on their hands.
The S&P index is now within 1% of being considered a “bear market”. With countries around the world running out of options to keep their economies afloat-worldwide indexes are all about to enter a “bear market” period.
The USD is fairing very well among the world’s chaos, as investors seek the safe haven of US Treasuries and the greenback.
Oil is lower-while Gold and Silver remain higher.
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 10:00A.M. | FACTORY ORDERS | AUG. | 0.00% | 2.40% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | BERNANKE TO TESTIFY ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK | |||||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.3.2011
Good Morning:
Fears of a default by Greece has pushed the Euro to a 8 month low versus the USD. The Euro’s decline was it’s steepest since June 2010.
Questions regarding Greece’s ability to secure additional bailout funds on the heels of fresh budget cuts made by the Greek government are on the forefront of most investors thoughts these days.
The main issue is that weak growth prospects in Greece’s economy, along with additional cuts in Greek government spending, and additional taxes being placed on the Greek population are all leading to economic failure.
The cost of an EU bailout, along with keeping the debt crisis from spreading larger will not only take a lot of time-it will take a lot of money-most certainly more than the 440 billion Euros that have been agreed to so far.
In other European banking news-Dexia Bank -the French-Belgian Bank has been placed on a downgrade watch by Moody’s.
Moody’s already downgraded Soc Gen and Credit Agricole’s long term rating in September. This just adds to the woes of the French Banking sector-which is rumored to be exposed to Greek debt in a big way.
World equity markets were and are mostly lower-at this time-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning.
Gold and silver are higher-Oil is lower at this time.
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.28.2011
Good Morning:
The Euro had an impressive comeback this morning-even with the Greek debt issue, and the European banks needing additional capital-the markets perceive that the EU will come to the rescue.
The Greek Parliament passed the controversial property tax bill, that was needed to be passed in order for the country to avoid a default, and continue to get additional bailout funds.
On the US political front-the Obama administration’s $447 billion jobs plan is still being worked on, and hopefully this will lower the unemployment rate-and get people back to work.
As the plan is based on tax cuts-many investors are concerned that once the tax breaks end, there will be a big jump in taxes. This may work in the short end- but the long term effect may be disastrous-as we try to pay for this, along with our other overwhelming outstanding debt obligations.
Durable Goods orders came out at -.1% for August. July orders were revised to 4% versus 4.1%.
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2011
Good Morning:
The Aussie and Kiwi rallied in overnight trading-as Asian equity markets also rallied-indicating that investors are seeking higher-yielding assets in these uncertain economic times.
In Euro Zone business-The Greek Finance Minister stated that the EU should stick with the deal that was agreed to in July. He feels that the EZ should be focused on growth-not looking for a default. The Greek Parliament has a vote scheduled today regarding additional austerity measures that were imposed by the ECB,EU and IMF so that additional bailout funds can be distributed to the country. One of the austerity measures is a new property tax which is going to be a tough sell to their fellow countrymen-but is expected to pass during today’s vote.
World equity markets rallied, as US Futures are also posting higher numbers as we speak. So it looks like the equity markets will open higher-and let’s hope they stay that way during the day.
Gold and Oil are also trading in positive territory this morning.
| TODAY’S RELEASES | ||||||
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P /CS 20 CITY MoM%SA | JULY | 0.10% | -0.06% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P /CS COMPOSITE 20 YoY | JULY | -4.55% | -4.52% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P /CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND | JULY | 141.3O | |||
| 10:00A.M. | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | SEPT. | 46.O | 44.5O | ||
| 10:00A.M. | RICHMOND FED MANUFAC.INDEX | SEPT. | -9.O | -1O.O | ||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.23,2011
Good Morning:
The overnight session continued to be voiltile after European equities started the day higher-then gave up those gains and then more.
The Euro also showed some strength early on, but those gains were also given up.
European banks are one of the main catalyst for the sell off in the equity markets for the past few days, as investors look to see the status of their balance sheets.
Moody’s downgraded long-term deposit and senior debt rating of eight Greek banks-I guess that took nobody by surprise.
The G-20 pledged a “strong and coordinated” response to the weak global economy-but that only raised an eyebrow or 2 before it was forgotten.
Oil dropped under $80/barrel and Gold is under $1700/oz presently.
With the global economies in turmoil-lots of talk that we are in or going into a double-dip recession are all reasons for the global sell off.
Until the markets see some tangible monetary policies implemented, the turmoil will continue.
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK
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